What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[viper37]

The five trillion investment he claims were obviously not into publicly traded companies.

They were announced before the tariffs and they're just for show.

With the tariff on GPU, the US just killed its AI business, they're not going to really invest any real money.

One example:
100 billion$ investment

The company has 30 billion on hand.  No one has any idea how they can raise the 70 billion$ missing.

And since AI is supposed to replace humans, I do wonder how is it they can created 100 000 jobs?  The last time, they did almost invest their 50 billion$, but the jobs never materialized and WeWork went almost bankrupt.

[viper37]

Big Tech bet on Trump. It's still waiting for the payoff.

Reminds me of the time the big industrial group of Germany all bet on Hitler, saying they could control him.
Didn't work all that well for most of them.

[HVC]

Trump and truss are not analogous. She lost the support of the people and her party quickly. Their only similarities are they're both stupid and don't know how the economy works (or how a lot of things work). The American system has procedures in place to curtail bad actors. You can impeach an incompetent president, the judiciary is supposed to stop bad laws and actions, and closer to the matter of the day congress is supposed to control trade. There are other "checks and balances" in place, but those rely on both parties acting in good faith and the people demanding action. But now you have a rotten and thoroughly corrupt GOP at the helm. They're in turn simpering to or colluding with trump. And worse they have the popular support to prop them up. The American system isn't broken, it's the American people.

In a scenario where a British trump ( Sir Bartholomew Ignasius Trump?) held power over a similarly corrupt and colluding Tory party whose support amongst the populace matched real world trump would a parliamentary system have the means of stopping Sir Trump? I ask because I don't know. Maybe there is, in which case good for parliamentary systems.

It's not comparable because Brits are much less partisan than Americans and we have a multi-party system. No British PM has had a 40% base they can rely on. 20% at best

Fair enough, I didn't take that into account. Do party's get support into that higher range though? I understand parties aren't candidates, just more so for my education.

[crazy canuck]

The benefits of a Parliamentary system are many. Some of you have missed the point about the UK PM being replaced before the lettuce spoiled.  There are no four year terms for a leader of a party.  The can be replaced at anytime within a governments mandate, have a new leader appointed, and remain in power until the next election.

That encourages ambitious people who see a weak leader to go for the brass ring.


The dynamics are very different from the American system.

[crazy canuck]

One Bright Spot in the United States, protest are starting to break out.

[Jacob]

Yeah, those protests are nice to see. Hopefully they start building some sustainable momentum.

[Zoupa]

Wake me up when they actually do anything. Protesting on a Saturday 

[The Minsky Moment]

I realize it is pointless talking about real economics re Trump.
But.
If foreigners really did pour massive investment in the US, then that would cause the merchandise trade deficit to rise even higher, prompting more tariffs, prompting more imaginary investment and so forth in a mutually reinforcing cycle.

Of course this won't happen.

If you really, really want to "balance" the merchandise trade account, the main levers are:
1) somehow get China to completely rebalance their economy from overinvestment to consumption
2) End the dominant role of the dollar
3) Engineer a collapse of investment into the US
4) Engineer a collapse of incomes in the US

Pressuring China to make progress on 1 would require coordinated international pressure, which has been rendered an impossibility by Trump's policy.

Options 2 through 4 are potentially in play, however, so Trump might get his way after all.

[The Minsky Moment]

The hell that it must be for lawyers trying to defend Trump's actions.

Trump's people have been steadily weeding out any AUSAs with ethics and integrity. No one has been more aggressive in this regard than Ed Martin in the District of DC, and Emil Bove at Justice.   So if it is hell, it is one of their own making.

I'm reminded how before 2016, rental buildings and Condos with the Trump name used to command a price premium; now the effect is negative.  Similarly, before 2025, the appearance of an AUSA or Justice Dept official in federal court brought with it a basic presumption of credibility.  It now carries the opposite. It's an extraordinary turnaround.

I'm still not hearing the Democratic leadership trumpeting the injustice involved here.  Schiff, yes.  Schumer and Hawkins, no.

Lack of moral courage.  The pressure will have to come from the ground up.

[Admiral Yi]

Trump is a Peronist.  The next step is falsifying economic data.

[Josquius]

One thing that gets me on this nuttiness is it's another example of the far right getting a lot right, correctly identifying the correct problem left behind communities, inequality, over reliance on cheap chinese imports, etc.... Then jumping to solutions that are completely back to front and will only fuck things up more.
Taking a hard line on China I could get on board with- friend snoring is very much the right idea. But simplisticly lashing out at the whole world even democratic allies is just beyond dumb.

One Bright Spot in the United States, protest are starting to break out.

I've been wondering with them though - to what end?

Not to say they're not worthwhile, as even just making a show of opposition is worthy, but best case what outcome are the protestors looking for here?
It's not like in more democratic countries where parliament can just remove the dear leader.

[Maladict]

One Bright Spot in the United States, protest are starting to break out.

Finally. The hard part will be to keep doing it.

[Admiral Yi]

The US parliament can just remove the dear leader.

[Legbiter]

Trump is a Peronist.  The next step is falsifying economic data.

Yeah.



Resentful third-worldism with American characteristics.

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump is a Peronist.  The next step is falsifying economic data.

That's already happening - personnel cut from statistical agencies.