Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Admiral Yi]

I'm afraid I don't follow.

Shelf's link talked about members of the media who have been hesitant to report on predatory behavior by gay British MPs out of fear of feeding a stereotype about gay men.  My question was if they do that, isn't it a double standard to report on predatory behavior by straight men, which also feeds a stereotype.

[crazy canuck]

That is a false equivalency.  There is no stereotype that straight men are rapists.  That fact that some are is a very different matter.

[Jacob]

Shelf's link talked about members of the media who have been hesitant to report on predatory behavior by gay British MPs out of fear of feeding a stereotype about gay men.  My question was if they do that, isn't it a double standard to report on predatory behavior by straight men, which also feeds a stereotype.

Ah, I see what you mean. Thank you.

[Tamas]

I was entirely unaware of the "gay men are sexual predators" stereotype.

[Syt]

[Sheilbh]

Resignations continuing - we were up to 10 last night including the Solicitor General. Then during Zahawi's first interview as Chancellor this morning there were two more junior resignations.

This feels far more organised than the June push against Johnson and the drumbeat of junior resignations reminds me of the Brown/Watson move against Blair (except, unlike Blair, there doesn't seem to be a faction desperate for Johnson to stay).

[celedhring]

I hope he solves this crisis with another quick trip to Kyiv to deliver more weapons to the Ukrainians.

[garbon]

I was entirely unaware of the "gay men are sexual predators" stereotype.

It is a common historical one. Corrupting children and all that.

[Sheilbh]

It is a common historical one. Corrupting children and all that.

Yeah. Gay men preying on/corrupting/recruiting youths, not to be trusted around children etc.

I mean it's a really extreme example and it's primarily to do with children - but just look at the "grooming" discourse on the right in America around don't say gay laws etc. It's all tapping into those tropes.

Shelf's link talked about members of the media who have been hesitant to report on predatory behavior by gay British MPs out of fear of feeding a stereotype about gay men.  My question was if they do that, isn't it a double standard to report on predatory behavior by straight men, which also feeds a stereotype.

Also I think people within Westminster reluctant to talk about it - maybe there's a double standard there. Although in the grand sweep of things I'm not sure it's that massive, given that #Metoo only happened about five years ago.

I also think the media context here matters. I think it's only recently that gay men who were victims of sexual harassment would be treated or perceived as victims by the press. Rather similar to the re-evaluation of Clinton and Lewinsky I think in the 2000s it would have been a "gay sex in parliament" story, not a "predatory men with power" story. Obviously before then it would have been even worse - I mean it's only about 20 years since the Sun did their splash on Britain being run by a "gay mafia".

It's why I'm glad Esther Webber is the person doing the reporting - she's been reporting on sexual harassment, bullying, misconduct in parliament for the last five years. She's really good and I think able to handle this story. I dread to imagine what a Daily Mail piece covering the gay side of "Pestminster" would have looked like.

Edit: Back on the current push agains Johnson, cabinet ministers traditionally are allowed to make a statement to the house on their resignation. Javid's is apparently scheduled for this afternoon (while Johnson's at the Liaison Committee). Given his letter I'd expect him to be more likely to go in on Johnson than Sunak.

[Sheilbh]

Resignations keep coming - and, significantly, Robert Halfon has called for Johnson to go.

He's seen as a leader of "working class" conservatism - he's very bread and butter. In the past he's called for Tories to make links with trade unions, campaigned on hospital parking fees etc: "not only has there been a loss of integrity, but a failure of policy... Government is not working for most people... whether it is GP services or getting a Passport... much policy delivery is a mirage."

He also added that as a backbencher he has nothing to resign from but, if he could he would. He voted for Johnson in the June VONC but has said it's now a mistake.

Separately Johnson's lost Jonathan Gullis and Lee Anderson - who are two of the most shouty, culture warrior Red Wallers. Apart from people who literally depend on his patronage, I don't know where his support in the party is anymore. I mean the cabinet is less politically aware and less dignifed than Gullis and Anderson which is a terrifying thought

[The Larch]

He also added that as a backbencher he has nothing to resign from but

Can't he resign from his MP seat? Or from the Conservative party itself? 

[Sheilbh]

But that doesn't really have much impact on Johnson as leader of the Tory party - he wouldn't be able to vote against him or for the rule changes for example.

Although there are rumours that there'll be some defections to Labour (depending on the paper there are talks with between 1-6 MPs about crossing the floor).

[The Larch]

But that doesn't really have much impact on Johnson as leader of the Tory party - he wouldn't be able to vote against him or for the rule changes for example.

Although there are rumours that there'll be some defections to Labour (depending on the paper there are talks with between 1-6 MPs about crossing the floor).

Wouldn't it make more sense to defect to the Lib Dems?

[Sheilbh]

On a cynical level you'd want to defect to whoever is at risk of winning your seat at the next election.

That works better ideologically because there has been a bit of a sorting since the Brexit referendum. So if you're a small state Cameron style conservative in a Southern seat, it would make more sense to go to the Lib Dems (and they would also likely be your main opposition locally). If you're an interventionist Red Wall MP who's representing a traditional Labour area, it would make more sene to go to Labour (again, likely your main opposition). The cynical self-interest and ideology are more likely to rhyme now.

In the case of Halfon - I can't see him as a Lib Dem, but Labour would make sense. He's a campaigning backbencher - so he's done lots of stuff promoting apprenticeships, he wants the Tories to stop demonising and start working with trade unions, he was campaigning on the cost of living in the early 2010s, he constantly rebelled on free school meals during the pandemic (without requiring Rashford to act as his conscience) and his current campaign is to get schools classified as "essential infrastructure" which would require parliamentary debate and vote to close. He also cerebral palsy and has campaigned on rights and benefits for the disabled.

Incidentally we're up to 15 resignations now - reports that the 1922 Committee are going to send a delegation to Johnson informing him that time's up and they have the votes to change the rules and kick him out. But I think the penny is dropping that he won't quit which why the resignations and backbench statements of no confidence keep coming.

Separately it's striking that a lot of Javid's team from his leadership bid in 2019 are resigning or issing statements against Johnson. Add to that Javid's statement in the Commons this afternoon and apparently doing a media round tomorrow, it all suggests that Javid's resignation is an organised leadership pitch (apparently he'd made up his mind yesterday morning). Sunak's looks a lot less coordinated.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a resignation timed either just before or during PMQs (possibly a big one because it's a great way to make a splash).

[Sheilbh]

The IfG chart on ministerial resignations - apparently they've had to move into half-hourly updates:


Also seems like PMQs is not going well. Tim Loughton (Tory - hard Brexiter, previously backed Leadsom's leadership bit) asking "are there any circumstances in which the Prime Minister would resign?"

Starmer seems to have been brutal and effective in particular at trying to turn it from a Johnson issue to a Tory party issue. His line that people volunteering to be in Johnson's cabinet now is the "charge of the lightweight brigade" is good

Although because Britain - apparently in the middle of all the drama - one MP used their question to try and get the government to block planning permission for new homes in their constituency