Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

Although because Britain - apparently in the middle of all the drama - one MP used their question to try and get the government to block planning permission for new homes in their constituency

I wonder how many decades away we are from the next peasant rebellion. When the growing population of renters stuck in their fate by legal restrictions has enough, it won't be pretty.

[crazy canuck]

I was entirely unaware of the "gay men are sexual predators" stereotype.

Back in the day it was prevalent and used in public policy debates regarding whether gay men could be trusted to be with minors, as teachers, adoptive parents, etc.

Yi is old enough to remember that and I am surprised he is making the argument that there is an equivalent stereotype for straight men.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder how many decades away we are from the next peasant rebellion. When the growing population of renters stuck in their fate by legal restrictions has enough, it won't be pretty.

I've said before but I think it's like the unions in the 60s and 70s - either there'll be broad and maybe moderate reform now, or radical reform. Part of the issue though is that only about 20% are in private rented. I believe it's the single biggest predictor of someone likely to vote Labour - and is even stronger than education or age.

Most people own their own homes and it's their biggest asset. But there is majority support for increasing supply even if it means house prices fall and even among homeowners - I think people get that the system doesn't work. But I think that's in theory and at a national level, not for actual houses being built in your area. And, of course, even the left people who support housing in theory are likely to oppose it in practice on other grounds: not enough council housing, not enough affordable housing, environmental impact etc.

It's all just very infuriating.

[Tamas]

I wonder how many decades away we are from the next peasant rebellion. When the growing population of renters stuck in their fate by legal restrictions has enough, it won't be pretty.

I've said before but I think it's like the unions in the 60s and 70s - either there'll be broad and maybe moderate reform now, or radical reform. Part of the issue though is that only about 20% are in private rented. I believe it's the single biggest predictor of someone likely to vote Labour - and is even stronger than education or age.

Most people own their own homes and it's their biggest asset. But there is majority support for increasing supply even if it means house prices fall and even among homeowners - I think people get that the system doesn't work. But I think that's in theory and at a national level, not for actual houses being built in your area. And, of course, even the left people who support housing in theory are likely to oppose it in practice on other grounds: not enough council housing, not enough affordable housing, environmental impact etc.

It's all just very infuriating.

It feels like radical reform will be unavoidable, although I am not really expecting it to happen in my lifetime. What you outlined is probably why the property price bubble is being upheld at all cost. This system around stagnation in supply cannot be upheld if the majority is not financially invested into maintaining it. When that dam breaks it will likely break hard, especially since any attempts to ease the pressure are heavily opposed.

[Sheilbh]

I think we're now up to around 27-28 resignations (including a coordinated 5 minister resignation by junior ministers who are seen as possible rising stars for the future).

Michael Gove and the Chief Whip have reportedly told Johnson he must go.

In twenty minutes Johnson is due to give evidence to the Liaison Committee for a few hours. Interesting to see if he keeps trying to push on and that happens while (on current pace) there'd be about 5-6 resignations while he's speaking

Edit: The latest update to that chart:



Edit: And reports the 1922 Committee has the votes to change the rules this afternoon (they don't need to wait for the new executive) and call another vote of no confidence tonight.

For all my issues with Johnson there is some pleasure in seeing him choose the least dignified way possible to leave office.

[crazy canuck]

I wonder how many decades away we are from the next peasant rebellion. When the growing population of renters stuck in their fate by legal restrictions has enough, it won't be pretty.

I've said before but I think it's like the unions in the 60s and 70s - either there'll be broad and maybe moderate reform now, or radical reform. Part of the issue though is that only about 20% are in private rented. I believe it's the single biggest predictor of someone likely to vote Labour - and is even stronger than education or age.

Most people own their own homes and it's their biggest asset. But there is majority support for increasing supply even if it means house prices fall and even among homeowners - I think people get that the system doesn't work. But I think that's in theory and at a national level, not for actual houses being built in your area. And, of course, even the left people who support housing in theory are likely to oppose it in practice on other grounds: not enough council housing, not enough affordable housing, environmental impact etc.

It's all just very infuriating.

Here there has been acceptance across the political spectrum of the need for increased supply in the form of multi family building developments combined with social housing and public amenities.  Whole neighbourhoods have been transformed on this model of development.  But we have much more to do.

[garbon]

If Boris manages to hold on a little longer he can then be able to claim he was a PM longer than Chamberlain (at least according to wiki).

[Sheilbh]

Here there has been acceptance across the political spectrum of the need for increased supply in the form of multi family building developments combined with social housing and public amenities.  Whole neighbourhoods have been transformed on this model of development.  But we have much more to do.

Yeah. I think this is a difference between North American and UK NIMBYS from when I see both on Twitter.

The whole multi-family v single residence is not really a big divide here. Areas don't normally have restrictions on stuff like that here anyway the issue isn't normally zoning restrictions (we don't really have zoning). There are targets for affordable and social housing which are set by local authorities - London's is generally 35% on any new development. That's not always met but I think it's often part of a negotiation with the council - you can reduce your affordable housing commitment if you pay for a new health centre/sports centre or some other bit of the public realm.

The divide here is that all parties are committed to building more housing as a natioinal policy, but oppose attempts to actually build new housing at a local level. It's sort of Augustinian housing policy: build more houses, but not here. The reasons for opposition vary a little bit by party but it's a big issue.

So even where I live there is a big development planned and the local (Green and Lib Dem) campaign against is that even though it meets the 35% target not enough of the housing are for social rent, too many are shared ownership which is not "truly affordable". In addition the environmental impact which basically suggests we can't build if we have a net zero target, it's out of character with the local area and will lead to gentrification and "social cleansing".

Edit: That isn't to say both aren't built - but basically in towns or villages it'll be new estates of single family dwellings. In cities/more built up towns/suburbs it'll be blocks of one sort or other.

[Sheilbh]

If Boris manages to hold on a little longer he can then be able to claim he was a PM longer than Chamberlain (at least according to wiki).

I think he's 3 days out and has to last 30 days to have outlasted Theresa May.

[Sheilbh]

Absolutely surreal that he is at the Liaison Committee - agreed at the start of the session that they'd leave "integrity issues" to the end. So instead he's being grilled on specific policy issues by Select committee chairs while all the news channels have a live ticker of resignations (up to 32 now).

Clip of key points from Javid's statement:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1544679775159128064?s=20&t=eC26QdLw9bHbKXE0n_2KGA

Meanwhile more and more backbenchers calling for him to go and a report in the Guardian that the whips can't find backbenchers willing to become ministers.

Edit: Now moving onto "integrity in politics". Question one, from a Tory chair, "how important is the truth to you, Prime Minister?" Then "can you help me with this" and going onto specific statements

Separately have to love the letters of resignation very legitimate issues with this government - that all of these people have been serving in for the last few years

[alfred russel]

How many jobs do you guys have? It seems like there are way more resignations than what i would have expected for the number of jobs for MPs.

[Sheilbh]

How many jobs do you guys have? It seems like there are way more resignations than what i would have expected for the number of jobs for MPs.

Payroll vote is massive. About 170 MPs in the current government. There's about 30 who attend cabinet - then probably about another 30 as junior ministers. Those guys actually get paid more money so literally are on the payroll.

Most of those ministers will have one or two (for the more senior ones) Parliamentary Private Secretaries who are the "bag carriers" for ministers. There's also other roles like all of the "trade envoys" Johnson has made or "special envoy" for specific issues. None of those are actually paid any extra money - but it's the first step on the ladder.

Basically if you think of all the appointments the President makes, in the UK they almost always have to be in the legislature so they can be held accountable by parliament, so they will be Lords or MPs.

Edit: It is worth noting that it's at a record high recently - not least because patronage is something that is an easy way to buy loyalty. It's normally around 100-130 (and a majority is 326 MPs) - but for obvious reasons Johnson's needed to bribe lots of ambitious backbenchers with a junior role or appointment as an "envoy" to something.

[Sheilbh]

And now reports of a delegation of cabinet ministers going to Johnson to tell him to go or they resign - including Nadhim Zahawi.

[garbon]

At the liaison committee Boris Johnson was told the some cabinet ministers were waiting for him in Downing Street, ready to tell him to quit. "So you say," he said.

[Sheilbh]

Dignity, always dignity.