[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Jacob]

Well done Canada.
Though you really aught to fix that fptp business.

I see mention in the thread of NDP supporters voting Conservative. This makes no sense to me. Accelerationists?

As I mentioned in an earlier post, Poilievre and his team spoke a lot about being "for the single mother working two jobs, for young families unable to afford a house" as well as "people afraid to leave their homes due to the rising wave of crime".

Whether that's something reflected in reality or not, the rhetoric is going to be appealing to a certain segment of NDP voters.

Additionally there's probably also a segment of anti-Trudeau/ never-Liberals out there who voted NDP last time and resented to coalition.

Lastly I expect the numbers also reflect some NDP --> Lib and Lib --> Con movement.

[crazy canuck]

I think it very unlikely there was or ever has been any Lib to Con movement.  The conservative progressives went liberal a long time ago, and it is very unlikely they would ever come back while the reformist wing of the party controls things.

The growth in the Conservative vote comes from two sources. The collapse of the NDP and the utter destruction of the Peoples Party. 

[Valmy]

I got the answer as to why it has taken so long for the vote to come in. Election Canada stop the vote count at some point last night and it will resume at 9:30 Eastern this morning. So in a couple of hours, we will know.

Not much seems to be happening, vote counting wise.

[crazy canuck]

 

My feelings exactly

edit: I wonder if those few ridings just put off counting all the advance poll ballots until today.  That would explain the delay in getting the final count.

[Barrister]

Well done Canada.
Though you really aught to fix that fptp business.

I see mention in the thread of NDP voting Conservative. This makes no sense to me. Accelerationists?

I think it's a big segment of the population who votes for who they feel fights for the little guy.

The majority of voters just don't think in ideological terms.  They're not thinking right-center-left.

So Conservative / NDP swing voters really come down to two factors:

1. Thsis more Western Canada, but the Liberals at times are just a non-factor.  In the last few Alberta provincial elections it's a choice between the Conservatives and the NDP.

2. As Bauer points out, to some people both the NDP and the Conservatives are seen as standing up for "the little guy".  The Liberals are the party of big business, the big banks, Power Corp, etc.

Whereas (at least traditionally) the NDP was the party of organized labour, while the Conservatives were more the party of small business and farmers.  Now obviously this is talking about "vibes" and "sentiment", not hard and fast ideologies, but you can see the overlap here.

This is actually where I think the NDP has gone wrong.  Again historically, because they were the party of organized labour, they had much more nuanced views on hot-button issues like gun control (lots of working men like to hunt) or immigration.  The NDP has gone much more ideologically leftist it's lost that image.

[Barrister]

The growth in the Conservative vote comes from two sources. The collapse of the NDP and the utter destruction of the Peoples Party. 

Hypothesis - the collapse of the PPC wasn't some accident, but the result of the policies and strategies of Poilievre to appeal to those voters.

I can't wait to see the final numbers, but it does look like both the Conservatives and the Liberals increased their vote totals from 2021.

[Josephus]

A lot of traditional "labour" supporters tend to be less educated, and supporters of populist ideologies. The guys taking part in the truck convoy weren't doctors and lawyers. In my heavy labour riding, a lot of people talk about Poilievre as being the guy who can bring crime rates down, limit immigration, bring prices down etc. And, I hate to say it, there's probably a bit of racism as to why they don't vote NDP.

[Valmy]

The growth in the Conservative vote comes from two sources. The collapse of the NDP and the utter destruction of the Peoples Party. 

Hypothesis - the collapse of the PPC wasn't some accident, but the result of the policies and strategies of Poilievre to appeal to those voters.

I can't wait to see the final numbers, but it does look like both the Conservatives and the Liberals increased their vote totals from 2021.

Just the number of votes already counted blows them away.

8.3 million for the Libs vs. 5.5 million in 2021
7.9 million for the Cons vs. 5.7 million in 2021

[Valmy]

Singh stepping down as NDP leader:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal-elections/jagmeet-singh-to-step-down-as-ndp-leader-after-losing-seat/article_fa3b8c61-dfee-52d8-936a-0e18cf6cd122.html

No surprise there.

[HVC]

Before my time but how popular was the NDP before Layton?

[Jacob]

I think it very unlikely there was or ever has been any Lib to Con movement.  The conservative progressives went liberal a long time ago, and it is very unlikely they would ever come back while the reformist wing of the party controls things.

The growth in the Conservative vote comes from two sources. The collapse of the NDP and the utter destruction of the Peoples Party. 

I personally know a number of people who are "never-NDP" types who see themselves as pragmatic, who voted for the Liberals in the past, got sick of Trudeau, and intended to vote for Poilievre. Some of them got pulled back by Carney, but I expect not all of them.

[Jacob]

This is actually where I think the NDP has gone wrong.  Again historically, because they were the party of organized labour, they had much more nuanced views on hot-button issues like gun control (lots of working men like to hunt) or immigration.  The NDP has gone much more ideologically leftist it's lost that image.

I tend to agree, even if my more progressive friends don't. The NDP needs a solid Charlie Angus type presence.

I actually like Singh and think he's an intelligent, passionate, and very very decent human being - but when he speaks of "working people" he sounds a little too formulaic to my ears.

[Jacob]

Hypothesis - the collapse of the PPC wasn't some accident, but the result of the policies and strategies of Poilievre to appeal to those voters.

Several CBC analysts agreed with your take here - that this was a deliberate (and effective) political choice by the CPC. The interesting bit is going to be whether the CPC leadership feels this will allow them to tack a bit more towards the centre to expand their vote, or whether they really want to lock down the right flank by committing to it.

I can't wait to see the final numbers, but it does look like both the Conservatives and the Liberals increased their vote totals from 2021.

Yeah, the popular vote was quite close.

Both Carney and Poilievre spoke about working together to defend Canada, while Poilievre (obviously) also spoke about holding the government to account (as he should). It'll be very interesting to see to what degree the two parties will be able to find common ground to protect the national interest vs fighting to increase the political positioning.

Personally, I'd be pleased with seeing a reasonable consensus on defense rather than partisan positioning, and I think there's potentially some infrastructure / trade stuff where it'd be positive as well... but... while the speeches indicated a theoretical willingness to collaborate for the common good, Canadian political history doesn't leave me super optimistic on that front.

[crazy canuck]

The growth in the Conservative vote comes from two sources. The collapse of the NDP and the utter destruction of the Peoples Party. 

Hypothesis - the collapse of the PPC wasn't some accident, but the result of the policies and strategies of Poilievre to appeal to those voters.

I agree entirely.  The question is, was the drift to the extreme right worth it in the long run? Time will tell. And I really hope not.

[Bauer]

I think it very unlikely there was or ever has been any Lib to Con movement.  The conservative progressives went liberal a long time ago, and it is very unlikely they would ever come back while the reformist wing of the party controls things.

The growth in the Conservative vote comes from two sources. The collapse of the NDP and the utter destruction of the Peoples Party. 

I personally know a number of people who are "never_NDP" types who see themselves as pragmatic, who voted for the Liberals in the past, got sick of Trudeau, and intended to vote for Poilievre. Some of them got pulled back by Carney, but I expect not all of them.

That's basically me.  CC also underestimating the simple change desire.  Everyone gets tired of a party /leader after awhile especially when performance has been poor.  Sometimes it's as simple as that.  Carneys resume and image of a steady hand reversed the trend.