Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Barrister]

Yeah that was awesome.

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah.

I'd say fast and furious never rose above the level of Republican talking point.  I.e. no traction with Democrats or swing voters.  That's my impression.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah that was awesome.

Also enjoyed reporters shouting questions at the cat: "are you resigning Larry?"

[garbon]

You're thinking fast and furious?

Yeah.

Separately with all of this happening in Westminster it is worth noting that the SNP have a parallel scandal. And it's another example of the SNP doing the exact same thing as the Tories, if not worse, but facing no consequences because the national media don't care about Scotland.

Their chief whip groped a young man who works for the party in a bar (he was also groped by another SNP MP in a separate incident). The party leader then arranged a meeting between whip and the victim, without informing him - so the guy who'd been groped went to a meeting that he thought was one on one to find his attacker in the room.

They've re-instated the chief whip and the leader was recorded saying that they all need to rally around him because it's been awful for him. Today it's been revealed that the SNP have now threatened the victim (a party staffer) with misconduct action and have locked him from his work email after he sent an email to MPs/staff criticisng the party response.

I just wish this story got some of the attention and people who are rightly outraged by the Pincher story noticed it because it's only being covered by the Scottish press (except for the National, obviously).

BBC reporter did ask about the hypocrisy to Ian Blackford crowing on how Boris needed to go. Though not that latest bit on SNP threatening the accuser.

[Sheilbh]

Never would have predicted - Suella Braverman has called for Johnson to go on live TV:
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1544803813068099590?s=20&t=H5nPamFkDBHiS6GnIN-51w

Presumably that's a resignation. I think we're over 45 now - today one cabinet resignation, Gove's firing and now Braverman.

Edit: Separately according to the Times Nadhim Zahawi had apparently been working with close allies of Lynton Crosby (the PM's electoral strategist ) on a leadership bid. They'd even prepared a resignation letter to go in yesterday - focused on trust.

Can't see how any of that works now - I think there was a bit of goodwill for Zahawi but it all feels a bit Miliband with a banana. And if he stays after the Gove firing and all the resignations he'll be very tainted. Still think last night's decision to become Chancellor was baffling.

Edit: And - obviously unreliable and being briefed but this is bad

Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
EXC: The Tory whips office has calculated Boris Johnson would get the backing of just 65 Tory MPs in a second confidence vote.

That's out of almost 360 Tory MPs - so support from less than a fifth. Boris allies have been discussing that today. More in @Telegraph
 tomorrow.

Edit: Just seen that Braverman said she wasn't resigning, but might get fired and launched her leadership campaign - astonishing today for there to be someone more deluded than Johnson in politics

[Richard Hakluyt]

Currently camping in Germany but following the events with great amusement 

Last time I was abroad the May government fell. Is a pattern developing 

[garbon]

[Sheilbh]

Finally - Pippa Crerar reporting from two Number 10 sources that Johnson is resigning. Letter/statement being worked on now.

[garbon]

Boris Johnson has agreed to resign, but wants to stay on as PM until new Tory leader elected by autumn
Boris Johnson has agreed to resign, the BBC's Chris Mason reports. He says he wants a new Tory leader to be in place by the party conference. He wants to stay on as PM until then.

[Sheilbh]

Although it's not in his hands - I think it's the 1922 that sets the timeline for a leadership election.

And it makes sense to have it over the summer recess, maybe announce the new leader at Tory party conference.

[Admiral Yi]

What's the deal with "1922?"

[HVC]

Although it's not in his hands - I think it's the 1922 that sets the timeline for a leadership election.

And it makes sense to have it over the summer recess, maybe announce the new leader at Tory party conference.

That doesn't give him enough time to unresign

[Sheilbh]

What's the deal with "1922?"

It's the committee/caucus of the parliamentary Tory Party - so all of the MPs. They are in Tory terms the traditional "men in grey suits" who tell a leader when their time is up.

Letters calling for a vote in no confidence go to the chair of the 1922 so he's the only person who knows how close a leader is but will also take lots of soundings, especially among backbenchers.

I think it's named after - or was formed - to force the Tory leadership to leave the coalition with Lloyd-George in 1922 and trigger an election (which they won).

That doesn't give him enough time to unresign

He doesn't get a say any more. There's already reports from journalists with good Tory sources that ministers and senior backbenchers want Johnson out immediately and they'll have a caretakere PM.

Last minute's meetings with the cabinet and the chair of the 1922 was the Tories trying to get rid of Johnson in the least disruptive way possible for the party and give him a way out with a bit of dignity. He rejected that, fired Gove and I think last night was a really bad night for the Tory party - we'll see but I wouldn't be surprised if they forced him out now.

Edit: Incidentally - where the chart of ministerial resignations ended up

[Threviel]

To 0945 

[Sheilbh]

Also on a purely practical level I can't see how a caretaker government with Johnson works. That happens when you still have a cabinet/shadow cabinet and stay in office on an interim basis until there's been a leadership election.

But there's entire departments with no ministers left - can't see the resignees just walking back into their old roles for a few awkward months. I just don't see how an interim Johnson ministry would work.