What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Valmy]

The tech bros are hit the hardest so far, arent they? Of the rich i mean. 401k holders are the real losers right now.

Sure. But they still have tons of money they can use to buy up assets when everything bottoms out. At least that is how it went in the 2008 crisis and Covid.

[HVC]

True enough. Rich always get richer after recessions. Although the non tech rich are probably going to do better (as a percentage, not a total)  .

[Josquius]

This rule is key to why we are in so deep of a pit right now.
Despite it being obvious what had to be done after 2008 we took another path instead.
The stock market has bloated enrichening those who were already rich without much actual new wealth being created to improve living standards.
This left a huge chunk of people willing to listen to a snake oil salesman.

[dist]

I like this less conspirationist perspective better:

At a basic level the entire MAGA movement, and Donald Trump from whom all of it stems, simply doesn't grasp the nature of American power or its limitations. In their view the United States is the natural and inherent dominating power in the world. We're the most powerful and the strongest. And starting from that view they look out onto the world and think if we are in charge why don't we act like we're in charge?

Instead of acting like we're in charge we do a lot of consulting and asking. That's weak and leads everyone to take advantage of us, protecting their industries while we keep our markets open, letting their defenses atrophy and relying on our protection, etc. It's lost on them that the US is not actually the inherently dominating power on the planet. US primacy is based yes on a vast military, access to the American domestic market, American wealth. But really it's based on America's role as the custodian of a global system that on balance works quite well, at least for the other advanced economies of the world. It provides a general peace, a system of more or less known rules enforced with some consistency, a US primacy that keeps the peace without dominating other middle powers, etc. The US global order is like a trampoline with a bowling ball in the middle, like a giant star the very fabric of the system is subtly angled in the US direction. But on balance it works. The US is the first among equals more than a dominating power.

In other words, precisely what MAGA views as examples of weakness are the bases of American power. Donald Trump wants to hold the rest of the world in subjection. But the US simply isn't powerful enough to do that. It may have been just after World War II for a while. But it certainly isn't now. That's also why the American primacy has so long outlasted the Soviet one, whose satellites tore away from it at the first opportunity, and even before any real opportunity: because the US primacy actually worked quite well for allies in Europe and East Asia. Donald Trump is only able to look at America's persistent trade deficits. The role of the dollar as the global reserve currency and the massive advantages it brings are lost on him and that's what makes the trade deficits in some ways inevitable and also sustainable. It also gives the US a whole series of other vast advantages, one of which is being able to borrow and borrow and have it mostly not matter.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/wtaf-is-going-on-in-search-of-the-plan-behind-trumps-global-economic-crisis

[Sheilbh]

Seeing some people say that Trump is tanking the economy so that he and his cronies can by cheap on the dip, redistributing power further upward to few individuals and entities.

Seeing other comments that this is part of tearing apart America to make room for Tech Oligarchs to run territories as CEOs.

We are reaching the point where even the people trying to make sense out of Trump's insanity start sounding insane.

I think it's really simple - Trump likes tariffs. That's all there is to it.

99% of Trump's politics are shifting, unmoored, unfixed and mainly drive by id, with a bit of mob boss mentality. But the one thing Trump has consistently banged on about for decades is that everyone's taking advantage of the US and the solution is tariffs. He really likes tariffs.

On that level there's nothing more complicated going on.

At another level I think there are people trying to shape Trump's agenda. In a normal administration you always have policy entrepreneurs basically pitching their solutions to the administration. In this case it's more difficult and trying to tailor their solutions to Trump's desires without appearing to be handling him or taking any credit from him (but willingness to take the blame). I think you can kind of tie this into a nationalist agenda as Stephen Miller is trying to do - but even then it's too much.

On the other hand you have the absurdity of Marco Rubio noting that "markets are crashing because markets are based on the stock value of companies who today are embedded in modes of production that are bad for the United States." (Although this whole autarky drive does weirdly feel like the US has somehow accidentally elected right-wing Tony Benn )

[HVC]

This rule is key to why we are in so deep of a pit right now.
Despite it being obvious what had to be done after 2008 we took another path instead.
The stock market has bloated enrichening those who were already rich without much actual new wealth being created to improve living standards.
This left a huge chunk of people willing to listen to a snake oil salesman.

The stock market makes little logical sense, especially when it moved from rich man's plaything to the plaything of the masses. That being said a lot of the bloat probably has to do with countries trying to use the market as an extension for pensions. I think anyway, what do I know

[Sheilbh]

Should say I get the complaint at sanewashing/Trumpsplaining a bit more now - I went for dinner with some old colleagues recently including some who work in the City.

Most of them did seem to think this was basically all a negotiating tactic that would involve various countries/markets doing deals with the US - that may be where it ends up if market pressure coerces Trump. They were kind of surprised by my take which was just that Trump really likes tariffs and thinks they're good

[The Minsky Moment]

I have to pay municipal taxes, which fund the city library and the local police.  Both are public goods.

I have to pay federal taxes, which funds the military.  That's a public good.

Yes, but the dollar's role as a reserve currency is a different kind of public good.

The world benefits in the sense that it is convenient to have a commonly accepted reserve currency that facilitates trade and investment flows.  But it is also a detriment in that it makes other countries vulnerable to US financial sanctions and because it reduces a degree of economic autonomy.

It's not hard to imagine a world with competing reserve currencies or currency blocs - it's what we had during the period before WWII and after sterling lost its dominance.  I don't think that would be unwelcome at all for many if not most other nations, and especially China, Russia, and the EU.  I don't think there will be many takers for the "deal" of paying the US for the dubious right to be subjected to the dollar's "exorbitant privilege"

The US provision of international security is a different kind of public good in that it was truly welcomed and valued by many of its intended recipients. That public good was not provided by the US out of a pure spirit of generosity, however. It was provided out of calculated self-interest and the US got value in return.

It is possible to argue that the US could fairly get more in return for its public security good provision, whether in the form of greater allied defense spending or other forms of "burden sharing."  However, it is Economics 101 that it is very hard to raise the price of a good if you simultaneously destroy its market value.  The problem for Trump is that in three months he has radically reduced the perceived value of American security provision, particularly to Canada and the EU.  Trash the value of your good --> watch as the price buyers are willing to pay declines.

[Sheilbh]

Yes, but the dollar's role as a reserve currency is a different kind of public good.

The world benefits in the sense that it is convenient to have a commonly accepted reserve currency that facilitates trade and investment flows.  But it is also a detriment in that it makes other countries vulnerable to US financial sanctions and because it reduces a degree of economic autonomy.

It's not hard to imagine a world with competing reserve currencies or currency blocs - it's what we had during the period before WWII and after sterling lost its dominance.  I don't think that would be unwelcome at all for many if not most other nations, and especially China, Russia, and the EU.  I don't think there will be many takers for the "deal" of paying the US for the dubious right to be subjected to the dollar's "exorbitant privilege"

Yes. This was the crucial lesson for the British state in Suez (the French took different lessons).

And there is something to the "exorbitant privilege" point - there is a huge benefit to the US from the position of the dollar. I'm very unsure how this interacts with debt/fiscal politics (my instinct: not well!).

[The Minsky Moment]

On the other hand you have the absurdity of Marco Rubio noting that "markets are crashing because markets are based on the stock value of companies who today are embedded in modes of production that are bad for the United States." (Although this whole autarky drive does weirdly feel like the US has somehow accidentally elected right-wing Tony Benn )

It is not accidental. An essential attribute of right populism in all of its manifestations (Putin, Orban, Erdogan, Trump 2.0) is the subordination of private enterprise to State. It is a philosophy closer in sentiment to the Great Leap Forward than to Mt. Pelerin and high Thatcherism-Reaganism.

Trump 2.0 is unravelling the constitutional order and supporting institutions to radically reorient policy through Executive fiat. He has demonstrated that the American system, previously notable for its apparent constraints on radical political action, can be turned in more extreme directions. And he has also done so in a way that forcefully asserts the primacy of the State and Executive dictat over private interest and civil society.  In so doing, he has unwittingly created a clear blueprint for a left populist equivalent to implement a fully socialist system in America should the political winds change.

[viper37]

China lashes out at JD Vance for calling Chinese people 'peasants' 

"What has the globalist economy gotten the United States of America? And the answer is, fundamentally, it's based on two principles – incurring a huge amount of debt to buy things that other countries make for us," Vance told news show "Fox & Friends."

"To make it a little more crystal clear, we borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture."

Asked about Vance's comments at a regular news briefing Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said: "It's both astonishing and lamentable to hear this vice president make such ignorant and disrespectful remarks."

CNN has reached out to Vance's office for comment.

Clips of Vance's interview made their way to the Chinese internet this week, drawing an intense backlash in a country where factory floors are lined with industrial robots, cities are embracing homegrown electric vehicles and remote counties are connected by a nationwide web of high-speed railways.

"This true 'peasant' who came out of rural America seems to have a lack of perspective," said Hu Xijin, the influential former editor-in-chief of state-run tabloid Global Times, in a post on microblogging site Weibo. "Many people are urging him to come and see China for himself."

A hashtag on Vance's remarks became the top trending topic on Weibo on Monday night. By Tuesday afternoon, it had racked up 140 million views.

"Look, this is their true face — arrogant and rude as always," said a comment with 2,900 likes.
"We may be peasants, but we have the world's best high-speed rail system, the most powerful logistics capabilities, and leading AI, autonomous driving, and drone technologies. Aren't such peasants quite impressive?" another said.

Others noted the irony of Vance's comments given his own working-class upbringing as depicted in his 2016 memoir "Hillbilly Elegy."

This is not going to end well.

[crazy canuck]

As an aside, JD Vance, and the rest of the Trump crew have done significant damage to the reputations of Ivy League universities.

[Sheilbh]

It is not accidental. An essential attribute of right populism in all of its manifestations (Putin, Orban, Erdogan, Trump 2.0) is the subordination of private enterprise to State. It is a philosophy closer in sentiment to the Great Leap Forward than to Mt. Pelerin and high Thatcherism-Reaganism.

Trump 2.0 is unravelling the constitutional order and supporting institutions to radically reorient policy through Executive fiat. He has demonstrated that the American system, previously notable for its apparent constraints on radical political action, can be turned in more extreme directions. And he has also done so in a way that forcefully asserts the primacy of the State and Executive dictat over private interest and civil society.  In so doing, he has unwittingly created a clear blueprint for a left populist equivalent to implement a fully socialist system in America should the political winds change.

Away from economic policy - and I think this is more specific to Trump and the US - I always think this about post-modernism and the right. It is striking that the party that previously railed against relativism and those critical theorist academics etc is now basically hyper-real.

If you wanted to teach Baudrillard - play a Trump rally. (Edit: Or, in fact, Fox News covering a Trump rally.)

[viper37]

As an aside, JD Vance, and the rest of the Trump crew have done significant damage to the reputations of Ivy League universities.

Even here, I've met some very dumb people with a Ph.D..  Less than those Ivy League universities where rich people can buy their diplomas though.

[HVC]

As an aside, JD Vance, and the rest of the Trump crew have done significant damage to the reputations of Ivy League universities.

Even here, I've met some very dumb people with a Ph.D..  Less than those Ivy League universities where rich people can buy their diplomas though.

The dumb kid that got by in the ivy leagues on connections and daddies money has been a trope for a very long time.