What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[viper37]

Nikkei 227 and Topix have plunged over 7% triggering the circuit breaker.  Meltdown incoming.

If the GOPtards don't react for this, nothing will wake them up.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

US warns EU against excluding American companies from € 150 billion defense initiative which can supply Ukraine with weapons

Please keep buying from us or we will stop the shipments in the middle of a war!

The amis should just shut up, cause they're only making it worse by yapping. But of course the cheese puff in chief can't,  and neither can the rest of clique.
Shame the graves of the founding fathers aren't hooked up to the power grid, you'd have full green energy they're spinning so hard 

[Josquius]

(snip)

I think that may be shifting and I think Republicans are over-interpreting their victory. It was a narrow victory, there has been a profound (and perhaps lasting) vibe shift at a cultural/corporate level - but they're behaving and crowing like this is FDR and the first hundred days. That is not the mandate they have and, frankly, that's reflected in so much of the action being through executive orders of questionable legitimacy and effectiveness v legislation from Congress.

This, I think is the key blind spot of the MAGAts. They fail to realize that everyone else realizes that, e.g. tariffs imposed by whim are understood to be purely whimsical. No one is going to invest billions of dollars over five years to build a factory in the US with the hope that Trump's whims don't ruin their plans. Tariffs enacted legally, through legislation, cannot be ended on a whim. Those are viewed as legitimate tariffs, not whimsical ones.  That is why they did result in production shifts (not always wisely, but that's a different story).

Even if we ignore that they've a big delusion of what this means. They think the clock can just be turned back the 60s at work with good factory jobs (man are they fetishising that) paying enough to support a family.... Yet expecting the world outside work not to see everything costing 5 times as much to match.

I'm really hoping for an unintended positive side back of a move away from disposable culture back towards buying things to last.

[grumbler]

The fact that US manufacturing by real value peaked in 2023 is ignored by the MAGAts.  They are so focused on manufacturing as a percentage of GDP that they act as though growth of the denominator is bad.

Modern manufacturing does not provide many jobs. And new plants will be even more automated than existing ones.

[viper37]

EU hits back at Trump's trade war with US$28 billion in planned tariffs on US imports

The first phase is due for April 15th.

Another phase will hit in May.

The 50% tariff on Bourbon will hit hard in Kentucky.

They didn't take the Canada warning seriously at first.  But one distillery has already had to shut down due to the tariff war when we removed all of their products from our shelves and stopped ordering.

Now, it's Europe.

Next, we await the UK's reponse...

For Bourbon, 5 of their 10 importers are European (EU) countries.  Canada was 7th.  UK is 1st.  Japan is 2nd.  Singapore is the 10th.

If the UK and Japan retaliate, there won't be much of an export market left for Kentucky Bourbon.

[Threviel]

I for one accept and support any and all measures against the Americans, even if we shoot ourselves in the foot. I'd rather eat gruel than let the Americans get away with this shit.

[HVC]

At this point I almost feel bad for Kentucky's democratic governor. Almost.

Start putting large tariffs us tech firms. apple and Microsoft are easy, not sure how you get to Google. Or Amazon, although the China tariffs will hit Amazon  anyway. 

[The Minsky Moment]

The US is at full employment in economic terms and has been since the COVID bounce back.  The native population is not growing and obviously this administration is restricting immigration and deporting everyone they can.

Thus, the only way for manufacturing employment to rise is to divert employment from the service sector. It's not clear why this would be optimal economically.  If the objective is to "reshore" jobs fitting "little screws into iPhones" as Howard Lutnick proposed then it is clearly suboptimal.

The mythology of manufacturing >> services does not meet the reality test -- when parents dream of great futures for their children it is as doctors, architects, scientists, lawyers, software engineers.  Not working shifts in a textile factory.

Proponents of manufacturing as against services imagine Uber drivers and precarious gig economy workers seamlessly slotting into high quality factory jobs at shiny steel mills.  This is a fantasy for lots of reasons.  We have Uber drivers and will always have them as long as there is a demand for short term car hire and the market is relatively unregulated. That will not change unless or until it is automated.  The prices may go up or down but demand will always generate supply. To move those jobs into manufacturing the latter must pay more - but already the current trend is stagnant growth in manufacturing productivity, and forced growth in manufacturing through tariffs will mean less marginally efficient production.  The only way such a labor shift will happen involves prices increasing in both sectors and an overall decline in output across the economy.  And that is also not taking account the job mismatch problem - modern US manufacturing jobs tend to be skilled jobs managing automated processes. Even in the mills, lots of collars stay white.  The administration is simultaneously gutting job retraining initiatives and education support, exacerbating the skills mismatch problem.

There is a case for more manufacturing and mining in the US but it is a strategic one, not an economic one. That was why the Biden industrial policy was more in keeping with the rhetoric used to justify the Trump policy than the Trump policy itself. For strategic reasons, the US probably should ensure sufficient production of key commodities, including shipbuilding.  But the Trump policy actually hinders this kind of policy.

[Zanza]

I for one accept and support any and all measures against the Americans, even if we shoot ourselves in the foot. I'd rather eat gruel than let the Americans get away with this shit.

No, thanks. The EU should of course react, but I would rather not participate in American mistakes. An appropriate reaction short term is some fake deal to remove or reduce tariffs. Mid term, we need to get our economy going again (the Draghi report) and long term strategic autonomy, i.e. own internet hyperscaler, less dependency on fossil fuels, access to raw materials....

[HVC]

If you want to keep dependency on fossil fuels Canada's here. It'd really help us out

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think that Europe would love to buy all those Canadian resources. But there is a need for a lot of infrastructure for Canada to point towards Europe.

[HVC]

I think that Europe would love to buy all those Canadian resources. But there is a need for a lot of infrastructure for Canada to point towards Europe.

Yeah, the infrastructure has to be built. Lend-lease? Probably also have to bribe Quebec.

[crazy canuck]

I think that Europe would love to buy all those Canadian resources. But there is a need for a lot of infrastructure for Canada to point towards Europe.

Yeah, we are likely going to have a bit of an economic boom over the next 5 to 10 years as government funds the development of that infrastructure.

Well, assuming the Conservatives don't win the next election and double down on the relationship with the United States.

[Syt]

UK's Channel 4 explains US tariffs using Warhammer 40K miniatures:

https://www.tiktok.com/@c4news/video/7489409400201841942

[Richard Hakluyt]

Games Workshop typically has a gross profit margin of 70%, so they could maintain prices to US consumers relatively easily and still make money. But I also think that demand for their products is inelastic so they can let American consumers take the hit (probably).