What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Valmy]

Was Rudy popular outside of his 9/11 response/management? If memory serves, he was pretty reviled before that by most folks. His, "America's Mayor" title pretty much solely had to do with the 9/11 hero worship/Event Memory that was deeply implanted into American and, to a lesser extent, global consciousness.

Yeah. People had this image of NYC as this crime riddled cesspool and it appeared he had cleaned it up and turned it into urban Disneyland. Now I understand that he was very unpopular among the black communities he was stomping on but outside the city, at least with the mainstream white America, he was seen as a great mayor.

And then obviously 9/11 happened and for a brief time all things New York became sacred. The Yankees were even a sentimental favorite to win the Baseball championship FFS, and of course the one time people didn't hate them they lost. Because the Yankees are just that evil.

[Sheilbh]

Also, my understanding on New York was that the corner had been turned before Rudy took over - but continued and he got the credit. I could be wrong but I think the crime riddled cesspit had really peaked in late 70s/early 80s and the city was recovering.

It's also one of those things where I wonder how much any of the mayors mattered at all (or any politician) because I think there's similar trends of urban decay in lots of Western cities in that period: London (and other cities across the UK), Milan, Paris. In all cases probably because industry is moving out of the city - followed by culture, arts and services led renewal and reinvention in the 90s and 00s?

[Valmy]

Also, my understanding on New York was that the corner had been turned before Rudy took over - but continued and he got the credit. I could be wrong but I think the crime riddled cesspit had really peaked in late 70s/early 80s and the city was recovering.

It's also one of those things where I wonder how much any of the mayors mattered at all (or any politician) because I think there's similar trends of urban decay in lots of Western cities in that period: London (and other cities across the UK), Milan, Paris. In all cases probably because industry is moving out of the city - followed by culture, arts and services led renewal and reinvention in the 90s and 00s?

Sure, he probably benefitted from all that.

But he was also making headlines with his innovative crime fighting methods, stopping and frisking and all that. 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah the "broken windows" stuff was picked up worldwide (and I still think there is something to the idea).

[frunk]

It's also one of those things where I wonder how much any of the mayors mattered at all (or any politician) because I think there's similar trends of urban decay in lots of Western cities in that period: London (and other cities across the UK), Milan, Paris. In all cases probably because industry is moving out of the city - followed by culture, arts and services led renewal and reinvention in the 90s and 00s?

My understanding is that the strongest correlation for the rise and fall of violent crime in the period is the use of lead in gasoline (and maybe paint?).  I think much of the decay and renewal follows from that.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Was Rudy popular outside of his 9/11 response/management? If memory serves, he was pretty reviled before that by most folks. His, "America's Mayor" title pretty much solely had to do with the 9/11 hero worship/Event Memory that was deeply implanted into American and, to a lesser extent, global consciousness.

Yeah. People had this image of NYC as this crime riddled cesspool and it appeared he had cleaned it up and turned it into urban Disneyland. Now I understand that he was very unpopular among the black communities he was stomping on but outside the city, at least with the mainstream white America, he was seen as a great mayor.

And then obviously 9/11 happened and for a brief time all things New York became sacred. The Yankees were even a sentimental favorite to win the Baseball championship FFS, and of course the one time people didn't hate them they lost. Because the Yankees are just that evil.

Let's at least talk like Americans for god's sake. It isn't called the "baseball championship" it is the World Series. Starts this Friday by the way!

[Valmy]

Let's at least talk like Americans for god's sake. It isn't called the "baseball championship" it is the World Series. Starts this Friday by the way!

Yep. Evil vs Evil. I will watch it anyway!

I had to consider my mostly international audience 

[crazy canuck]

Let's at least talk like Americans for god's sake. It isn't called the "baseball championship" it is the World Series. Starts this Friday by the way!

Yep. Evil vs Evil. I will watch it anyway!

I had to consider my mostly international audience 

Yeah, it's a hard sell to convince anybody it's a World Series when the only teams who can win are in North America.

[Valmy]

Let's at least talk like Americans for god's sake. It isn't called the "baseball championship" it is the World Series. Starts this Friday by the way!

Yep. Evil vs Evil. I will watch it anyway!

I had to consider my mostly international audience 

Yeah, it's a hard sell to convince anybody it's a World Series when the only teams who can win are in North America.

Well, you know, it was named by a private company for marketing purposes back when there weren't all these other baseball leagues in other countries. And I am not entirely sure our World Series Champion would beat the Japanese Champion.

But on the other hand we have players from all over the world now so it is more of a World Series now than it ever was.

[garbon]

Yeah the "broken windows" stuff was picked up worldwide (and I still think there is something to the idea).

My understanding back in university is that broken windows isn't all that great for explaining things.

[Barrister]

Yeah the "broken windows" stuff was picked up worldwide (and I still think there is something to the idea).

My understanding back in university is that broken windows isn't all that great for explaining things.

I think there's a lot to it.  Visible signs of disorder make people feel unsafe, which discourages law-abiding people from going to certain areas, which in turn encourages more criminal elements to flock to that area.

Let me talk about - my office tunnel.

We have a tunnel going from my office to the courthouse.  Which is great in winter - saves us from cold Edmonton winters.  But in recent years homeless have been camping out in the tunnel - which includes open drug use.  Which makes my co-workers feel uneasy about going in the tunnel, which reduces traffic, which in turns just encourages more homeless people to go there.

Coming back to Giuliani - in any big public policy issue an attempt to credit (or blame) one office holder is invariably inaccurate.  The decrease in crime in NYC is certainly not the sole responsibility of Mayor Giuliani.  But it wasn't a complete accident either.

So to answer the question - his popularity was not solely because of 9/11 - but obviously that was a huge factor also.

It's also worth noting how unusual it was to have a Republican mayor of NYC.  Before Giuliani you had to go back to John Lindsay in the 60s (and he even switch parties to be a Democrat), and before that La Guardia in the 30s.  (yes I totally knew that off the top of my head and didn't have to google it at all)

[crazy canuck]

Well, you know, it was named by a private company for marketing purposes back when there weren't all these other baseball leagues in other countries. And I am not entirely sure our World Series Champion would beat the Japanese Champion.

But on the other hand we have players from all over the world now so it is more of a World Series now than it ever was.

I didn't know that.  Thanks.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah the "broken windows" stuff was picked up worldwide (and I still think there is something to the idea).

My understanding back in university is that broken windows isn't all that great for explaining things.

Yeah, about the time you were in University people started realizing it was not valid.  Over the last 10 years there have been a number of studies saying just that.  But there are other effects which were not identified in the original theory - such as an effect on mental health.  So in the end, its still a good idea to prevent things getting run down.  But not for the reasons originally proposed.

[The Minsky Moment]

Also, my understanding on New York was that the corner had been turned before Rudy took over - but continued and he got the credit. I could be wrong but I think the crime riddled cesspit had really peaked in late 70s/early 80s and the city was recovering.

No there was a big spike in the late 80s and early 90s associated with the crack cocaine "epidemic".  That plus the Crown Heights Riots doomed Dinkins.

There are a lot of theories why crime declined in the 90s including demographic explanations, and the delayed effect of regulations on lead paint and additivies. Drug "epidemics" tend to follow a rise and fall pattern and that was definitely true of crack. A lot of hard core addicts died off and youth culture turned against the drug because its users were so pathetic.

Whatever the causes, the decline in crime coincided with Rudy's mayoralty and so naturally he could credibly claim cause and effect with his policing reforms. Rudy also committed to a high impact makeover of one of Times Square, one of the most visible and iconic locales in the city. The changes were striking and were sustained over the long haul and came to define the Rudy effect.

[grumbler]

Well, you know, it was named by a private company for marketing purposes back when there weren't all these other baseball leagues in other countries. And I am not entirely sure our World Series Champion would beat the Japanese Champion.

But on the other hand we have players from all over the world now so it is more of a World Series now than it ever was.

I didn't know that.  Thanks.

The name "World Series" comes from challenge issued by the owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates to the owner of the Boston Red Sox.  It was probably deliberately grandiose to stir up interest. Over time the original "World's Championship Series" got shortened to "World Series."  As Valmy notes, there were no professional leagues back then bar the AL and NL, so a "world's champion" from just those two leagues made sense, but the title wasn't really meant to refer to the world.  The reference to the "world" was just meant to entice the owner of the Red Sox to play the series or concede the title of "world champions" to the Pirates.