Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[viper37]

It's not about voters who passionately care about this Brexit deal. It's about the vast majority of voters who basically think there was a legitimate democratic vote (whether it went the way you wanted or not), who think that should be accepted by politicians (whether they agree with it or not) and want to move on from that debate.

Can we not be honest with each other and admit it's not that (we debated endlessly how fuzzy was the scope of the vote), it's simply that people are exhausted and because they cannot comprehend the generation-long disadvantages this decision entails, just want to stop hearing about it?

That probably characterize a majority of the population on the majority of political issues.

[Sheilbh]

It's an issue I've mentioned here - and I've heard second hand stories about this. But really glad Esther Webber (who has covered so many issues around culture, "Pestminster" and sexual misconduct over the years) has written this piece:

The hidden side of Pestminster
Sexual harassment of women in Westminster has been in the headlines for years. Now gay men are speaking out too.
By Esther Webber
July 5, 2022 4:01 am

LONDON — "I just had to shrug it off, essentially, and know that I would not speak to that MP again."

George, a Conservative Party activist in his 20s, is recalling an encounter last year with a prominent Tory MP who had suggested meeting for a drink — and then "went on to make intimations of potential sexual attraction between us."

While the encounter was not aggressive, George — not his real name — was left feeling "uncomfortable," and believes that were he to positively interact with the MP again it would be interpreted as a green light for a sexual relationship.

His experience is part of a widely known but seldom discussed dynamic at Westminster, in which a small number of male gay MPs, peers and senior parliamentary managers wield an uncomfortable degree of power over younger male employees, often gay themselves.

The trend is rarely talked about, in part because to even raise such a sensitive issue risks playing into an age-old — and grossly offensive — homophobic stereotype that equates homosexuality with predatory behavior.

But the recent string of sexual misconduct allegations against MPs — several, such as those made against former deputy chief whip Chris Pincher last week, involving claims of sexual assault by men against men — have confirmed what some parliamentary staffers have long warned: that young women aren't the only group in Westminster at risk of sexual harassment.

The dynamic

Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) representation in the U.K. Parliament has improved significantly over the past two decades.

A University of Carolina study in 2015 found there were more openly gay MPs in Britain than anywhere else in the world. Since then the number of LGBT politicians in the Commons has only increased, a fact widely celebrated by those working there. PinkNews put the number at 56 — out of 650 MPs — in 2020.

There is no question that the working practices of the vast majority of these MPs are wholly unremarkable, most acting with kindness and decency towards their employees.

But it is also true that a "whisper network" of private warnings exists in parallel among male parliamentary staff — just as it does among women — about certain MPs to stay away from in taxis, elevators and elsewhere.

Those in the upper echelons of power are aware of the issue. A Cabinet minister said: "There's a real problem in Westminster in general — not just in the Conservative Party — around the gay scene. It's a lot of alcohol and young gay researchers either flirting with or being subject to predatory advances by senior gay men."

It is well known within staff circles that sexuality can be a decisive factor in the hiring choices of a particular handful of gay MPs, who tend to employ exclusively young gay men.

A former employee of the disgraced ex-MP Imran Ahmad Khan said there was a high turnover of young men in his office, often still in their teens or just graduated from university. One current MP has employed 18 young men for short stints in his office since 2017, according to staff registers, while at least two other MPs are known for similar track records.

This doesn't break any rules, but multiple current and former staffers say such practices can contribute to an unhealthy working environment.

"If you have someone that maybe takes your fancy because they look good, there's no procedure to [ensure] properly structured interviews and proper recruitment processes," says one gay male activist who previously worked for an MP.

He described a "gay Tory clique" in which younger aides' lives revolve almost entirely around gay MPs and other staffers working in similar offices.

"All staffers have to follow their MPs around, but this is like they are living and breathing their lives," he said. "And they are just counting down to Thursdays when everyone gets pissed and goes to 'Players'" — a reference to a popular late-night drinking den close to Westminster.

Drinking heavily is a "prerequisite" to being part of this scene, said George, the first activist quoted above.

As described by these former staffers, such relationships can be mutually beneficial: the MP enjoys having a young "entourage," while the employees are gaining access to exclusive spaces and making useful contacts.

But, as they point out, the dynamic builds a deeper layer of loyalty which can become problematic if the employee feels they can't say no to certain requests or expectations — whether it's spending all hours at work, being subjected to inappropriate behavior, or turning a blind eye when it happens to others.

The Cabinet minister quoted earlier said: "It becomes self-fulfilling. It attracts young gay men to be spads [special advisers] who then aspire to become members of parliament and then you've baked this [behavior] into the Westminster bubble for the next 10 years."

Dark side of Westminster

Within the small subdivision of MPs' and peers' offices where such scenarios play out, most members of staff talk of an "unhealthy" or "uncomfortable" atmosphere rather than anything dangerous or illegal.

But a much smaller number of cases exist where MPs stand directly accused — though not publicly — of sexual misconduct.

One parliamentary worker says they witnessed a young, male aide being pushed against a wall and his groin fondled by a long-serving MP. The aide resigned soon afterwards, choosing to quit politics rather than make a complaint.

A former MP related how a serving MP from a different party had tried to touch him inappropriately in a taxi, when drunk. The ex-MP did not feel the incident worthy of a formal complaint, but admitted he worried how a more junior colleague might cope in the same situation.

And a former parliamentary official said another Tory MP was "incredibly inappropriate" towards a colleague, "touching him and outrageously drunk." A member of House staff witnessed the incident and asked if he wanted to file a complaint, but the official decided that to do so would be "career suicide."

Changing times

Older gay politicians attest that, because homosexuality was once taboo, male victims of assault would in the past have been likely to keep quiet.

There are signs this is changing. Not only are gay victims making formal complaints, as in the case of Rob Roberts, who was permanently suspended from the Conservative Party after making repeated and unwanted sexual advances toward a male former member of staff in 2021.

Victims are receiving more support from across the parliamentary community, and just as importantly, they are getting organized.

The recently-formed Conservative Staffers for Change wrote to Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party Headquarters in May to urge them to stop treating claims of sexual abuse and harassment as "mere gossip."

While the letter was not only addressing abusive behavior toward men, the group did confirm that Pincher had been part of the reason they wrote the letter, based on the testimony of men who had raised concerns about his alleged conduct.

A special committee, known as a Speaker's Conference, has now been launched to review employment practices in parliament, although MPs are privately skeptical their colleagues would agree to give up the control they current exercise over their offices.

A genuine problem, according to one parliamentary official with knowledge of the process, is finding MPs to sit on the committee who are utterly free from any question of bad behavior towards staff.

One Conservative activist, who spent weeks trying to get the party to take the accusations against Rob Roberts seriously, was in despair at the allegations which have come to light about Pincher.

"What a joke of a government," he said via text message. "Have they learned nothing? It's as if they don't really care."

Whether it's men or women on the receiving end, it's a concern raised by too many parliamentary staffers still waiting for a long-promised "zero tolerance" approach to sexual harassment.

Additional reporting by Emilio Casalicchio.

I saw Kate Maltby (journalist who made allegations of inappropriate behaviour by Damian Green, who is still an MP and was, at the time, May's Deputy PM) note there may be a psychological/generational angle here of a lot of Tory MPs from an older generation who spent a lot of time in the closet basically viewing young open gay men as sexually available. I can sort of see it - I've not experienced that from anyone more senior than me but have definitely had closeted men (or just very bad straights) behave really inappropriately towards me and I think that's part of it. There is a particular subculture in Westminster and abuse of power - but I think there's also, especialy in the Tory party, something about the psychological impact of the closet.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally it feels pretty possible this scandal will cause another leadership challenge for Johnson. I still think it's more likely than not the Tories get rid of him before their next conference - but there's journalists (who are close to Johnson loyalists) talking about him being gone before the summer recess, which is in about two weeks.

Separately reports that Durham Police are now consulting with the CPS on whether or not to fine Keir Starmer (and Angela Rayner) who have said they will stand down if they are fined.

[Tamas]

The trend is rarely talked about, in part because to even raise such a sensitive issue risks playing into an age-old — and grossly offensive — homophobic stereotype that equates homosexuality with predatory behavior.

Uhm, my bet it's more to do with destroying one's career chances was a bigger concern than spreading negative stereotypes.

[Sheilbh]

Uhm, my bet it's more to do with destroying one's career chances was a bigger concern than spreading negative stereotypes.

Maybe - I read that line as being about the media trying to report this to be honest, including how she is approaching this piece. But I think people don't want to appear homophobic and there are, I think, challenges in that.

I personally get it because I would want to be very careful in how I talked about a situation like this because there is a history of stereotyping and homophobia about gay men as predators. I'd want to try and make my points as clearly as possible without falling into that trap - and I'd want to flag it so people know I'm aware and that's what I'm tring to avoid. I think there's an element of that from the reporters perspective here - that what she is reporting is not homophobic gossip but a serious issue.

Edit: I think that fear's definitely part of why people don't come forward - piece by Alexander Brown of the Scotsman which he's been sharing again about his experience. I think the fact it's also an issue in the media is part of the reason a lot of the media don't like talking about it:

The response to sexual harassment allegations reminds me why I kept quiet - Alexander Brown
I was at Tory conference 2018, and it happened at a party.
By Alexander Brown
Sunday, 28th November 2021, 4:55 am

There with a tabloid, I was euphoric to have made it to the event as a whole, let alone the drinks.

I spoke to MPs, journalists I recognised from television, and faces from a political world I was desperate to be a part of.

Later in the evening I was introduced to a man considerably larger than me, who worked in the media.

Leaning in close to introduce himself over the sound of the music, we spoke for a matter of minutes about the conference, our careers, and the party.

Then in a blur one hand pulled my waist towards him while at the same time the other wrapped tightly around my throat.

Moving to closer to my neck, he whispered "you are too young for me, but I'm going to go home and make myself cum thinking about you".

His friends laughed, and I fled back to my hotel to stare at the ceiling.

I wanted to tell someone, anyone, but to what end? Nothing really had happened, maybe it was a joke, and I should relax.

Even if it wasn't, what value were my complaints in a room I felt like an imposter in?

The year after I arrived at a dinner, only to see him smile and introduce himself to me once again.

It was the first time a man touched me without asking, and the fear of his hands on my throat still lingered. For him it was forgotten or ignored.

Naturally our seats were next to each other, and he told me how I saw things the way others didn't, and he'd love to help my career. I turned nervously as his hand touched my thigh.

I told colleagues who urged me to report him, as if my word against his had any weight, or there could be any real repercussions.

These are not isolated incidents, but the behaviour of those who know they can get away with it.

In parliament I have had men with wikipedia pages grope me, tell me how hot I am during meetings, or joke about masturbating over my photographs.

I can only laugh or pull back, knowing it's just one person's word against another. I was told not to be off, and think about how useful they could be in future.

Last week Caroline Nokes claimed the Prime Minister's father, Stanley Johnson groped her in 2003, while the New Statesman journalist Ailbhe Rea accused him of doing so at Tory conference in 2019.

Since then some Tory MPs have blanked Ms Nokes, journalists at a sympathetic organisation tried to go through her sexual history, and a television presenter tweeted a defence of Mr Johnson seemingly deciding his being her friend trumped the claims of those accusing him.

I was scared of sharing what happened, and parliament remains somewhere where people still put the party before what is right.

Even now I cannot name them, worried what it would mean for me, or if I might see them in the corridor or at an event.

Until the response moves past defending political allies, men and women will continue to stay silent on their own stories.
Alexander Brown is a columnist with Scotland on Sunday and Westminster Correspondent for The Scotsman

[Sheilbh]

It was already febrile - but Johnson's losing ministers now. I suspect things will start moving very quickly.

Sajid Javid has resigned as Health Secretary. Looks like a fairly damaging resignation letter now.

I suspect others will follow quickly.

Edit: Basically this is the end for Johnson.

Edit: Some of the lines:

So it is with enormous regret that I must tell you that I can no longer, in good conscience, continue serving in this Government. I am instinctively a team player but the British people also rightly expect integrity from their Government.

The tone you set as a leader, and the values you represent, reflect on your colleagues, your party and ultimately the country. Conservatives at their best are seen as hard-headed decision-makers, guided by strong values. We may not have always been popular, but we have been competent in acting in the national interest. Sadly, in the current circumstances the public are concluding that we are now neither. The vote of confidence last month showed that a large number of our colleagues agree. It was a moment for humility, grip and new direction. I regret to say, however, that it is clear to me that this situation will not change under your leadership - and you have therefore lost my confidence too.
[...]
I served you loyally and as a friend, but we all serve the country first. When made to choose between those loyalties there can only be one answer.

Of course being cynical I think at this point it probably helps someone's leadership ambitions more if they're first to go than last off a sinking ship. But...

[Sheilbh]

Sunak has also resigned - going to move very fast now.

Johnson might even have to announce he's resigning tonight or tomorrow - can't see how he can carry on without a party chairman, Chancellor or Health Secretary (assuming no new resignations).

And the rebels will now have leaders.

[Josquius]

Surprising if this finally breaks bj after all the stuff directly Johnsons fault he weathered.

[Jacob]

That seems like some real momentum, yeah.

And the immediate precipitating cause was... the revelations of sexual harassment?

[The Minsky Moment]

Sajid Javid has resigned as Health Secretary.

Edit: Some of the lines:

. .. Conservatives at their best are seen as hard-headed decision-makers, guided by strong values. We may not have always been popular, but we have been competent in acting in the national interest. .

Was he out of the country when May was PM?

[Sheilbh]

And the immediate precipitating cause was... the revelations of sexual harassment?

More Johnson/Number 10 lying about what he knew. A bit like partygate - which he never recovered from.

Over the course of the weekend and the last couple of days it went from "had no knowledge of these allegations" to "I was orally briefed on specific complaints that were upheld and made a mistake in appointing him" and not denying that he nicknamed him "Pincher by name, pincher by nature".

It was really striking over the weekend that even cabinet ministers doing the press round were not just taking the line. They were prefacing everything with "I have been told by Number 10". Then today there was a junior minister doing interviews saying he had specifically asked and receieved "categoric assurances from Number 10" that Johnson wasn't aware of "specific allegations".

Sunak fairly hilariously trying to position this as a heroic, risky gamble rather than a fairly opportunistic (letter no. 2) jump to be swiftly followed by a leadership pitch:

Rishi Sunak
@RishiSunak
The public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously.

I recognise this may be my last ministerial job, but I believe these standards are worth fighting for and that is why I am resigning.

Looks like the press are now trying to confirm with the rest of the cabinet who's next.

Edit: Again if I was being cynical I'd note that Sunak's resignation letter doesn't even set out why he's resigned - it's basiclly just a leadership pitch. He's gone pretty early without having to be first and two of his main competitors (Truss and Wallace) given their jobs and situation in Ukraine are less likely to feel able to resign so may be lashed to the Titanic (though I think Wallace would win if he went for it).

Edit: And worth noting just how bad Johnson's numbers are - he's got the lowest recorded approval rating of any PM and is roughly at Jeremy Corbyn levels of unpopularity. It's not even like there's part of the electorate that like him any more. From Survation's Chief Exec yesterday on their numbers:

Having turned net negative even among the 65+ (-9%) & Leave voters (-5%), there's only one demographic or political group in tonight's poll left with a + net approval rating for Boris Johnson & that's past Conservative voters (+10). A hefty 40% of CON 2019s are now unfavourable.

[Sheilbh]

Sounds, unsurprisingly, like Johnson is going to try and brazen it out - apparently Nadine Dorries and the Chief Whip have gone into Downing Street, which feels very much like getting people in the bunker.

But also rumours of further cabinet resignations - Zahawi and Gove in particular. Plus letters of no confidence still going in and while the rules say they can't have another vote, they can always change the rules. It feels pretty likely this is going to be resolved in the coming days.

The counter argument is that people kept resigning from Gordon Brown's cabinet and he just kept replacing them with other, less competent ministers. But I just don't think the Tories are going to let Johnson drift like that for the next 18 months/two years.

Edit: And in very funny news Lord Frost - who is entirely a creation of Johnson - is calling for him to stand down

Edit: And reports that Conservative party HQ has been getting in touch with local associations and asking them to make sure their membership records are up to date. Johnson might try to hang on but it feels like things beyond his control are moving now.

[Jacob]

I hope for the best for Britain in this trying time.

[Grey Fox]

Sounds like Zelenskyy is about to get a visit &, maybe, jet fighters!

[Sheilbh]

Sounds like Zelenskyy is about to get a visit &, maybe, jet fighters!

Yes. Already been doing the rounds:

John O'Farrell
@mrjohnofarrell
"The thing is Boris, you have visited quite a few times already..."

It is slightly mad - I was reading Oliver Carroll on this just yesterday who's a Guardian reporter about how hugely popular Johnson is in Ukraine. He is often referred to as Johnsonyuk, there's a song about him doing the rounds on social media, he was yesterday given honorary citizenship of Odessa and just this evening Carroll had a photo of someone doing a street art painting of Johnson in Kyiv

It's crazy. It is the one thing he got really right - there is huge public support for him and in Ukraine he is incredibly popular. But ultimately it's not enough to save him.

Edit: Amazing from Johnson's trade envoy - we can only assume he's resigning as this is what he posted on Twitter with no comment


Edit: And Bim Afolami, deputy Conservative Party Chair has resigned - also lots of MPs who voted for Johnson (literally less than month ago) saying they now have no confidence. I think they're trying to force more of the cabinet to take a stand and if not signal that they will move against him after the 1922 Executive election. Afolami's resignation live on air - better than a letter:
https://twitter.com/TheNewsDesk/status/1544388951435247625?s=20&t=82j-O1aCUE1BdcJzCKeZiA