What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Legbiter]

And there is something to the "exorbitant privilege" point - there is a huge benefit to the US from the position of the dollar.

If the greenback is not the world reserve currency I doubt Americans will like the result very much. Also how low does the market have to go to force Admiral Yi and Minsky into the re-bar mill? 

[viper37]

The dumb kid that got by in the ivy leagues on connections and daddies money has been a trope for a very long time.

Does Trump Have a college Degree?
Donald John Trump does indeed have a college degree. He earned a bachelor's degree in economics from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. However, the university has not been very forthcoming about his time there.

Prior to attending the University of Pennsylvania, Trump spent two years at Fordham University, where his grades were described as "respectable."

[viper37]

And there is something to the "exorbitant privilege" point - there is a huge benefit to the US from the position of the dollar.

If the greenback is not the world reserve currency I doubt Americans will like the result very much. Also how low does the market have to go to force Admiral Yi and Minsky into the re-bar mill? 

Admiral Yi believes in democracy.  What we are seeing is the will of the people.  No matter how hard the recession, no matter how low the markets fall, it is the patriotic duty of all Americans to support their President because that is what democracy calls for.  Dissent is undemocratic. 

[HVC]

The dumb kid that got by in the ivy leagues on connections and daddies money has been a trope for a very long time.

Does Trump Have a college Degree?
Donald John Trump does indeed have a college degree. He earned a bachelor's degree in economics from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. However, the university has not been very forthcoming about his time there.

Prior to attending the University of Pennsylvania, Trump spent two years at Fordham University, where his grades were described as "respectable."

There's also a quote going around by his old professor calling him the dumbest person he ever met. Don't know the veracity of the quote though

[Richard Hakluyt]

He is very knowledgeable about groceries though. Many people, smart people, say he is the world's greatest expert on groceries. They say that a lot.

[Syt]

He is very knowledgeable about groceries though.

"It's an old word, you don't hear it very often."

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I like this less conspirationist perspective better:

At a basic level the entire MAGA movement, and Donald Trump from whom all of it stems, simply doesn't grasp the nature of American power or its limitations. In their view the United States is the natural and inherent dominating power in the world. We're the most powerful and the strongest. And starting from that view they look out onto the world and think if we are in charge why don't we act like we're in charge?

...

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/wtaf-is-going-on-in-search-of-the-plan-behind-trumps-global-economic-crisis

From what I have read of the more rational supporters of this foolishness, they don't believe this.  There is an isolationist streak running through them.  They acknowledge that America's soft power will diminish because of trade disruptions and distrust of the dollar as a reserve currency; some actually celebrate it.  They don't want the US throwing its weight around, bullying other countries, and managing an "empire".  They actually sound a lot like the anti-globalization left from 15 - 20 years ago.

[Legbiter]

He is very knowledgeable about groceries though. Many people, smart people, say he is the world's greatest expert on groceries. They say that a lot.

 

[Jacob]

From what I have read of the more rational supporters of this foolishness, they don't believe this.  There is an isolationist streak running through them.  They acknowledge that America's soft power will diminish because of trade disruptions and distrust of the dollar as a reserve currency; some actually celebrate it.  They don't want the US throwing its weight around, bullying other countries, and managing an "empire".  They actually sound a lot like the anti-globalization left from 15 - 20 years ago.

While that's their rhetoric, they seem to have spared little to no thought as to what will happen to the advantages they'll be giving up if they become isolationist. It seems there's a fair bit of magical thinking that if they give up their globalist position it'll fix all the problems they have at home (real and imagined); whereas it seems that in many cases those problems could get a lot worse.

[HVC]

Can one be both isolationist and expansionist?

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

While that's their rhetoric, they seem to have spared little to no thought as to what will happen to the advantages they'll be giving up if they become isolationist. It seems there's a fair bit of magical thinking that if they give up their globalist position it'll fix all the problems they have at home (real and imagined); whereas it seems that in many cases those problems could get a lot worse.

Yeah, it's part and parcel with the magical thinking around manufacturing jobs Joan mentioned yesterday.  They don't actually understand how the global system works, and how the US fits into it, but are convinced they do.  It's a national-level mass Dunning-Kruger (in the pop-psych misunderstood sense) moment.

[Sheilbh]

Can one be both isolationist and expansionist?

In the American context especially, it's imperialism - unbound by any international order (at least originating from the old world) but expansionist, spheres of influence, explicit extractive client relationships etc.

I would add the problem with this is that I'm not sure they're even good at this. From my understanding there's a strong independence movement in Greenland - a sophisticated American policy could probably actually play on that if they really wanted much more say there (a bit like how the US won Hawaii or Panama). But fair to say that's not the approach they've taken - plus the wild Canada stuff.

[Legbiter]

Can one be both isolationist and expansionist?

In the American context especially, it's imperialism - unbound by any international order (at least originating from the old world) but expansionist, spheres of influence, explicit extractive client relationships etc.

I would add the problem with this is that I'm not sure they're even good at this. From my understanding there's a strong independence movement in Greenland - a sophisticated American policy could probably actually play on that if they really wanted much more say there (a bit like how the US won Hawaii or Panama).

The US did this with Iceland in WW II. We wanted independence, the US wanted basing rights so President Roosevelt sent this guy over as the first US ambassador to Iceland.

Lincoln MacVeagh was born October 1, 1890, in Narragansett Pier, Rhode Island, the son of Charles MacVeagh and Fanny Davenport Rogers MacVeagh. MacVeagh graduated from Groton School in 1909 and Harvard magna cum laude in 1913. He studied languages at the Sorbonne in 1913–14. He was fluent in German, French, Spanish, Latin, and Classical Greek.

Icelanders loved him and he went on to have a great career as Roosevelt's firefighting ambassador during WW II. 

Trump's last ambassador to Iceland was some rich dermatologist who was widely disliked here. 

[viper37]

Can one be both isolationist and expansionist?

Sure. It was America in the 19th century and early 20th.

They expanded their borders through all of America, waged war with Mexico and Spain to capture new territories for their colonial empire.  They invaded Cuba and made it a de facto economic colony until Fidel Castro's rebellion.

But they didn't meddle in the affairs of European countries and they didn't want European countries in their backyard.

[Valmy]

So...we are raising the tariff on China to 104% today? Is that what we are doing?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-says-it-will-fight-to-the-end-after-trump-threatens-to-impose-still-more-tariffs/ar-AA1CurON

China says it will 'fight to the end' after Trump threatens to impose still more tariffs

BEIJING (AP) — China said Tuesday it would "fight to the end" and take countermeasures against the United States to safeguard its own interests after President Donald Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports.

The Commerce Ministry said the U.S.'s imposition of "so-called 'reciprocal tariffs'" on China is "completely groundless and is a typical unilateral bullying practice."

China, the world's second-largest economy, has announced retaliatory tariffs and the ministry hinted in its latest statement that more may be coming.

"The countermeasures China has taken are aimed at safeguarding its sovereignty, security and development interests, and maintaining the normal international trade order. They are completely legitimate," the ministry said.

"The U.S. threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake and once again exposes the blackmailing nature of the U.S. China will never accept this. If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end," it added.

Analysts and traders worry about a global trade war

Trump's threat Monday of additional tariffs on China raised fresh concerns that his drive to rebalance the global economy could intensify a financially destructive trade war. Stock markets from Tokyo to New York have become more unstable as the tariff war worsens.

Trump's threat came after China said it would retaliate against U.S. tariffs he announced last week.

"If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!"

If Trump implements his new tariffs on Chinese products, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would reach a combined 104%. The new taxes would be on top of the 20% tariffs announced as punishment for fentanyl trafficking and his separate 34% tariffs announced last week. Not only could that increase prices for American consumers, it could also give China an incentive to flood other countries with cheaper goods and seek deeper relationships with other trading partners, particularly the European Union.

Chinese people worry, but keep faith with their country

On the streets of Beijing, people said they found it hard to keep track of all the announcements, but expressed belief in their country's ability to weather the storm.

"Trump says one thing today and another tomorrow. Anyway, he just wants benefits, so he can say whatever he wants," said Wu Qi, 37, who works in construction.

Others were less sanguine. Paul Wang, 30, who sells stainless accessories, including necklaces, bracelets, and tongue studs to Europe, said the European market was now more important after the extra U.S. 50% tariffs and he would be watching to see which other firms in his field would be competing in that space.

Jessi Huang and Yang Aijia, whose companies import chemicals from the U.S., said the tariffs, including potential Chinese retribution, could force them to close up shop.

"It would be very hard and very likely to have a layoff, maybe even closing," Huang said, "I might not be able to find another job if I get laid off."

China isn't out of options to retaliate

hina still has a range of options to strike back at the Washington, experts said, including suspending cooperation on combating fentanyl, placing higher quotas on agricultural products and going after the U.S. trade in services in China such as finance and law firms.

U.S. total goods trade with China was an estimated $582 billion in 2024, making it the top trader in goods with the U.S. The 2024 deficit with China in goods and services trade was between $263 billion and $295 billion.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian appeared to give short shrift to talk of dialogue with the Trump administration.

"I don't think what the U.S. has done reflects a willingness for sincere dialogue. If the U.S. really wants to engage in dialogue, it should adopt an attitude of equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit," Lin said.

In Hong Kong, where stocks were slightly higher Tuesday, Chief Executive John Lee blasted the latest U.S. tariffs as "bullying," saying the "ruthless behavior" has damaged global and multilateral trade and brought great risks and uncertainties to the world.

Lee said the city would link its economy closer to China's development, sign more free trade agreements, attract more foreign companies and capital to Hong Kong, and support local enterprises in coping with the impact of the tariffs.