[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

I think it is only 10% on aluminum. But yeah, prices for all things made of metal in the US just went up.

Yet again, another self-directed targeted blow to the viability of American manufacturing.

As per Ford CEO, this is the biggest help to foreign car manufacturers.

[crazy canuck]

Having been making the case for the last couple of years that Carney is the one hope the Liberals have, I am not surprised by his polling numbers.

[viper37]

@Jos:
yeah, this is new.  Fuck that clown.
Aluminum can be sent to Europe as easily as the US.  Let's do it.



In other news (text in French):
New poll: Libs at 37% with Carney, Cons at 37%

Si des élections avaient lieu maintenant, le sondage donne aux libéraux 31 % d'appuis, alors que les conservateurs sont toujours en tête avec 40 %, et les néo-démocrates loin derrière avec 14 %. 
Le sondeur suggère par contre que le soutien à un PLC dirigé par Chrystia Freeland chuterait de trois points, à 28 %, contre 39 % pour les conservateurs.

Elections today:
31% Libs, 40% Cons, NDP at 14%.

If Carney is Liberal leader:
37% Libs, 37% Cons

If Freeland is Liberal leader:
28% Libs, 39% Cons.

If it keeps Mr. P out of power so be it.

Look at www.qc125.com.

You can see all the polls and the seat projections.

The Cons where at their highest on 01-19.
Since then, it's been a free fall.

It's their "Fuck Trudeau" moment and they can't see it.

[viper37]

Having been making the case for the last couple of years that Carney is the one hope the Liberals have, I am not surprised by his polling numbers.

I would have preferred he had more time so he could make a clean house of the party and get rid of the Trudeau faction.

[HVC]

What happened there with the PQ CAQ flip?

[Barrister]

So I'm in no way able to see into the future, and I'm no polling superguru.

But as a simple, unfrozen caveman lawyer, I can see that Carney is benefitting heavily from a new leader bounce combined with a rally around the flag bounce.  These are both phenomenon which are temporary, although the they do last a period of time.

We shall see if that carries through to an actual election.

[Grey Fox]

What happened there with the PQ CAQ flip?

Francophones support of the CAQ was reduced. They went home to the PQ. Some to the LPQ. But the LPQ is still actively anti-Franco so it has limited appeal for now.

[HVC]

Was there a trigger, or just buyers remorse for a new party?

[HVC]

So I'm in no way able to see into the future, and I'm no polling superguru.

But as a simple, unfrozen caveman lawyer, I can see that Carney is benefitting heavily from a new leader bounce combined with a rally around the flag bounce.  These are both phenomenon which are temporary, although the they do last a period of time.

We shall see if that carries through to an actual election.

poilievre also hasn't exactly been in the ball for all this tariff brouhaha.

[Barrister]

poilievre also hasn't exactly been in the ball for all this tariff brouhaha.

I feel like he's been fine, but there's been no room for him to really separate himself.  Short of saying "you know, becoming the 51st state isn't a bad idea" or "forget a tariff war - we should declare a shooting war on the US" there's not much room for a separate policy response to Trump's tariff threats.

[Grey Fox]

Was there a trigger, or just buyers remorse for a new party?

The usual power fatigue. CAQ is in it's 2nd mandate and started blundering thru some not thought out decisions. Polls shows a CAQ ressurgence everytime they go on vacation or nothing is going on.

[Josephus]

We shall see if that carries through to an actual election.

I have been consistent over the years here in saying the only poll that matters is the one 5 minutes before the election.

[Barrister]

We shall see if that carries through to an actual election.

I have been consistent over the years here in saying the only poll that matters is the one 5 minutes before the election.

Meh.

On the one hand it's true - the only poll that counts is the election itself.

But beyond that - polling is predictive.  We can sometimes see big swings in polling results - but we usually don't.  Usually the winner on election day is the party that was leading in the polls, probably for months.

"The only poll that counts is the one on election day" is almost always uttered by a party and leader that is behind in the polls.

[HVC]

"The only poll that counts is the one on election day" is almost always uttered by a party and leader that is behind in the polls.

Josephus is a NDP guy, so that follows

And while this might be a blip, as long as Trump keeps being erratic* Mr. P will keep sliding down the polls.

*basically guaranteed

[Jacob]

So I'm in no way able to see into the future, and I'm no polling superguru.

But as a simple, unfrozen caveman lawyer, I can see that Carney is benefitting heavily from a new leader bounce combined with a rally around the flag bounce.  These are both phenomenon which are temporary, although the they do last a period of time.

We shall see if that carries through to an actual election.

For sure there's a new leader bounce, and a rally around the flag effect as well.

I think the risk for Poilievre is that the nonsense in the US continues unabated, extending the rally around the flag effect for a long time. This is especially true if the Liberals become seen as the once who represent the flag.

But like you said, we shall see.