Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Amazing - another minister I've never heard of has just resigned calling for Johnson to go.

I can only assume she's not read the news

Edit: Although my favourite contribution was this morning from the Tory MP for Bolton North East:

Mark Logan MP
@Mark_Logan_MP
You're taking the piss now. #go

[Tamas]

Liz Truss is called a frontrunner?! We are in for a rough ride aren't we?

[Syt]

 

[Sheilbh]

Truss has always been a frontrunner for next leader - not a huge surprise.

Looking at the odds it seems like Sunak is still the favourite - with Penny Mordaunt, Sajid Javid, Ben Wallace and Truss all clumped.

But who knows I've seen reports of MPs who were going to back Mordaunt who are very unhappy she didn't resign. I feel like Wallace would get it if he ran. If not I think it'll come down to Mordaunt v Javid or Sunak.

I also think there's a possibility the MPs don't let this go to the membership. I wouldn't be suprised if we get to the final two or three candidates and they do a deal.

Edit: And YouGov's already done a snap poll of Tory members which just reinforces that, as a party, they basically like winning and holding power above anything else:


And in head-to-heads, Wallace smashes everyone:

[Josquius]

Hopefully the unelected PM fallacy plays against them come election time.

[garbon]

What is Mordaunt's deal? I feel like I only hear her name when it is time to discuss potential candidates but then she also hasn't tried to run?

[Sheilbh]

What is Mordaunt's deal? I feel like I only hear her name when it is time to discuss potential candidates but then she also hasn't tried to run?

She's been overlooked under Johnson - I assume some personal petty issue going on, or possibly just because she backed Hunt. So she's been a junior minister under him but was in the cabinet under May and seen as credible. Because she's a junior minister she's not as badly tainted as cabinet ministers under Johnson - but that might have changed given that she didn't resign.

In terms of positioning I think she is interesting - she's socially liberal/on the modernising side and backed Leave so straddles a few factions in the party. Apparently she worked for David Willetts' failed leadership campaign in 2005 and he was a centrist moderniser (and nicknamed "two brains", which he thinks hurt him with the Tories, because he was smart and had lots of policy ideas). She also wrote a book (which I've not read) on post-Brexit ideas which had positive reviews/comments from Tony Blair, Boris Johnson, Richard Branson and Elton John which is a curious mix. And she's a naval reservist which I think goes down well with Tory MPs/members.

I think she's the best option if they decide they want someone who has relatively clean hands after Johnson - certainly more than Hunt or Tughendat. She's not been on the backbenches but she's not been in the cabinet and is not associated with Johnson (as I say the common view is she's been deliberately overlooked by Johnson). I also could be totally wrong but the vibe I get off her is that if it goes to the membership and she makes it that far, they will absolutely love her.

[garbon]

Thanks!

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally really great quick explainer of the immediate cause of this by Lewis Goodall on Newsnight:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1544452557904420871?s=20&t=UmsvUyLg_SHUjZ0fSU2_dQ

The lectern's out for his statement.

Edit: Here we go

[Sheilbh]

Dreadful speech - called the decision to oust him "eccentric" and motivated by "herd instinct" in the Tory party.

I think it's very unlikely they let him hang on as a caretaker now.

Edit: And worth pointing out it was very much not an eccentricity of the parliamentary Tory party:


Edit: Also love the Newsnight outro last night:
https://twitter.com/tomhourigan/status/1544810671191228416?s=21&t=X4P61xwR85pvpYFgLYTdWQ

[mongers]

Good riddance to the deluded bullshitter.

[alfred russel]

I don't understand why Boris resigned rather than organize a mob to retake the commons and remain as prime minister. The UK and your strange ways.

[Valmy]

I don't understand why Boris resigned rather than organize a mob to retake the commons and remain as prime minister. The UK and your strange ways.

They just don't understand conservatism in Britain.

[Sheilbh]

Of course - Mirror reporting that one of the reasons Johnson wants to stay as caretaker is to have a big wedding party at the grace-and-favour PM's country house (they were married during the pandemic):

Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
EXCL: Boris Johnson and wife Carrie are planning big wedding bash at Chequers within weeks - with sources saying it's part of reason he wants to stay as caretaker.
Tory source: "It beggars belief that even after all the criticism Johnson has faced regarding integrity and probity, one of the reasons he is staying is to have his wedding party at Chequers. The Johnsons should do the decent thing and find a different venue."
PM's allies deny wedding party is factor in desire to stay on as caretaker Tory leader. Spox: "The PM has a strong sense of duty and will continue to serve his country until a new leader is in place solely to continue his obligation to the public".

Still feeling it's very likely the Tories force him out far sooner than this because they do not want a summer of stories like this.

Edit: And, incidentally, Raab and Gove have both said they won't run for the leadership so there are two interim PM candidates available.

Separately, and to everyone's relief, Matt Hancock has announced he won't run for the leadership. I have no idea who asked him, or why.

[crazy canuck]

Does Dorsey win his bet if Boris stays on as PM while waiting for the new leader to be elected?