[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[HVC]

Was there a trigger, or just buyers remorse for a new party?

The usual power fatigue. CAQ is in it's 2nd mandate and started blundering thru some not thought out decisions. Polls shows a CAQ ressurgence everytime they go on vacation or nothing is going on.

Thanks, I guess that makes sense.

[Neil]

Poilievre seems to have learned from his relative quiet in the late-January crisis (although to be fair, he had spent December and January condemning US tariffs), because he came out blasting right away this time. 

[Barrister]

So I'm in no way able to see into the future, and I'm no polling superguru.

But as a simple, unfrozen caveman lawyer, I can see that Carney is benefitting heavily from a new leader bounce combined with a rally around the flag bounce.  These are both phenomenon which are temporary, although the they do last a period of time.

We shall see if that carries through to an actual election.

For sure there's a new leader bounce, and a rally around the flag effect as well.

I think the risk for Poilievre is that the nonsense in the US continues unabated, extending the rally around the flag effect for a long time. This is especially true if the Liberals become seen as the once who represent the flag.

But like you said, we shall see.

An election campaign will be informative.

Poilievre is untested as a leader during an election, but at least has been in politics for two decades.  I think his performance is effective (although some others seem to think differently).  Carney is completely new to this.  While he hasn't made any huge blunders so far, I don't think he's impressed either.

The Liberals certainly benefit in that Trump has shaken up the election issues.  Nobody is going to be talking about the carbon tax.  But will that be enough to overcome 9 years of Liberal leadership?


I also almost feel sorry for Freeland.  It's the old story of "the hand that wields the knife shall never wear the Crown".  She didn't exactly stab Trudeau in the back, but her very public resignation did much to force Trudeau's resignation.  Yet amongst Liberals I suspect she will get no credit for doing so.

[crazy canuck]

Having been making the case for the last couple of years that Carney is the one hope the Liberals have, I am not surprised by his polling numbers.

I would have preferred he had more time so he could make a clean house of the party and get rid of the Trudeau faction.

I agree entirely.  But here we are.

[crazy canuck]

Poilievre seems to have learned from his relative quiet in the late-January crisis (although to be fair, he had spent December and January condemning US tariffs), because he came out blasting right away this time. 

What did he do?

[Barrister]

Having been making the case for the last couple of years that Carney is the one hope the Liberals have, I am not surprised by his polling numbers.

I would have preferred he had more time so he could make a clean house of the party and get rid of the Trudeau faction.

I agree entirely.  But here we are.

With respect I think this is a misreading of the situation within the Liberal Party.

Carney is being lifted by the Trudeau faction.  Trudeau tried for a long time to get Carney to join his government.  Katie Telford, Trudeau's Chief of Staff, has been supporting Carney.  As has former Trudeau advisor Gerald Butts.


Now Carney is his own man, and a Carney-led government would obviously not be a 100% continuation of the Trudeau legacy.  But a Carney-led government would be the closest thing to a continuation of that legacy.  Freeland, Poilievre, heck even Singh would be far more radical changes.

[Neil]

Poilievre seems to have learned from his relative quiet in the late-January crisis (although to be fair, he had spent December and January condemning US tariffs), because he came out blasting right away this time. 

What did he do?

Condemned the tariffs as unwise and unnecessary and called for strong and targeted retaliation.  Pretty much exactly what you'd expect.

[Barrister]

Poilievre seems to have learned from his relative quiet in the late-January crisis (although to be fair, he had spent December and January condemning US tariffs), because he came out blasting right away this time. 

What did he do?

Condemned the tariffs as unwise and unnecessary and called for strong and targeted retaliation.  Pretty much exactly what you'd expect.

Problem for him is it is the exact same response everyone is suggesting - because it seems to be the correct one.

[Neil]

Problem for him is it is the exact same response everyone is suggesting - because it seems to be the correct one.

True, but last time he was more subdued, relying on his past statements to be carried on, and that hurt him. 

If they could play 'He's a secret Nazi!' on Harper, then how much easier is it to do so against Poilievre, who has said some contemptibly stupid things?

[viper37]

So I'm in no way able to see into the future, and I'm no polling superguru.

But as a simple, unfrozen caveman lawyer, I can see that Carney is benefitting heavily from a new leader bounce combined with a rally around the flag bounce.  These are both phenomenon which are temporary, although the they do last a period of time.

We shall see if that carries through to an actual election.

For sure there's a new leader bounce, and a rally around the flag effect as well.

I think the risk for Poilievre is that the nonsense in the US continues unabated, extending the rally around the flag effect for a long time. This is especially true if the Liberals become seen as the once who represent the flag.

But like you said, we shall see.

An election campaign will be informative.

Poilievre is untested as a leader during an election, but at least has been in politics for two decades.  I think his performance is effective (although some others seem to think differently).  Carney is completely new to this.  While he hasn't made any huge blunders so far, I don't think he's impressed either.

The Liberals certainly benefit in that Trump has shaken up the election issues.  Nobody is going to be talking about the carbon tax.  But will that be enough to overcome 9 years of Liberal leadership?

Poilièvre campaign manager is a MAGA lover, proudly wearing her colours.

Many of his closest allies are MAGA supporters.  He was eccstatic about Trump's victory in November.

That, and his refusal to get his security clearance will be his downfall.

He is way too soft on the US and has no plan for the challenges ahead.  He is completely lost, out of his element when he can't attack Trudeau.

He's like a bully, picking on his target when they are weak, when he can be with his gang, but unable to stand up when he is confronted.

[crazy canuck]

Freeland, Poilievre, heck even Singh would be far more radical changes.

Freeland was Trudeau's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister for years. You are going to have to explain how you came to the conclusion she would be more of a change from Trudeau than someone who was not in the Trudeau government.

And of course Poilievre would be a more radical change.  But for those of us who have no appetite for playing footsie with fascists, that is not very appealing.

[PRC]

It doesn't matter if Carney is a Liberal insider or an outsider to the extreme... or any other Lib candidate for that matter. 

Poilievre will tie them together, the Trudeau-Carney alliance is going to be all over his campaign messaging whether it's true or not.  Singh will be thrown in the mix from time-to-time as well.

Anti-Trudeau messaging is going to be a part of Conservative narrative for decades, it already has been with Trudeau senior.

[Jacob]

Yeah I think you're right PRC. The deciding factor is probably whether the public mood is more inclined to respond to anti-Trudeau messaging or anti-Trump messaging.

Is it worse to play footsie with Trudeau or to play footsie with MAGA?

[crazy canuck]

It doesn't matter if Carney is a Liberal insider or an outsider to the extreme... or any other Lib candidate for that matter. 

Poilievre will tie them together, the Trudeau-Carney alliance is going to be all over his campaign messaging whether it's true or not.  Singh will be thrown in the mix from time-to-time as well.

Anti-Trudeau messaging is going to be a part of Conservative narrative for decades, it already has been with Trudeau senior.

Yes I agree entirely that will be the approach.  It happened immediately after Trudeau resigned. I assume BB got his speaking notes that somehow Freeland would be more of a change than Carney from the Conservative messaging that is going out. And frankly, if the Canadian population is gullible enough to buy PP's propaganda, then Canadians deserve to be ruled by MAGA lite playing footsie with fascists.

But I am more optimistic about the judgment of Canadians.

[Grey Fox]

Canadians wit large, sure. Are you about the Ontarians about to reelect Ford?