What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Barrister]

Also, my understanding on New York was that the corner had been turned before Rudy took over - but continued and he got the credit. I could be wrong but I think the crime riddled cesspit had really peaked in late 70s/early 80s and the city was recovering.

No there was a big spike in the late 80s and early 90s associated with the crack cocaine "epidemic".  That plus the Crown Heights Rios doomed Dinkins.

There are a lot of theories why crime declined in the 90s including demographic explanations, and the delayed effect of regulations on lead paint and additivies. Drug "epidemics" tend to follow a rise and fall pattern and that was definitely true of crack. A lot of hard core addicts died off and youth culture turned against the drug because its users were so pathetic.

Whatever the causes, the decline in crime coincided with Rudy's mayoralty and so naturally he could credibly claim cause and effect with his policing reforms. Rudy also committed to a high impact makeover of one of Times Square, one of the most visible and iconic locales in the city. The changes were striking and were sustained over the long haul and came to define the Rudy effect.

Just some random observations:

-I always found the suggestion that the crime drop in the 90s was due to the elimination of leaded gasoline so frustratingly hard to prove.  Not that eliminating lead in gasoline was simple - but could just one change cause such a drastic effect?

-not mentioned by you, but I've also seen suggested that the decline in crime in the 90s was caused by the easing of abortion from Roe v Wade.

-Times Square - yeah from what I remember from popular culture in the 80s Times Square was a massive dump, and it was only when renovated in the 90s it became such a massive tourist attraction

-just a general observation of NYC (prompted by talking about Times Square).  I've only ever been there once, in 2001.  But it was weird how a place you've never been to can seem so familiar just through the massive cultural influence NYC has.

[crazy canuck]

Well, you know, it was named by a private company for marketing purposes back when there weren't all these other baseball leagues in other countries. And I am not entirely sure our World Series Champion would beat the Japanese Champion.

But on the other hand we have players from all over the world now so it is more of a World Series now than it ever was.

I didn't know that.  Thanks.

The name "World Series" comes from challenge issued by the owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates to the owner of the Boston Red Sox.  It was probably deliberately grandiose to stir up interest. Over time the original "World's Championship Series" got shortened to "World Series."  As Valmy notes, there were no professional leagues back then bar the AL and NL, so a "world's champion" from just those two leagues made sense, but the title wasn't really meant to refer to the world.  The reference to the "world" was just meant to entice the owner of the Red Sox to play the series or concede the title of "world champions" to the Pirates.

Languish at its best. Thanks guys 

[crazy canuck]

Also, my understanding on New York was that the corner had been turned before Rudy took over - but continued and he got the credit. I could be wrong but I think the crime riddled cesspit had really peaked in late 70s/early 80s and the city was recovering.

No there was a big spike in the late 80s and early 90s associated with the crack cocaine "epidemic".  That plus the Crown Heights Rios doomed Dinkins.

There are a lot of theories why crime declined in the 90s including demographic explanations, and the delayed effect of regulations on lead paint and additivies. Drug "epidemics" tend to follow a rise and fall pattern and that was definitely true of crack. A lot of hard core addicts died off and youth culture turned against the drug because its users were so pathetic.

Whatever the causes, the decline in crime coincided with Rudy's mayoralty and so naturally he could credibly claim cause and effect with his policing reforms. Rudy also committed to a high impact makeover of one of Times Square, one of the most visible and iconic locales in the city. The changes were striking and were sustained over the long haul and came to define the Rudy effect.

Just some random observations:

-I always found the suggestion that the crime drop in the 90s was due to the elimination of leaded gasoline so frustratingly hard to prove.  Not that eliminating lead in gasoline was simple - but could just one change cause such a drastic effect?

-not mentioned by you, but I've also seen suggested that the decline in crime in the 90s was caused by the easing of abortion from Roe v Wade.

-Times Square - yeah from what I remember from popular culture in the 80s Times Square was a massive dump, and it was only when renovated in the 90s it became such a massive tourist attraction

-just a general observation of NYC (prompted by talking about Times Square).  I've only ever been there once, in 2001.  But it was weird how a place you've never been to can seem so familiar just through the massive cultural influence NYC has.

In the 80s there were predictions that the crime rate would decrease simply as a function of the population aging.  I think that is as good an explanation as any. In the 90s when the crime rate did start decreasing people jumped on a bunch of correlations without great evidence of causation.  I am not sure if there have been any studies to follow up on the aging demographic theory.  But that seems the most intuitive.

[grumbler]

-I always found the suggestion that the crime drop in the 90s was due to the elimination of leaded gasoline so frustratingly hard to prove.  Not that eliminating lead in gasoline was simple - but could just one change cause such a drastic effect?

It's not possible to prove that correlation provides evidence of causation, but the correlation is very strong, down to neighborhood levels.  It's probably not just leaded gasoline, though.  Paint used to have a high lead content, and renovations that eliminated that probably helped.  The time delay between cause and effect makes it hard to draw hard conclusions.

[viper37]

And he does seem to do a great job charming a certain kind of person. Elon is clearly being charmed and sucked up to. Of course if Trump wins he will get rid of him the second he becomes a liability. But people like Rudy and Elon have tremendous egos, they don't think it will happen to them. They think they are special.

Who will get rid of whom?

I think Elon and others have a plan in place to get rid of Trump on the basis of incapacity and replace him by his VP, a more... malleable, predictable person.

[The Minsky Moment]

Well, you know, it was named by a private company for marketing purposes back when there weren't all these other baseball leagues in other countries. And I am not entirely sure our World Series Champion would beat the Japanese Champion.

But on the other hand we have players from all over the world now so it is more of a World Series now than it ever was.

I didn't know that.  Thanks.

The name "World Series" comes from challenge issued by the owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates to the owner of the Boston Red Sox.  It was probably deliberately grandiose to stir up interest. Over time the original "World's Championship Series" got shortened to "World Series."  As Valmy notes, there were no professional leagues back then bar the AL and NL, so a "world's champion" from just those two leagues made sense, but the title wasn't really meant to refer to the world.  The reference to the "world" was just meant to entice the owner of the Red Sox to play the series or concede the title of "world champions" to the Pirates.

Because it was just a glorified exhibition, requiring the cooperation of the two clubs, it wasn't held in 1904 (at least not offically ). There was an agreement to restore in 05 and because of the popularity it became formalized.  However, somewhere in the gaming section, I posted accounts of the "lost" 1904 series.

[Admiral Yi]

I think the Freakanomics dude said lead water pipes, not leaded gasoline.

[Barrister]

I think the Freakanomics dude said lead water pipes, not leaded gasoline.

This is going back years, but I definitely heard leaded gasoline.

"Problem" with lead water pipes (and also lead-based paint) is that they can stay in homes for decades even after banning.  Whereas banning of leaded gas (which took years before becoming final) once banned completely removed it from human ingestion.

There are still homes in the US (and Canada) with lead paint and lead pipes.

[Admiral Yi]

This is going back years, but I definitely heard leaded gasoline.

"Problem" with lead water pipes (and also lead-based paint) is that they can stay in homes for decades even after banning.  Whereas banning of leaded gas (which took years before becoming final) once banned completely removed it from human ingestion.

There are still homes in the US (and Canada) with lead paint and lead pipes.

The "advantage" of lead pipes from a scientific pov is that, as grumbler pointed out, the date elimination of lead pipes varies from location to location, and that variance can then be tracked against variance in change of crime rates to demonstrate causality.  You can't do that with a nationwide change like gas.

[Barrister]

This is going back years, but I definitely heard leaded gasoline.

"Problem" with lead water pipes (and also lead-based paint) is that they can stay in homes for decades even after banning.  Whereas banning of leaded gas (which took years before becoming final) once banned completely removed it from human ingestion.

There are still homes in the US (and Canada) with lead paint and lead pipes.

The "advantage" of lead pipes from a scientific pov is that, as grumbler pointed out, the date elimination of lead pipes varies from location to location, and that variance can then be tracked against variance in change of crime rates to demonstrate causality.  You can't do that with a nationwide change like gas.

So this is one of those topics where I hardly have some vast knowledge of and am going off of things vaguely heard years ago.

But as I understand it there has never been a ban on the use of lead pipes, and lead pipes continues to be used in some homes.  The only ban was on the installation of new lead pipes.

It's the same as asbestos - which continues to exist in numerous locations, even as the new installation of asbestos has been banned for decades.

Whereas bans on leaded gasoline can be easily tracked to distance from major highways.

[crazy canuck]

Abstract
Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime, pooling 542 estimates from 24 studies. The effect of lead is overstated in the literature due to publication bias. Our main estimates of the mean effect sizes are a partial correlation of 0.16, and an elasticity of 0.09. Our estimates suggest the abatement of lead pollution may be responsible for 7–28% of the fall in homicide in the US. Given the historically higher urban lead levels, reduced lead pollution accounted for 6–20% of the convergence in US urban and rural crime rates. Lead increases crime, but does not explain the majority of the fall in crime observed in some countries in the 20th century. Additional explanations are needed.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046222000667?via%3Dihub

[viper37]

I think the Freakanomics dude said lead water pipes, not leaded gasoline.

The hypothesis was about leaded gasoline.  That I remember, and I went to double-check my memory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis

As Grumbler said, it is it mutually exclusive with other hypothesis to explain the crime drop.

[Zanza]

America gives up on the Pax Americana of the last 70 years and the international institutions it championed to implement the globalised world.

This from eight years ago. Plus destroying domestic democratic institutions.

[The Minsky Moment]

The most consequential immediate impact will turn on how seriously and how effectively a Trump administration will act to dismantle the Federal bureaucracy.  That's an area where the President can do an enormous amount of lasting damage without much in the way of Congressional oversight or control (assuming that a Congress exists to exert such oversight).

[Razgovory]

Well, at least we won't have to do this again four years from now.