Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

Most lenient explanation I have heard is that he wants peace ASAP (maybe gunning for a Nobel, IDK) without caring too much about its shape. He and his people have figured they can't really bully Russia into it, not quickly enough anyways, so they'll just coerce the weaker party.

I've heard the stuff about a Nobel Prize has become a genuine thing he wants now.

But I think a lot of that is right. He wants it ended and he interprets America's power - ironically - in exactly the same way Russia (and before it the Soviet Union - and lots of the Western hard-left) interprets it. NATO is a Warsaw Pact where America gives instructions, the purpose of American power extraction of wealth, the Europeans and the Ukrainians don't have agency. Basically not a million miles from the way Russia (and the USSR) behaves.

I still think we don't what Russia would be willing to accept. They keep saying no to any European presence in Ukraine and I increasingly think they mean that, it's not just a negotiating posture. That is exactly what the Europeans (France and Britain working with Ukraine, helpfully Turkey also willing to support) are trying to pitch to Trump.

Also this whole minerals deal, I find it sickening that everyone just accepted it as a normal thing for it to be a VERY IMPORTANT THING, when it is obvious to everyone I am sure, that it's just a Trump pet peeve

I agree - but also I wonder if this was something well-intentioned gone horribly awry. My understanding of the minerals in Ukraine is that it's not really there. It's not rare earths - there aren't any. The numbers that are cited are based on very ambitious Soviet era surveys and it would be hugely expensive to extract - the sort of thing that's probably only do-able by a Soviet style state. So it's demanding a vast extractive interest in things that are not really economically viable.

I wonder if that was pitched to Trump by American (and possibly foreign) supporters of Ukraine in a way to make him care because there's a real estate rationale and it'd pay off American support.

Another curious fact - in a key oval office meeting with a foreign leader (Zelensky), the Secretary of State was sinking silently in his chair, NSA is nowhere to be seen or heard. Instead, the Vice President of all people is taking the lead.  It is as yet unclear exactly what role Vance is playing and is going to play in this administration nominally headed by an absentee elderly golfer. What is clear is that Vance was Don Junior's choice and conducts himself in every way as a Trump family surrogate.

Yeah I'm very struck by Vance's presence - even aside from his role in the Oval Office he seems more present than any VP I can remember. Almost like a French Prime Minister - but even there meddling too much in foreign policy.

On the family side I've read that Vance has very strong ties with the family - which matter in Trump's world - and that he is particularly friendly with Trump Jr. It's also why I think it's worth understanding some of the ideas and ideology of people around Trump because I think Vance is clearly positioned for what comes next. In my view Trump is fundamentally a mob boss with no fixed views beyond protection rackets and extraction with lots of people around him trying o leverage that power to deliver their projects. I don't think that applies to Vance who I think absolutely has his own views and and ideology and a plan - which I think are alarming and radical and he's young and energetic.

[Threviel]

The historical parallel i'm thinking of is the Byzantines post Manzikert.

A leader gets delegitimised and total systemic collapse follows where the enemies move in unmolested and makes huge gains. Corruption is rampant and all focus is on internal issues while the world is burning.

Whoever that has to cleanup or continue after Trump isn't going to have an easy time.

[DGuller]

What Russia has on Trump is what Russia originally had on Trump, plus all the things he did for them after they made us of what they had on him originally.  Maybe pee-pee tape on its own will do nothing to Trump these days, but pee-pee tape and record of his private conspiracy with Putin will still do quite a bit to him.

[Threviel]

It'll do absolutely nothing. Trumpists will paint it as fake news and AI-made and his cohorts will swallow that wholesale.

If they haven't abandoned him yet there is absolutely nothing that will make them abandon him.

[Grey Fox]

The only way Trump is stopped is that he pushed the military in a direction they really really don't want to go.

I do not know what that would be.

[Jacob]

I subscribe to the theory Minsky put forward.

There may be some dirt somewhere (maybe, probably), but the main motivation is corruption and greed, pure and simple.

[frunk]

It also explains why Trump just had to impose tariffs.  There wasn't enough market manipulation opportunities from just the threat.

[Josquius]

I subscribe to the theory Minsky put forward.

There may be some dirt somewhere (maybe, probably), but the main motivation is corruption and greed, pure and simple.

Yes. The recent stuff about trump as a fully signed up asset seems to be going a bit too far. Perhaps even a Russian op in itself to discredit those talking about the links.
But they almost certainly have dirt on him. And the evidence is there he does genuinely look up to putin.

Vance on the other hand.... I'm far more willing to believe he is a fully signed up FSB member

[Sheilbh]

Agree - also I think if the Russians were running an asset in the American government they'd ask him to maybe tone down the outrageously pro-Russian comments.

Plus Trump's first term wasn't great for Russia - the US started sending lethal aid to Ukraine (under Obama it had been only non-lethal), there were significant increases in European defence spending (not enough) and (as we're seeing again) Trump hates high oil and gas prices.

I feel like it'd be a mixed report card in the Lubyanka and they would have preferred someone who didn't talk tough, but also didn't arm Ukraine or scare the Europeans.

In a way it feels like the reverse of Russian views - everything is actually not the fault of Russian or American society, but the machinations of sophisticated, subtle enemies overseas.

[crazy canuck]

It also explains why Trump just had to impose tariffs.  There wasn't enough market manipulation opportunities from just the threat.

I was wondering how many insiders profited by knowing the timing of the announcement that the US was considering changing course on tariffs today.

[Valmy]

It also explains why Trump just had to impose tariffs.  There wasn't enough market manipulation opportunities from just the threat.

I was wondering how many insiders profited by knowing the timing of the announcement that the US was considering changing course on tariffs today.

Based on what we heard last night, I am very skeptical there is going to be consideration of changing course on the tariffs.

[Barrister]

It also explains why Trump just had to impose tariffs.  There wasn't enough market manipulation opportunities from just the threat.

I was wondering how many insiders profited by knowing the timing of the announcement that the US was considering changing course on tariffs today.

Based on what we heard last night, I am very skeptical there is going to be consideration of changing course on the tariffs.

Secretary Lutnick was talking about the possibility of them being lifted shortly.

Problem of course is Lutnick - and the rest of the cabinet - don't decide these things.  Only Trump does.

[Valmy]

Secretary Lutnick was talking about the possibility of them being lifted shortly.

Problem of course is Lutnick - and the rest of the cabinet - don't decide these things.  Only Trump does.

I am aware Lutnick said that. But I think he was only trying to calm the market. But if the plan was to work out a deal with Canada and Mexico to reverse these tariffs, it would have been Trump who would announce it and not Lutnick. And he certainly wouldn't have announced his intention of implementing more tariffs are basically every major trading partner we have. And then the Republicans applauded.

If there is going to be a reversal of course, it will be Trump who will announce it. The fact he made such a big deal about them in his speech says to me we are going down this path, for the time being anyway. If Trump intended to reverse course he would have announced Canada and Mexico had agreed to his demands and victory had been won or something.

[crazy canuck]

Secretary Lutnick was talking about the possibility of them being lifted shortly.

Problem of course is Lutnick - and the rest of the cabinet - don't decide these things.  Only Trump does.

I am aware Lutnick said that. But I think he was only trying to calm the market. But if the plan was to work out a deal with Canada and Mexico to reverse these tariffs, it would have been Trump who would announce it and not Lutnick. And he certainly wouldn't have announced his intention of implementing more tariffs are basically every major trading partner we have. And then the Republicans applauded.

If there is going to be a reversal of course, it will be Trump who will announce it. The fact he made such a big deal about them in his speech says to me we are going down this path, for the time being anyway. If Trump intended to reverse course he would have announced Canada and Mexico had agreed to his demands and victory had been won or something.

I disagree, it has been Trump's MO to increase what he perceives as pressure before he makes a "deal".  For example, just before he backed away from implementing the tariffs the first time, just a few hours before making that announcement, he mused that the tariffs should be higher than 25%.

He lives in a world where making threats is part of the art of the deal.

[crazy canuck]

edit: and sure enough, exemptions are now being announced, with more to follow.  I predict that in a few hours, or days, Trump will claim he extracted huge concessions, and things will generally return to normal.