[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

I think it very unlikely there was or ever has been any Lib to Con movement.  The conservative progressives went liberal a long time ago, and it is very unlikely they would ever come back while the reformist wing of the party controls things.

The growth in the Conservative vote comes from two sources. The collapse of the NDP and the utter destruction of the Peoples Party. 

I personally know a number of people who are "never-NDP" types who see themselves as pragmatic, who voted for the Liberals in the past, got sick of Trudeau, and intended to vote for Poilievre. Some of them got pulled back by Carney, but I expect not all of them.

Yes, you are describing almost all of the progressive conservative vote if Trudeau had remained.  That is why the Conservatives were so far ahead in the polls at the time.  But that potential outcome never happened because Trudeau stepped down.

[Jacob]

Yes, you are describing almost all of the progressive conservative vote if Trudeau had remained.  That is why the Conservatives were so far ahead in the polls at the time.  But that potential outcome never happened because Trudeau stepped down.

My thesis is that no everyone in that camp were convinced by Carney, even if many (and possibly most) were.

[crazy canuck]

Yes, you are describing almost all of the progressive conservative vote if Trudeau had remained.  That is why the Conservatives were so far ahead in the polls at the time.  But that potential outcome never happened because Trudeau stepped down.

My thesis is that no everyone in that camp were convinced by Carney, even if many (and possibly most) were.

The election result tells a different story. There may be outliers like Bauer, but the vast majority of the increase in Conservative vote came from the two sources I already described.

Put another way, your thesis requires the NDP vote to go mainly to the Liberals and the Liberals to lose votes to the Conservatives.  Otherwise the Liberals would not have ended up with the vote totals they received, but that didn't happen.

[crazy canuck]

Just checked, and still no updated totals. Anyone else know what is holding up the final count in those last ridings?

[Jacob]

The election result tels a different story. There may be outliers like Bauer, but the vast majority of the increase in Conservative vote came from the two sources I already described.

Put another way, your thesis requires the NDP vote to mainly to the Liberals and the Liberals to lose votes to the Conservatives.  Otherwise the Liberals would not have ended up with the vote totals they received, but that didn't happen.

I expect the PPC vote went almost exclusively to the Conservatives, if they didn't stay home. So I think we agree there.

As for the collapsing NDP vote there are two scenarios, as I think we also agree:

• Former NDP voters went directly to the Conservatives ("the CPC are for working people" and never-Liberal voters).
• Former NDP voters went to the Liberals ("let's not split the ABC vote" and "Carney seems competent) while a number of former Liberal votes went Conservate ("I'm sick of the Liberals and I don't like the NDP").

Realistically there are at least some people in each of those categories (anecdotally I know people in both categories). Personally I haven't seen enough data to be confident whether either one of those dominated (nor which one).

[crazy canuck]

The way I look at it is we know generally what the core Liberal vote was based on their nadir in the polls just before Trudeau resigned. We also know what the Conservative max was by looking at their polling numbers in that same period of time.

What best explains the growth in the Liberal support and the decline in the Conservative support from those numbers is that a lot of the Conservative support went to the Liberals.  It certainly did not go to any of the other parties.

That is why I say that if there was some Liberal leakage to the Conservatives, it was very minor.

[saskganesh]

Before my time but how popular was the NDP before Layton?

In the mid 80's, Ed Broadbent was deigned "the most popular leader in Canada". Everyone liked and respected him. and opinion polls briefly put the NDP in first place! But when the writ rubber hit the electoral road, it did not translate into votes. Broadbent did win a then record 43 seats in the existential Free Trade election of 88, but NDP remained the third party. They had almost no support in Quebec.

[saskganesh]

Poilievre is not done. Sure he blew a huge lead, and he lost his own seat, but he can point to various gains. The party loyalists will support him. And then he can have a rousing comeback narrative arc if Carney has trouble.

[saskganesh]

I also thought it was ... nice, that CBC had Jason Kenney on their election panel. He seemed to be having a good time.

[saskganesh]

Sensationalist left wing rag reports that Poilievre may also be homeless. No more butler. Too funny.


https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/federal_election/poilievre-loses-his-seat-after-indicating-plans-to-remain-party-leader-as-liberals-win

[Grey Fox]

Nonsense, him & his wife provide housing to other MPs.

[Valmy]

Woah. Lots of votes just got counted.

Libs won the riding of Terrebonne by just 35 votes. If that was an American election we would then waste tons of money by arguing about in court for months.

[crazy canuck]

Before my time but how popular was the NDP before Layton?

In the mid 80's, Ed Broadbent was deigned "the most popular leader in Canada". Everyone liked and respected him. and opinion polls briefly put the NDP in first place! But when the writ rubber hit the electoral road, it did not translate into votes. Broadbent did win a then record 43 seats in the existential Free Trade election of 88, but NDP remained the third party. They had almost no support in Quebec.

Yeah, Broadbent was widely viewed as the best PM Canada never had. Admired by all, voted for by few.

[crazy canuck]

Woah. Lots of votes just got counted.

Libs won the riding of Terrebonne by just 35 votes. If that was an American election we would then waste tons of money by arguing about in court for months.

Wow, it looks like they are going to hit 172 exactly -  May for Speaker...

note, assuming the remaining ballots break about the same way, flipping some of the remaining Con seats that have yet to be decided.

[Valmy]

CBC calls 166 for Libs and 6 for the NDP so they could form a coalition.

Still 8 ridings left to call.