Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Minsky Moment]

20,000 isn't enough to dissuade a Russian horde.

20,000 decently armed and competent Western troops could badly wreck a much larger Russian force.

The Russians don't have hordes anyways.  They have convicts backed by confused North Korean backed by conscripts.

[The Brain]

Europe can defend against Russia if it chooses to. The worry is that US forces won't be passive but will join the fight.

[Valmy]

Having a permanent force in Ukraine would commit Europe to fight if Russia invades again.

And the idea that Russia is this mighty military force that can just roll over people is a joke at this point. People were telling me on this board about how they were going to crush Ukraine in a couple days. I was skeptical based on their recent military failures.

Ukraine just proves this. They cannot even defeat a country much smaller and in even worse shape than themselves.

Tens of thousands of European soldiers stationed there will be an effective deterrent. Especially if they are backed by nukes.

[Josquius]

It's funny. I remember back in 2016 and the brekshit ref one particularly common bit of boomer nonsense was screaming about the coming EU army and how it would conscript young people to go in trenches on the eastern front.
Seemed complete and utter nonsense at the time.
Turns out they were actually kind of right.

As to European troops disuading Russia....
It's a trip wire force. It's not meant to be a few thousand guys holding back and attack.
It's telling Russia attack here then you have to  troops from a bunch of nato members which means war.
Would work better with a few Americans involved of course but still, Europe can handle russia and Russia knows it. It's why they are so keen to divide us.

[Zoupa]

New french poll out today, translated to the best of my ability:

For 3 out of 4 French people, the USA is no longer an ally of France. 73% of French people today do not consider the USA to be an ally of France, including 56% not really and 17% not at all. Conversely, 26% still consider the United States to be an ally, of whom 21% rather and 5% quite.

The desire to continue military aid to Ukraine is in the majority and has risen sharply since June 2024. 20% (+4 points since June 12, 2024) of French people consider that France should increase its military support to Ukraine, 44% (+5) that it should continue to support it as at present. Conversely, 18% (-5) think it should reduce this support and 17% (-4) stop it.

On Friday, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky met at the White House. During this exchange, an altercation broke out between the two heads of state in front of the press. 73% of French people were shocked by this sequence, including 39% very shocked and 34% rather shocked. Conversely, 26% were not shocked, including 18% not really shocked and 8% not at all shocked.

The opinion is that Donald Trump is responsible for this altercation: 59% hold this view, compared with only 8% for Volodymyr Zelensky, 19% for both and 14% who don't know.

Link in french: https://elabe.fr/guerre-en-ukraine-2025/

[Josquius]

Impacting on support for the French fascists I hope?

[Jacob]

I saw a report on a study/ proposal that claimed that - barring nuclear weapons - an alliance of the Nordics + Baltics + Poland would have enough money (having an economy x1.4 that of Russia) and manpower to hold back Russia on defence and even drive them to a "Reagan-like" breaking point in an arms-race.

Part of the premise is the creation of a common defense investment bank that would allow Poland and the Baltics to borrow money for defense spending at Scandinavian interest rates.

I don't know how realistic it is, but I like the sound of it and think it's worth exploring further.

[mongers]

Time to pick up Riefenstahl instead.

 

[mongers]

20,000 isn't enough to dissuade a Russian horde.

True, nothing would dissuade the GOP from wrecking America.

 

Never a truer word said in jest.

[mongers]

I saw a report on a study/ proposal that claimed that - barring nuclear weapons - an alliance of the Nordics + Baltics + Poland would have enough money (having an economy x1.4 that of Russia) and manpower to hold back Russia on defence and even drive them to a "Reagan-like" breaking point in an arms-race.

Part of the premise is the creation of a common defense investment bank that would allow Poland and the Baltics to borrow money for defense spending at Scandinavian interest rates.

I don't know how realistic it is, but I like the sound of it and think it's worth exploring further.

It's a powerful grouping especially if Sweden is serious about rearming and has a wider 'draft' for soldiers.

As things stand they could dominate the Baltic sea and the Norwegians along with other nato special forces could cause significant damage to the Russia Northern fleet and it's vulnerable bases.

[crazy canuck]

I saw a report on a study/ proposal that claimed that - barring nuclear weapons - an alliance of the Nordics + Baltics + Poland would have enough money (having an economy x1.4 that of Russia) and manpower to hold back Russia on defence and even drive them to a "Reagan-like" breaking point in an arms-race.

Part of the premise is the creation of a common defense investment bank that would allow Poland and the Baltics to borrow money for defense spending at Scandinavian interest rates.

I don't know how realistic it is, but I like the sound of it and think it's worth exploring further.

One thing the Russians probably know is never pick a fight with the Finns

[chipwich]

20,000 isn't enough to dissuade a Russian horde.

20,000 decently armed and competent Western troops could badly wreck a much larger Russian force.

The Russians don't have hordes anyways.  They have convicts backed by confused North Korean backed by conscripts.

If that's a total, with support included and no reserves I can't imagine them being that impactful on a war of this scale. NATO doctrine is probably not to deliberately send a small army into a desperate siege.

[grumbler]

If I understand F-35 properly every use of it requires sending the flight plan to the US and receiving a flight key which without the plane cannot operate. Israel can di this itself, but it's apparently how all other users operate.

That's a pretty extraordinary claim, and would require extraordinary evidence for me to believe it.

I think not one single F-35 not already contracted will be sold outside the US.

I think that LM might have something to say about that.

They might further block SAAB Gripen due to it using lots of US components.

The Gripen uses no US components bar the license-built General Electric F404. Even those are slated to be replaced by a more advanced engine, either a GD one or a new Volvo Aero one.

I don't know the status of the Eurofighter, but I guess that it and Rafale is what everyone will buy from now on until new 6th gens come online.

Eurofighter/Typhoon is still in production in small numbers, while a substantial number of delivered aircraft are being modernized and equipped for air-to-ground operations. It's not clear whether production could be ramped up to compensate for lost opportunities to buy the F-35. Rafale is a pretty dated design, so certainly a sub-optimal choice to replace lost F-35 procurement.

[Josquius]

If I understand F-35 properly every use of it requires sending the flight plan to the US and receiving a flight key which without the plane cannot operate. Israel can di this itself, but it's apparently how all other users operate.

That's a pretty extraordinary claim, and would require extraordinary evidence for me to believe it.

I've heard this same story about the helicopters of the Afghan army. They need software updates after every mission, which meant when the Americans pulled out they were useless to the government.
Googling I can't find anything quite that harsh about every mission needing a key, but it's certainly a story out there if anyone knows better and wants to search. Closest i found which falls some way short.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/without-u-s-contractors-afghan-military-will-lose-its-main-n1269686

[Sheilbh]

Oh, Europe has been complacent; reliance on US as "world police" played a role, but also a naive, "Europe is peaceful now, we're all friends - why do we need big militaries, anyways?" When other countries worried about a re-unified Germany's strength, Germany was happy to downsize its military after reunification and rely on "soft" power - a mindset that was difficult to break out from again.

Yeah. Especially when you remember, I can't remember who but a senior European politician, declaring that the Yugoslav wars were "Europe's moment" - it was the point when Europe would step forward to resolve  a conflict (and a genocide) on its own continent.

In the end it required the Americans' force and persuasion to force a negotiate settlement in Dayton, Ohio. I think Blair had less hope of Kosovo being "Europe's moment" and was always focused on getting the Americans to intervene with Europe.

I've never really understood how Europe's self-perception as a "peace continent" since the Cold War has been sustained given the Yugoslav wars, two genocides as well as Russia's invasions. I suspect in part maybe by mentally carving out the "Balkans" and Eastern Europe from the mental map of "Europe" - Europe is a peace continent therefore if there is not peace it is not Europe?

So yeah, it's a bit brutal, but on the military side and on Ukraine I actually have a bit of understanding of the American point of view.

I agree, bluntly there have been decades of free-loading from Europe and even in Yugoslavia an expectation that the Americans will eventually solve our problems.

As you say we've had wars in Europe, we've had Atlanticist American Presidents and Secretaries of Defense like Obama and Gates tell us to get our house in order (and secure it), we've had multiple Russian invasions of other countries - it may be that actually only a shock this big would get action. I really thought 2022 would be a turning point and it wasn't. I thought it was just European processes and states moving slowly as sometimes happens but there would be a significant shift.