Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Jacob]

It is definitely worth it to step up some hybrid warfare actions against Russia, IMO.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

20,000 isn't enough to dissuade a Russian horde.

20,000 decently armed and competent Western troops could badly wreck a much larger Russian force.

The Russians don't have hordes anyways.  They have convicts backed by confused North Korean backed by conscripts.

Agreed. Which is why the Russians will never accept it.

they don't need to get a say though...

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I'm willing to bet in 10 months time I'll have to retitle the thread again, this time replacing the 5 with a 6.

obviously. After all: get the Korean war to a ceasefire took years, same for Vietnam.
Trump is only negotiating his surrender, still thinking it'll be conditional rather than unconditional. But that does't involve the actual war

[Syt]

Daily Wail and all but:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14461597/Washington-BANS-Britain-sharing-US-military-intelligence-Ukraine.html

EXCLUSIVE: Washington BANS Britain from sharing any US military intelligence with Ukraine

The United States has banned Britain from sharing intelligence from Washington with Ukraine as part of its withdrawal of support for Volodymyr Zelensky.

Donald Trump's decision to freeze American military aid to Kyiv yesterday brought warnings that Ukraine could run out of weapons in as little as two to three months' time.

But on top of missiles and ammunition, all UK intelligence agencies and military outlets also received an order expressly forbidding the sharing of US-generated intelligence, previously known as 'Rel UKR' - short for Releasable to Ukraine'.

Since the conflict began three years ago, the UK and other Western security partners such as Australia and New Zealand have shared such knowledge with Ukraine.

But the Mail has learnt the top-level security classification has now been removed by the United States pending further notification and is likely to impact upon Kyiv's ability to defend itself against Russia's continuing onslaught.

The ban affects the likes of the UK's GCHQ, the spy agencies and intelligence branches of the Ministry of Defence.

Last night, UK military intelligence expert Phil Ingram told the Mail: 'The United States's instruction to stop allies sharing US-derived intelligence with Ukraine is what I would expect.

'The US's intelligence partners, including Britain, have had their authority to pass on intelligence revoked.

'The US will tightly control distribution of its intelligence to Ukraine through agencies based in Kyiv.'

The move coincided with the US confirming it was pausing military aid to Kyiv as the rift between the two supposed allies deepened before Ukraine's president Volodmyr Zelensky offered US counterpart Donald Trump an olive branch yesterday.

Last night, a senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times: 'We have two to three months. After that, the position will be very difficult for us.

'It will not be a total collapse, but we will be forced to withdraw from some areas more quickly'.

Critics suggested any long-term freeze would lengthen rather than shorten the war.

That is because it is expected to encourage the Kremlin to exploit Kyiv's dwindling weapons and ammunition stocks and launch a fresh bid for more territory.

Russia currently occupies around one fifth of Ukraine, including eastern provinces and the Crimean peninsula.

Ukraine is clinging on to a relatively small amount of territory it seized last year in the southern Russia province of Kursk.

Currently, Ukrainian and Russia troops are facing off along a 600-mile frontline, which has gradually been pushed deeper into Ukraine due to Russian advances.

The decision to suspend military aid came three days after a dramatic clash in the Oval Office between presidents Trump and Zelensky.

To date, the US has provided military aid worth £53 billion to Ukraine, compared to Europe's combined total, which includes Britain, of £51 billion.

While, in theory, Europe could eventually double its support for Ukraine - and use frozen Russian assets to pay for weapons - the US supplies a lot of high-end equipment that other states do not possess.

The impact of the suspension of military aid could be felt first by Ukrainian civilians should US-gifted Patriot defence missile systems run dry and leave Kyiv unable to protect its skies from Russian bombardments.

Last night, Nato allies expressed regret over the decision. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen told a thinktank in London 'we need the Americans militarily.

'This definitely shouldn't be a moment where we give in. As on the battlefield, Russia has not really been advancing in recent months.'

French prime minister François Bayrou said the freeze on aid was akin to abandoning Ukraine in favour of a Russian victory.

He told French senators: 'The word 'suspension' fools no one.

'The suspension in war of assistance to an aggressed country signifies that the aggressed country is being abandoned and that one accepts — or hopes — that its aggressor wins. It is obviously unbearable.'

Unsurprisingly, the White House's move was welcomed in the Kremlin, where Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: 'If the US stops or suspends supplies, this will probably be the best contribution to the cause of peace.'

According to Western officials, about 20 per cent of military hardware in the Ukraine comes from the US. Some 25 per cent comes from Europe, including the UK and other nations. About 55 per cent is funded by Ukraine and comes from Ukrainian production.

The pause includes all US military equipment not currently in Ukraine, including weapons in transit and at bases in Poland. It will affect more than £790 million in arms and ammunition, such as rockets, anti-tank weapons and armoured vehicles.

Even before the pause, Ukraine was outnumbered three to one on troops, five to one on artillery and ten to one on artillery vehicles compared to Russia.

Artillery, GPS-guided missile systems and Patriot air defence systems, provided by the US, are deemed essential if Ukraine wants to stave off certain defeat.

Even some sophisticated UK weapons systems, including Storm Shadow cruise missiles rely on the US to hit the right targets.

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said Storm Shadow need the dummy missiles provided by the US to interfere with Russian air defences.

The highly advanced £750 million Patriots are crucial for protecting Ukraine's skies and can do Russia's most advanced ballistic missiles including its air-launched hypersonic Kinzhal.

For this reason, the UK's Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is determined to secure Patriot as part of a US air-cover package for any UK-led European peacekeeping force.

To date, the US has provided Ukraine with more than 40 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), more than 200 Howitzers and more than 300,000 155mm artillery rounds.

It has also sent more than 3 million 155mm artillery rounds, more than 7,000 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds, 1 million 105mm artillery rounds and more than 400,000 152mm artillery rounds.

The US has also gifted more than 700,000 mortar rounds, 31 world-leading Abrams tanks, more than 300 Bradley fighting vehicles and around 2,000 armoured personnel carriers.

[Tamas]

Staggering that such a drastic strategic 180 degree turn is possible.

Quite clearly, the US President is in fact an elected dictator, at least that's what Trump is exposing to the world.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Sometimes I post before thinking, and thought my own comment a bit flippant and unneccesary, but since you caught me, I shall try to restore some dignity and repost it for posterity. 

"If an agreement were made to NOT have European peacekeepers, but then 20,000 "little green Euro-men" showed up in Ukraine...what would Putin do about it? "

Whatever the effectiveness of that specific idea, I think you're on the right track, that Europe needs to start surprising Putin henceforth, rather than just reacting to Putin's moves.

Have a strategy to destabilise Trans-deneister, returning it to Moldova, maybe then get them to join NATO.

Or perhaps start accidentally damaging Russian infrastructure in and around Kalingrad restrict land access like the Israelis do with Gaza aid?

Maybe attempt to pull* some of the 'Stan' dictators away from his orbit.

*bribe them.

But that's not playing by the rules!

How about a 150 page policy document discussing the possibility of forming a focus group to establish a committee for investigating sociocultural engagement opportunities with relevant stakeholders in Russia?

[mongers]

Sometimes I post before thinking, and thought my own comment a bit flippant and unneccesary, but since you caught me, I shall try to restore some dignity and repost it for posterity. 

"If an agreement were made to NOT have European peacekeepers, but then 20,000 "little green Euro-men" showed up in Ukraine...what would Putin do about it? "

Whatever the effectiveness of that specific idea, I think you're on the right track, that Europe needs to start surprising Putin henceforth, rather than just reacting to Putin's moves.

Have a strategy to destabilise Trans-deneister, returning it to Moldova, maybe then get them to join NATO.

Or perhaps start accidentally damaging Russian infrastructure in and around Kalingrad restrict land access like the Israelis do with Gaza aid?

Maybe attempt to pull* some of the 'Stan' dictators away from his orbit.

*bribe them.

But that's not playing by the rules!

How about a 150 page policy document discussing the possibility of forming a focus group to establish a committee for investigating sociocultural engagement opportunities with relevant stakeholders in Russia?

 

That is after all the Democratic way.

[Razgovory]

Staggering that such a drastic strategic 180 degree turn is possible.

Quite clearly, the US President is in fact an elected dictator, at least that's what Trump is exposing to the world.

The death of the Empress Elizabeth of Russia caused a similar turn in politics, saving Prussia.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Staggering that such a drastic strategic 180 degree turn is possible.

Quite clearly, the US President is in fact an elected dictator, at least that's what Trump is exposing to the world.

The death of the Empress Elizabeth of Russia caused a similar turn in politics, saving Prussia.

Yes, been thinking about that similarity of late.

[DGuller]

Staggering that such a drastic strategic 180 degree turn is possible.

Quite clearly, the US President is in fact an elected dictator, at least that's what Trump is exposing to the world.

The death of the Empress Elizabeth of Russia caused a similar turn in politics, saving Prussia.

Yes, been thinking about that similarity of late.

Does that mean that Catherine the Great will come to power in a couple of months?  

[Sheilbh]

Daily Wail and all but:

So it's being confirmed elsewhere but details still a little shaky.

It is intelligence sourced from the US - so not intelligence acquired by other five eyes agencies themselves - and so far it seems limited to intelligence used for targeting within Russia. Which will have an impact (though I think we shouldn't underestimate Ukrainians capability) - but is relatively limited.

More significant would be if they blocked sharing US-sourced intelligence on Russia's strategic intentions or in Ukraine targeting.

The CIA chief said Trump asked for a "pause" - can't help but feel this sounds like the CIA (and I assume other agencies) finessing that.

[HVC]

Trump has gotten away on assault and no one cares if he cheats (again) so I wonder what Russia has on him. My going  theory is him getting pegged by little people.

[Tamas]

Most lenient explanation I have heard is that he wants peace ASAP (maybe gunning for a Nobel, IDK) without caring too much about its shape. He and his people have figured they can't really bully Russia into it, not quickly enough anyways, so they'll just coerce the weaker party.

Also this whole minerals deal, I find it sickening that everyone just accepted it as a normal thing for it to be a VERY IMPORTANT THING, when it is obvious to everyone I am sure, that it's just a Trump pet peeve

[PJL]

Staggering that such a drastic strategic 180 degree turn is possible.

Quite clearly, the US President is in fact an elected dictator, at least that's what Trump is exposing to the world.

The death of the Empress Elizabeth of Russia caused a similar turn in politics, saving Prussia.

Yes, been thinking about that similarity of late.

Me too. Can't think of any other historical parrallel.

[The Minsky Moment]

Wondering what Russia "has" on Trump is missing what is really going on.

• Trump is not providing financial reporting nor doing anything to segregate or blind trust his business activities.  Because he got away with this in 2017, the media now accepts this as normal and ignores it, although it is a gross deviation from ethical practice. 
• Both Trumps launched cryptocoins AFTER the election and the family is investing broadly in the crypto space - these are all vehicles for accepting large and untraceable foreign bribes and kick- backs. 
• In one of the most badly unreported by Trump's executive orders, he completely halted enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which normally does exactly what it sounds like.
• In another badly under-reported step, the US Treasury has suspended reporting requirements under the Corporate Transactions Act, used to detect and enforce money laundering regulations
• The SEC has ceased all enforcement actions in the crypto space, and withdrawn all rulemaking efforts
• The administration announced a planned national crypto reserve -- i.e. use of government funds to bolster crypto prices.  Shortly before the announcement, a trader took massive positions in bitcoin and ETH, closing out the position shortly after.  I.e. there was a tip off.

Another curious fact - in a key oval office meeting with a foreign leader (Zelensky), the Secretary of State was sinking silently in his chair, NSA is nowhere to be seen or heard. Instead, the Vice President of all people is taking the lead.  It is as yet unclear exactly what role Vance is playing and is going to play in this administration nominally headed by an absentee elderly golfer. What is clear is that Vance was Don Junior's choice and conducts himself in every way as a Trump family surrogate.

Russia is no longer a military superpower, it is an economic pygmy, its diplomatic reach is limited. 

But Russia is a money laundering superpower; it is a superpower in terms of state involvement in transnational organized crime, is the corruption superpower par excellence.

The animating governing principle of Trump47 is kleptocracy.  We are told Trump is "transactional" and that is very literally so.  In every relationship and interaction, the question for Trump is whether he benefits, and the highest and only truly relevant benefit for Trump is personal financial gain.  For Trump, the winner is whoever has the biggest bank balance and we all know Trump must always win. In that context, a connection with Russia is not only a logical move, it is inevitable.  Russia doesn't need anything "on" him.  They just need to be Russia and Trump needs to be Trump.