What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Iormlund]

Audi? Guess Porsche will follow?

Porsche is much more exclusive.
They can increase prices and still make some sales. Audi not so much.


Our CEO must be tearing his hair out. Our supply chain in the Americas is split between Mexico and the US.

My plant is not affected so far. Though I spent some time last week with the guys from Ford, for a project that was projected to sell about half of production to the US. Nobody knows how that will go.

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump could probably have picked a trade fight with one medium-sized nation (Canada or Germany, etc) and gotten some good content to feed his base. But against literally the entire world simultaneously, plus some of the nonflying avians, eh, unless he does a marathon TV broadcast where he negotiates tariffs with 50 nations this week, the whole thing will very quickly cross the rubicon into supply shock which then has knock-on effects on inflation.

Just so.

If the real goal was to target the PRC, then the policy play would be to minimize trade tensions with everyone else, with the objective of isolating China and putting the pressure on.  This is basic diplomacy that kids playing Model UN understand.

The sanewashers and Trumpslainers were out in full force trying to pitch this as an anti-China security measure or as a tough negotiating stance to get "real" free trade. If the former putting tariffs on other nations makes no sense.  But it can't be the latter either because Trump doesn't want free trade, full stop. An America the controls the world reserve currency and sucks in investment will run trade deficits and Trump cannot accept this.  The fact that bilateral tariffs won't fix that doesn't matter. This isn't a negotiating strategy; it is WAD-SNAFU.

The truth is that the sanewashers know Trump shit the bed, and are desperately throwing off ramps in his direction hoping the market carnage will eventually scare him straight.

[Zanza]

Audi? Guess Porsche will follow?

Porsche has higher margins so they can eat a higher share of the import tax.

[viper37]

I think that Europe would love to buy all those Canadian resources. But there is a need for a lot of infrastructure for Canada to point towards Europe.

Yeah, the infrastructure has to be built. Lend-lease? Probably also have to bribe Quebec.

I really, really like how Canadian medias spread myths about Quebec.

The Quebec government had agreed in principle to let the pipeline pass, but made a whoopsie (not the only one who made a "whoopsie") in its environmental study: it forgot to study the impact of the new terminal on an important whale nesting area.  Thus, the opponents won their victory in court.

But where was the fiercest opposition coming in the country?  Where was it they said no f* way, thou shall not pass!!! ?  Thunder Bay, Ontario.

We could also talk about the NEB council members who met in secret, violating their oath to meet in public, which was ground for dismissal (they had to recuse themselves).  But Harper chose to renew their mandate.  All 19 of them.  Stephen Harper, that famous Quebec politician, remember of him?  Danielle Smith and many Albertans seems to have forgotten about him.  He could have dismissed them, let Trudeau reappoint new members for the sake of transparency. But he had to make sure these were the same people...

Also, lots of First Nations tribes along the way hadn't given their accord and had a right to veto the project, something even Suncor had agreed to.

[viper37]

The truth is that the sanewashers know Trump shit the bed, and are desperately throwing off ramps in his direction hoping the market carnage will eventually scare him straight.

Speaking of sanewashers.

NCLA sues President Trump over use of emergency power for tariffs.

NCLA is founded by Charles Koch...

[chipwich]

With Trump it is more difficult because he has a very high ceiling of very committed fans. The ultimate reason the Tory party have got rid of leaders over the years (Thatcher, Iain Duncan Smith, May, Johnson, Truss) is because they're performing badly and likely to lose the next election. Trump's support really doesn't seem to move.

They got rid of the actual persons of Johnson and truss but didn't implement public policy that actually protected their reputation, particularly on illegal immigration which should be easy for them, and they allowed Sunak to lead them to doom.

[mongers]

With Trump it is more difficult because he has a very high ceiling of very committed fans. The ultimate reason the Tory party have got rid of leaders over the years (Thatcher, Iain Duncan Smith, May, Johnson, Truss) is because they're performing badly and likely to lose the next election. Trump's support really doesn't seem to move.

They got rid of the actual persons of Johnson and truss but didn't implement public policy that actually protected their reputation, particularly on illegal immigration which should be easy for them, and they allowed Sunak to lead them to doom.

That was just rearranging the chairs on the deck, cool-dude Boris had already holed the tory party below the waterline.

[chipwich]

If there had been a general election after Truss of if Sunak had addressed immigration the Conservatives would probably have lost but they would not be at extinction level.

[mongers]

If there had been a general election after Truss of if Sunak had addressed immigration the Conservatives would probably have lost but they would not be at extinction level.

No one in the UK know what this would have been or is.

[HVC]

I think that Europe would love to buy all those Canadian resources. But there is a need for a lot of infrastructure for Canada to point towards Europe.

Yeah, the infrastructure has to be built. Lend-lease? Probably also have to bribe Quebec.

I really, really like how Canadian medias spread myths about Quebec.

The Quebec government had agreed in principle to let the pipeline pass, but made a whoopsie (not the only one who made a "whoopsie") in its environmental study: it forgot to study the impact of the new terminal on an important whale nesting area.  Thus, the opponents won their victory in court.

But where was the fiercest opposition coming in the country?  Where was it they said no f* way, thou shall not pass!!! ?  Thunder Bay, Ontario.

We could also talk about the NEB council members who met in secret, violating their oath to meet in public, which was ground for dismissal (they had to recuse themselves).  But Harper chose to renew their mandate.  All 19 of them.  Stephen Harper, that famous Quebec politician, remember of him?  Danielle Smith and many Albertans seems to have forgotten about him.  He could have dismissed them, let Trudeau reappoint new members for the sake of transparency. But he had to make sure these were the same people...

Also, lots of First Nations tribes along the way hadn't given their accord and had a right to veto the project, something even Suncor had agreed to.

Bribe ontarians, natives, and whoever else you need too. In the long run it's more reliable then relying on america going forward.

[Sheilbh]

They got rid of the actual persons of Johnson and truss but didn't implement public policy that actually protected their reputation, particularly on illegal immigration which should be easy for them, and they allowed Sunak to lead them to doom.

I think that's a bad misreading of how the Tories lost their biggest majority since 1987 in one parliamentary term.

But I think there is an interesting point there on public policy. The coalition Johnson built was of traditional small state, low tax, well-heeled Tories and working class, traditional Labour areas that broadly wanted higher spending and a bigger state (particularly on the public realm, NHS etc). Squaring that circle was always going to be a huge challenge - it was pointed out repeatedly on election night when Andrew Neil was interesting Tories. It'd take a politician with a lot of skills and real ability to deliver to even try and thread that needle - instead they had Boris Johnson, followed by Truss and Sunak who (in different ways - Truss with tax cuts, Sunak with moves to balance the budget) just gave up on one half of that coalition.

I mention that just because of the tensions between a no cuts to social security or Medicare, perhaps slightly more nationalist, rust belt constituency and, say, a bunch of quasi-Randian tech types. I think the skirmishes over H1B visas was an early sign of the fundamental incoherence of that coalition - but I think we'll continue to see that unfold. The only thing holding it together from what I can see is Trump's personal charisma and it'll be interesting to see how well that holds up.

No one in the UK know what this would have been or is.

Especially as in relation to immigration - it is at records levels because the system Johnson established after Brexit is working as designed. He massively liberalised - ironically by moving very strongly to a points based system which Brits have been saying they wanted (despite having already in one form or another) for years.