Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[alfred russel]

Edit: It is worth noting that it's at a record high recently - not least because patronage is something that is an easy way to buy loyalty.

Boris should ask for a refund. 

[Sheilbh]

Boris should ask for a refund. 

The sad moment in every party leader's career when the perks of bribery and self-interested ambition are outweighed by self-preservation and the risk of losing their seat

[alfred russel]

Does he have any chance at this point of surviving another couple months? Does he have any path out of this?

[Sheilbh]

Cabinet ministers are gathering in Number 10 to tell Johnson it's untenable for him to carry on - I quite like the ones who are walking in, in full view of the press.

From people who are monitoring this more closely than me it seems like the only cabinet minister not telling him that are Dorries and Rees-Mogg (Truss and Sharma out of the country).

The 1922 Committee executive didn't change the rules, but moved forward the vote on a new executive to Monday. Basically it feels like backbenchers are giving him and the cabinet a weekend to arrange a quasi-dignified exit. But making it possible to act quicker after the weekend. Meanwhile we're up to 37 resignations.

[Sheilbh]

Does he have any chance at this point of surviving another couple months? Does he have any path out of this?

No. The Prime Minister is whoever can command a majority in the House of Commons. It's over. There's a majority of Tory MPs. They wanted Johnson to be their leader and now they don't. Johnson and Rees-Mogg keep talking about his "mandate" from 14 million voters in the last election - but we're a parliamentary democracy not a presidential one. He has a mandate from the people of Uxbridge and South Ruislip as an MP and the support of his parliamentary party as a PM.

There's nothing he can do. There's rumours he might try and call a snap election. That would risk bringing the Queen into politics because she could (probably should and possibly would) refuse his request to dissolve parliament. If there's a risk of bringing the Queen into politics - given all his party already hate him - I think they would do something like choose a caretaker PM and inform the palace that they are the person who commands a majority in the house not Johnson. It's a desperate idea and it doesn't stand up to one minute's scrutiny.

Edit: Although he might resign as Tory leader but stay on as an interim PM until the leadership election is finished. That doesn't strike me as Johnson's style though.

[Syt]

For those of us that don't follow UK politics as closely - what is it about this scandal that made it the straw to finally break the camel's back?

[Sheilbh]

For those of us that don't follow UK politics as closely - what is it about this scandal that made it the straw to finally break the camel's back?

It all comes down to lying and integrity, perhaps inevitably. Partygate and Paterson scandals were really important. The vote of no confidence last month was primarily driven by Partygate and I think the penny has dropped with enough people that Johnson is not going to change - and, unlike previous coups against a leader, this is not about policy it is purely about Johnson personally (which is why it's united all wings of the party from hardest line Brexiters to one nationers).

This one is about Chris Pincher, a deputy chief whip, who got drunk last Thursday and groped a young man. Pressure has built from there over why Johnson appointed him to a partly pastoral role and what he knew about his history of behaviour and when.

The line from Number 10 went from not knowing of any other allegations, to not knowing any other specific allegations, to not knowing any specific allegations that had been formally investigated. Then yesterday morning the former chief civil servant at the FCO published a letter that there had been formal investigations into Pincher when he was junior FCO minister, those investigations upheld the complaints and that Johnson was briefed about them.

The other consistent thing that's pissed off Tory MPs is that Johnson publicly says sorry and takes responsibility, but then privately basically shirks responsibility and blames others.

I've moaned about the other letters suddenly discovering this about Johnson, but this one from Mark Fletcher who witnessed the initial assault is more than that and I think gets the seriousness - that Johnson's attitude in private is basically an "apologist for someone who has committed sexual assault":


Edit: And the reason that letter's significant is that - according to a Tory MPs question in PMQs - Johnson told a group of backbenchers that someone should have intervened and blamed the alcohol. As he pointed out that's an insult to the people who did intervene and to the victim because it absolves blame from Piincher.

[Syt]

Thanks.

[Sheilbh]

People gathering at the Downing Street gates - plus a mob of journalists - for the traditional transfer of power: a car speeding away from jeering crowds

Edit: As I say apparently a lot of the cabinet and now the chair of the 1922 in Downing Street to tell Johnson he can't go on - also Nadine Dorries and I would love to be a fly on the wall for that.

[Jacob]

In this trying times it's good to be able to enjoy the fleeting pleasure of Johnson's discomfort.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally - despite everything else going on - I think this by Ben Wallace is excellent. It's an unusually frank and honest assessment of where we are on defence and what we need to fix:
https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1544570114590359553?s=20&t=boSU9OcI6G7yH_nd_8BtBQ

There's rumours he would like to follow Stoltenberg as NATO Secretary General - but if that's not an option I think he'd be a very formidable leadership contender and whoever wins I hope they keep him at the MoD.

Edit: And frankly I think his comments there probably apply to every country in the West including, quite possibly, even the US.

[Grey Fox]

Sound crazy to me that Westminster ministers do resign quite often out, of what I would call, spite.

[Sheilbh]

Sound crazy to me that Westminster ministers do resign quite often out, of what I would call, spite.

Interesting - our politics is gentle and refined compared to the Aussies. I think they're the most brutal and maybe sometimes spiteful. I don't understand why but the number of leadership spills in Australian politics is crazy - I mean they've had seven leaders since Howard in 2007, and only two have lasted more than three years

I always find the lack of resignations in other countries weird - especially the US. I just don't really understand how it works in a system where people don't feel they should resign or get pressured into it. It's always a bit baffling - I can't work out what the control mechanism or steam valve is when things go badly wrong politically.

[Grey Fox]

Sound crazy to me that Westminster ministers do resign quite often out, of what I would call, spite.

Interesting - our politics is gentle and refined compared to the Aussies. I think they're the most brutal and maybe sometimes spiteful. I don't understand why but the number of leadership spills in Australian politics is crazy - I mean they've had seven leaders since Howard in 2007, and only two have lasted more than three years

I always find the lack of resignations in other countries weird - especially the US. I just don't really understand how it works in a system where people don't feel they should resign or get pressured into it. It's always a bit baffling - I can't work out what the control mechanism or steam valve is when things go badly wrong politically.

Well for the USA. The executive changes regularly and has a max of the mandates. A side of their legislation is always in the process of reelection/changing.

Quebec Ministers don't resign from their minister post because they are pissed at the leader. It would achieve nothing.

[Sheilbh]

Quebec Ministers don't resign from their minister post because they are pissed at the leader. It would achieve nothing.

Do leaders ever get removed by their party between elections?

Separately reports that Patel has joined the camp of cabinet ministers telling Johnson he has to go against the camp of cabinet ministers (Dorries, Rees-Mogg) telling him to fight on. Sounds like, like Thatcher, he's calling the cabinet in one by one for them to deliver their message.