Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Razgovory]

This one is from 2007.

So some times, they really don't like us.

This is your binary thinking at work again.
There's a league of difference between "The US really should be doing better than they are. Their approach to health care is simply barbaric. So yeah, I have an unfavourable view" and "The US is the Great Satan. It needs to be wiped off the face of the earth"

What the fuck are you on about?

[Jacob]

I've never really understood how Europe's self-perception as a "peace continent" since the Cold War has been sustained given the Yugoslav wars, two genocides as well as Russia's invasions. I suspect in part maybe by mentally carving out the "Balkans" and Eastern Europe from the mental map of "Europe" - Europe is a peace continent therefore if there is not peace it is not Europe?

I think the mental map was Western Europe and/ or the EU, yes. Is that new or surprising to you? Because that's certainly how I understood it.

After the fall of the Soviet Union the project to bring Eastern European the countries inside the borders of the mental map.

[HVC]

Hasn't that always been the way? Europe has always been seen as Western Europe by them. Central Europe gets a bit of a pass by proximity, and Eastern Europe gets that name due to a quirk of geography, but they're not "really" Europe, just some Slavs. If you ask most people to name European countries, even here, most if not all will name Western European countries.


*and maybe Poland because we have a lot of people of polish descent in my area.

[Iormlund]

How much did it cost the US to back Euro defense?

I'd be surprised if it was significant, considering that in return they got to keep the NPT going.

Finland, the Baltics, Ukraine; Japan, SK and Taiwan are all going to need their own nukes and delivery systems ASAP.

[Sheilbh]

I think the mental map was Western Europe and/ or the EU, yes. Is that new or surprising to you? Because that's certainly how I understood it.

After the fall of the Soviet Union the project to bring Eastern European the countries inside the borders of the mental map.

Maybe. I'm not sure I agree.

It varies over time and I think the Balkans and Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, the Baltics) were always seen as perhaps borderlands for Europe. But I think many twentieth century leaders (who were born before the Iron Curtain) would not have understood that division of Europe - Germany was synecdoche not an exception. Whether that's de Gaulle's Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals or Thatcher's call to "never forget that east of the Iron Curtain, people who have once enjoyed a full share of European culture, freedom and identity have been cut off from their roots. We shall always look on Warsaw, Prague and Budapest as great European cities." I think both would have seen their different styles (one more aimed at detente, one more confrontational) as fundamentally attempting to deal with the artificial division of Europe.

As I say I think there was a difference over the Balkans and places invaded by Russia (the whole concept of "post-Soviet states" - useful and limiting), but I also think there was an othering of them going on. I feel like you even got some of the tropes like "ancient hatreds" etc in there.

In part, perhaps because it played into the dominant politics of that time in the 90s and 00s. Europe is a peace continent therefore if there is not peace it is not Europe and they simply need to become "European", rather than Europe is not a peaceful continent therefore Europe needs to understand how to build security and peace here.

[The Minsky Moment]

I saw a report on a study/ proposal that claimed that - barring nuclear weapons - an alliance of the Nordics + Baltics + Poland would have enough money (having an economy x1.4 that of Russia) and manpower to hold back Russia on defence and even drive them to a "Reagan-like" breaking point in an arms-race.

You just brought a thrill to every Great Northern War history nerd out there. 

[grumbler]

I've heard this same story about the helicopters of the Afghan army. They need software updates after every mission, which meant when the Americans pulled out they were useless to the government.
Googling I can't find anything quite that harsh about every mission needing a key, but it's certainly a story out there if anyone knows better and wants to search. Closest i found which falls some way short.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/without-u-s-contractors-afghan-military-will-lose-its-main-n1269686

That story is talking about aircraft and equipment maintenance. Every flight hour requires multiple man-hours of maintenance by skilled professionals, which the Afghan Army did not have.

[Jacob]

Maybe. I'm not sure I agree.

It varies over time and I think the Balkans and Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, the Baltics) were always seen as perhaps borderlands for Europe. But I think many twentieth century leaders (who were born before the Iron Curtain) would not have understood that division of Europe - Germany was synecdoche not an exception. Whether that's de Gaulle's Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals or Thatcher's call to "never forget that east of the Iron Curtain, people who have once enjoyed a full share of European culture, freedom and identity have been cut off from their roots. We shall always look on Warsaw, Prague and Budapest as great European cities." I think both would have seen their different styles (one more aimed at detente, one more confrontational) as fundamentally attempting to deal with the artificial division of Europe.

As I say I think there was a difference over the Balkans and places invaded by Russia (the whole concept of "post-Soviet states" - useful and limiting), but I also think there was an othering of them going on. I feel like you even got some of the tropes like "ancient hatreds" etc in there.

In part, perhaps because it played into the dominant politics of that time in the 90s and 00s. Europe is a peace continent therefore if there is not peace it is not Europe and they simply need to become "European", rather than Europe is not a peaceful continent therefore Europe needs to understand how to build security and peace here.

Seems to me that you're putting way too much semantic load on "Europe". IMO there were differences between the different parts of Europe. Some of those differences have changed, and some countries have drifted in different directions - joined different mental maps if you will - but there were always different categories inside the European continent.

Sure, some folks may have used the term "Europe" aspirationally or arrogantly or excluding "the borderlands" at various times, but I don't think that points to some sort of massive self-deception or true Scotsman fallacy. The various in- and out-groups were always fairly well understood IMO.

[jimmy olsen]

20,000 isn't enough to dissuade a Russian horde.

20,000 decently armed and competent Western troops could badly wreck a much larger Russian force.

The Russians don't have hordes anyways.  They have convicts backed by confused North Korean backed by conscripts.

Agreed. Which is why the Russians will never accept it.

[Sheilbh]

Seems to me that you're putting way too much semantic load on "Europe". IMO there were differences between the different parts of Europe. Some of those differences have changed, and some countries have drifted in different directions - joined different mental maps if you will - but there were always different categories inside the European continent.

Sure, some folks may have used the term "Europe" aspirationally or arrogantly or excluding "the borderlands" at various times, but I don't think that points to some sort of massive self-deception or true Scotsman fallacy. The various in- and out-groups were always fairly well understood IMO.

I think that's probably fair And a lot of the discourse was not just post-Cold War or an explanation of it. You think of the discourse about Russia over the years as a great example of how "Europe" has shifting meanings that can be used in multiple ways including by Russians. I think there are similar discourses in the former Yugoslavia.

But I do still think there is a bit of self-deception at least, conscious or otherwise. After all, the reason the Yugoslav wars and Bosnian genocide was "Europe's moment" (and Rwanda wasn't) is because it was in Europe.

As has turned out the mental map Europe - a peace continent, safely taking the peace dividend and demobilising - was in actual map Europe living next to conflict it couldn't stop and peace it couldn't enforce. I think if it happens once you can excuse it. But in the last 35 years we've had the Yugoslav wars, Kosovo, 2014 and 2022 - more if you include the Caucasus or split up the Yugoslav wars by phase. So it does feel like, if not self-deception, then a weird gap in vision - it's like being dressed up to go to dinner and a show and thinking that's normal life in your city, having stepped over multiple beggars on the way.

And in part it may just be that the first thing I really remember being political about is Kosovo because, as a kid, I went to a community meeting about converting an old military base into a reception centre for refugees (it wasn't needed in the end) - so I feel like I've heard a version of either "this is Europe's moment" or "how can this be happening in Europe" too many times.

[Threviel]

If I understand F-35 properly every use of it requires sending the flight plan to the US and receiving a flight key which without the plane cannot operate. Israel can di this itself, but it's apparently how all other users operate.

That's a pretty extraordinary claim, and would require extraordinary evidence for me to believe it.

When I had written it down I thought about it and it sounded so dumb. So I tried to find a proper source and it's apparently entirely fabulated. I was fooled by a very credible sounding Reddit post. It's a misunderstanding with regards to who has access to the source code.

I edited my post to reflect this, I should have perhaps removed it entirely. Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

They might further block SAAB Gripen due to it using lots of US components.

The Gripen uses no US components bar the license-built General Electric F404. Even those are slated to be replaced by a more advanced engine, either a GD one or a new Volvo Aero one.

Volvo Aero was bought by GE in 2012. There is no on-going development of a Swedish jet engine. There were, IIRC, discussions about switching to a European engine for Gripen E, but nothing came out of it.

[Jacob]

If an agreement were made to NOT have European peacekeepers, but then 20,000 "little green Euro-men" showed up in Ukraine...what would Putin do about it?

I expect he'd try to kill them, hoping that the casualty rate would be too high for the European publics.

[Tonitrus]

Sometimes I post before thinking, and thought my own comment a bit flippant and unneccesary, but since you caught me, I shall try to restore some dignity and repost it for posterity. 

"If an agreement were made to NOT have European peacekeepers, but then 20,000 "little green Euro-men" showed up in Ukraine...what would Putin do about it? "

[mongers]

I'm willing to bet in 10 months time I'll have to retitle the thread again, this time replacing the 5 with a 6.

[mongers]

Sometimes I post before thinking, and thought my own comment a bit flippant and unneccesary, but since you caught me, I shall try to restore some dignity and repost it for posterity. 

"If an agreement were made to NOT have European peacekeepers, but then 20,000 "little green Euro-men" showed up in Ukraine...what would Putin do about it? "

Whatever the effectiveness of that specific idea, I think you're on the right track, that Europe needs to start surprising Putin henceforth, rather than just reacting to Putin's moves.

Have a strategy to destabilise Trans-deneister, returning it to Moldova, maybe then get them to join NATO.

Or perhaps start accidentally damaging Russian infrastructure in and around Kalingrad restrict land access like the Israelis do with Gaza aid?

Maybe attempt to pull* some of the 'Stan' dictators away from his orbit.

*bribe them.