Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Ken Baker, Tory grandee (various jobs under Thatcher and Major - education, party chai, home office) not holding back: "the Conservative Party made him and now the Conservative Party will rightly destroy him"

[HVC]

It's odd that after all the shit his waded through its someone else's scandal that sunk him.

[Zanza]

I hope they elect someone entertaining like Rees-Mogg, Patel or Raab as caretaker until a new leader is chosen among the serious candidates. 

[HVC]

They should just take whose most senior now after all the resignations. That'd be like the janitor or something now

[Tamas]

Hate to burst your bubble but current position is that Johnson is staying until the undetermined time that a successor is chosen. I have zero doubts he'll try to stay on even after that.

[Sheilbh]

Hate to burst your bubble but current position is that Johnson is staying until the undetermined time that a successor is chosen. I have zero doubts he'll try to stay on even after that.

That is reasonably standard when a PM resigns - it happened with Cameron and with May. They stay as PM until the new leader is elected. I'm not sure how much the Tories will tolerate that especially if stories about parties keep dropping or the Lebedev revelations explode (which I suspect they will). Similarly if he keeps moaning about the "parliamentary Conservative party" turning on him I imagine they'll dispatch him pretty quickly with an interim instead.

Practically it doesn't matter - he's gone. Political reality is ruthless and power will drain from him to all of the other contenders. There's not going to be MPs hanging around looking for a job (apparently he's still struggling to fill ministerial roles even on an interim basis), no-one's going to care what he says is a "priority", no-one is going to expend a single gram of their political capital on Johnson. All the little bits of oil that keep a system going will disappear, because there's no benefit in helping a soon to be ex-PM. Those MPs, the civil service's thoughts etc will all turn to his successor and be focused on the leadership contest.

On timing I think the 1922 have said they want the whittling down by MPs to be done by 21 July, followed by a six week campaign (which means AR might lose his bet by one day ). Although I wouldn't be surprised if this one ends up with a deal between candidates before it gets to the membership.

[Barrister]

Hate to burst your bubble but current position is that Johnson is staying until the undetermined time that a successor is chosen. I have zero doubts he'll try to stay on even after that.

I read that has to do with the fact he was going to have a wedding reception on government property soon (he got married in a simple service during Covid) and so wants to hang on for that reason.

[Sheilbh]

It's odd that after all the shit his waded through its someone else's scandal that sunk him.

That's sort of been true through out - with Paterson, partygate and Pincher. Even on partygate the worst, most outrageous incidents that caught public opinion were when Johnson wasn't in Downing Street - the events he attended all sound pretty tame.

But it's not the scandal - it's been the lies, the integrity issues and the cover-ups in each case. Not least because for Tory MPs they are defending position that they're not sure will hold for even a day before Downing Street change the story. It's not this scandal. It's the pattern. As Jacob Levy put it - the straw that breaks the camel's back isn't necessarily the heaviest, it's just the last. It creates the impression that people who tolerated a, b and c suddenly treat z as vastly the most important thing - but it's not, it's because of a, b and c that z matters.

[alfred russel]

Does Dorsey win his bet if Boris stays on as PM while waiting for the new leader to be elected?

Nope I lose...the timeframe is through the end of August.

I did update the bet to have at risk $306 to win a profit of $183. The odds have now moved so he is now favored to remain PM through August.

[Sheilbh]

And on Johnson this is the statement from Number 10 - he may try to do everything he may try to stay on but this is the clear line from the cabinet and also, I imagine, the civil service. He is PM, but effectively he has no mandate any more:

The prime minister opened cabinet by welcoming those returning or joining for the first time.

He said his priority would now be to continue delivering on manifesto pledges and making sure the government is on the side of the public, on the cost of energy, transport and housing and all else that matters to them.

He made clear the government would not seek to implement new policies or make major changes of direction, rather it would focus on delivering the agenda on which the government was elected.

He said major fiscal decisions should be left for the next prime minister.

[The Larch]

So, what did he exactly resign from? The PM spot and/or the Conservative Party leader spot?

[Sheilbh]

Nothing. It's like Johnson after the Brexit referendum (June but left office in July and resigned as an MP) or May's resignation (in May but she only left office in July). I think even Blair announced is resignation and then there was time for a leadership election but the Brownites managed to avoid anyone else getting nominated He's announced he's resigning and will leave office once there's a successor.

The timing of that is up to the Tory party (I think the 1922 committee) - leadership contests normally take 6-8 weeks. I think their current plan is to do the round among MPs by 21 July (when the summer recess starts) and then have 6 week campaign for the membership. There's an argument for doing it quickly but if I was a Tory I'd want them to take their time.

[FunkMonk]

This all feels a little Death of Stalin-ish 

[The Larch]

Nothing. It's like Johnson after the Brexit referendum (June but left office in July and resigned as an MP) or May's resignation (in May but she only left office in July). I think even Blair announced is resignation and then there was time for a leadership election but the Brownites managed to avoid anyone else getting nominated He's announced he's resigning and will leave office once there's a successor.

The timing of that is up to the Tory party (I think the 1922 committee) - leadership contests normally take 6-8 weeks. I think their current plan is to do the round among MPs by 21 July (when the summer recess starts) and then have 6 week campaign for the membership. There's an argument for doing it quickly but if I was a Tory I'd want them to take their time.

So he's basically declared himself to be a lame duck PM, then?

[Sheilbh]

This all feels a little Death of Stalin-ish 

Well the writer behind that did The Thick of It and In the Loop, so it is

There's been a lot of the Thick of It in the last few days.