Languish.org

Less than 3 weeks to go, most here and many political commentators are saying Clinton has won the race, saving some tragedy overtaking her or America, what eventual victory will she have over Trump in terms of share of the vote?

I'm not asking about your opinion of the electoral college vote, that could be another poll* or even who will eventually become president, but merely by how many percentage points will Clinton's share of the vote be greater than Trumps.

Feel free to ponder situations and scenarios that explain your choice, hell speculate about the success of 3rd party candidates, but it's time to put up or shut up, now's your opportunity to call this election.

Someone like Yi will probably want to have a bet with you over you respective choices.  :P






* done by someone other than me ie a person with some in depth knowledge of the US political system.

I already bet my old man a hundred that Hillary is gonna win. So no Yi bets for me.

10%. I guess.

I'd guess as much as 8%.  Languish will bitch that it's not enough.

Quote from: derspiess on October 20, 2016, 09:04:35 PM
I'd guess as much as 8%.  Languish will bitch that it's not enough.

That's not nearly enough.

Quote from: Ed Anger on October 20, 2016, 09:01:28 PM
I already bet my old man a hundred that Hillary is gonna win. So no Yi bets for me.

10%. I guess.

In similar territory, but I don't think I'm being especially brave in suggesting nearer to 12% than 10%, say 11.2%.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 20, 2016, 09:05:19 PM

Quote from: derspiess on October 20, 2016, 09:04:35 PM
I'd guess as much as 8%.  Languish will bitch that it's not enough.

That's not nearly enough.

And there we go.

Trump will pull it out, the sea will overtake Miami, and most ominously of all, the Cubs will win the World Series.  :ph34r:

7-12% range. I voted 10%.

Could be worse though.

(https://i.imgsafe.org/9229e94379.png)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/20/1582375/-Todd-Akin-shows-how-it-could-get-much-worse-for-Trump-and-cost-Republicans-control-of-Congress (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/20/1582375/-Todd-Akin-shows-how-it-could-get-much-worse-for-Trump-and-cost-Republicans-control-of-Congress)

QuoteTodd Akin shows how it could get much worse for Trump—and cost Republicans control of Congress (http://'http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/20/1582375/-Todd-Akin-shows-how-it-could-get-much-worse-for-Trump-and-cost-Republicans-control-of-Congress')

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By Stephen Wolf (http://'http://www.dailykos.com/user/Stephen%20Wolf')
Friday Oct 21, 2016 · 4:41 AM
2016/10/21 · 04:41


Donald Trump's braggery about sexual assault (http://'http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/politics/donald-trump-women.html?_r=0') sparked immediate outcry and condemnation from Republican Party leaders, with many pulling their support. Although House Speaker Paul Ryan didn't reverse his endorsement, he said he'd stop defending Trump (http://'https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/10/10/paul-ryan-wont-defend-or-campaign-for-trump-ahead-of-election/') and told members of his caucus they were free to support or oppose the GOP's nominee as they pleased. Many wondered if Trump's meltdown would lead to a true landslide loss, but so far the polls don't quite show it—yet. He trails by 6.7 points nationally (http://'http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton-vs-johnson') in the Huffington Post Pollster average, virtually unchanged from his 6.4 percent deficit when the "Access Hollywood" tapes surfaced on Oct. 7.

Still, with a little under three weeks to go, we can't yet say whether things will get worse for Trump, since we simply have no modern precedent for a major party abandoning their nominee. However, there is one telling downballot precedent that offers many parallels: Missouri's extraordinary 2012 Senate election.

In that race, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill was unpopular with voters and faced a hostile electorate in a red state. It's easy to forget now, but she narrowly trailed (http://'http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-missouri-senate-mccaskill-vs-akin') Republican Rep. Todd Akin at the time he won the GOP primary (with McCaskill's now-legendary assistance (http://'http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/todd-akin-missouri-claire-mccaskill-2012-121262')). But soon after earning his party's nomination, Akin's campaign totally fell to pieces (http://'http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/09/upshot/akin-foley-and-trump-how-republicans-could-come-crashing-down.html?_r=0'). On Aug. 19, he infamously defended a ban on abortions that allowed for no exceptions by preposterously claiming (http://'http://www.politico.com/story/2012/08/akin-legitimate-rape-victims-dont-get-pregnant-079864') pregnancy could not result from rape. In lines that will live forever, Akin declared, "If it's legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down."

Amazingly, Akin's shocking ignorance now manages to pale in comparison to all the countless offensive things Trump has said. Akin's statement was more than outrageous enough, though, and it led his own party's leaders to call on him to drop out of the race—not out of any moral conviction, mind you, but because they quickly concluded he'd destroyed his own candidacy. But the same kind of bull-headed stubbornness that McCaskill knew would benefit her if Akin became the GOP nominee also ensured that he wouldn't step aside at the establishment's behest, and his outside financial support dried up.

As a result, many pundits immediately presumed Akin had rendered himself dead man walking, but—and this is the crucial point—the polls simply didn't show it (http://'http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-missouri-senate-mccaskill-vs-akin'). Two weeks after "legitimate rape," Akin only trailed McCaskill by 1 percent, according to the Pollster average. Even a full month later, he was behind just 3.3 percent, and on Election Day—two and a half months after his meltdown—polls "only" showed her 8.7 points ahead. You can see it all unfold in the chart below from Huffington Post:



(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.dailykos.com%2Fimages%2F315151%2Flarge%2FTodd_Akin_Polling_Chart.png%3F1476992382&hash=82dae4d882853324fb21a50c3efd90f0792dbd4d)
Yet McCaskill ultimately prevailed in a 15.7 point landslide (http://'http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=29&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1'), which few polls came close to predicting. Akin's example could matter greatly for Trump, since polls taken even two weeks after his implosion similarly have not shown a sharp swing towards Clinton yet. But as Akin shows, they soon could.

Presidential elections are more polarized than downballot ones, and many of the so-called "game changers" of past races don't actually swing many votes (http://'http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/why-campaign-game-changers-rarely-change-the-game/'). However, unlike in practically every modern election, Trump's party leaders and elites will no longer be there to defend him from every attack and prime Republican-leaning voters to circle the wagons (http://'http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-trump-tape-have-a-bigger-effect-on-the-race-than-past-controversies/') around him. This unprecedented situation makes it plausible that Trump's numbers could decline further under sustained scrutiny. Even more critically, droves of Republicans might simply not vote because they are demoralized (http://'http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-republicans-turnout-229378') by the prospect of an unwinnable race.

And lower Republican turnout could cause Democrats to overperform their current polling numbers both up and down the ballot. While many Republican-leaning voters did ultimately abandon Akin, they still showed up to vote for Mitt Romney, who easily won Missouri by 9 points. However, it's almost always easier to motivate voters to vote in races at the top of the ticket than downballot, where the stakes are less obvious and partisan allegiances can be weaker.

In one recent example, Democrats reaped the devastating consequences of putting forth a non-credible candidate in Nevada's 2014 gubernatorial race, which was the top contest in the state that year. That led to abysmal turnout (http://'http://www.electproject.org/2014g') among Democrats, which in turn led to shockingly heavy downballot losses (http://'http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/30/1347380/-Election-2014-Lessons-from-the-GOP-landslide-in-the-Silver-State') for Team Blue. Now just imagine something like that on a national scale.

It's not just Trump's temperament that's wreaking serious havoc for Republicans—his lack of a traditional campaign could as well, particularly  since he relies more (http://'http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/upshot/the-one-demographic-that-is-hurting-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0') on voters with lower education levels than past Republican presidential nominees have. That demographic, though, is less likely to vote (http://'http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics') than more-educated voters. At the same time, Trump has leaned heavily on free media coverage (http://'http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-mammoth-advantage-in-free-media.html?_r=0') to power his candidacy, while Clinton and Democrats have pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into TV ads (http://'http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/team-clinton-has-spent-70-total-ad-money-16-race-n668331') and a get-out-the-vote operation (http://'http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/ground-game-democrats-started-fall-5-1-paid-staff-advantage-n661656'). It's unclear what precise impact this disparity could have, but one political scientist estimates it could cost Trumps 6 net points in swing states (http://'https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/08/25/how-many-votes-will-trump-give-up-by-not-running-a-professional-campaign-a-lot/').

One other way Trump could depress Republican turnout is with his now-central claim that the election is "rigged." There isn't a shred of evidence (http://'http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/trump-rigged-election-republican-voter-fraud-hysteria') to back up him up, of course, and this line of argument dangerously undermines our democracy itself (http://'http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/10/trump-election-rigged-democracy/504338/') because Trump holds sway with millions of partisans as the face of his party. However, one political science experiment found that such claims could backfire (http://'https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/08/15/why-donald-trumps-rigged-elections-warning-could-actually-make-his-supporters-less-likely-to-vote/') by lowering turnout among voters on the side making such accusations because their partisans figure there's no point in voting if the outcome is fixed. Trump, in other words, is telling his own supporters that they shouldn't bother casting ballots.

With all of these ways Trump could depress turnout, pollsters could have an even more difficult time estimating who is a likely voter, leading them to overestimate Republicans. Another problem pollsters face is the higher level (http://'http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-is-becoming-safer/') of support for third-party candidates and the unusually large number of undecided voters, compared to prior elections. Importantly, Clinton usually performs better (http://'http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/05/upshot/better-polling-for-clinton-but-trump-is-still-in-striking-distance.html?_r=0') in polls that exclude Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. What these polls reveal is that third-party supporters and undecideds utterly despise Trump, but aren't yet sold on Clinton either. If they come home to a major party—as often happens later in the campaign (http://'http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-is-becoming-safer/')—that could boost Clinton further.

Taken together, these issues with polling and turnout mean that just like with Todd Akin, Trump could indeed lose by a larger margin than the polls say now, and even than what they say on Election Day. And this finding is key because, as the chart below shows, generic congressional ballot polling has mostly tracked the two-way presidential election margin in polls over the last several weeks:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.dailykos.com%2Fimages%2F313866%2Flarge%2Fbeard.png%3F1476750354&hash=76f9e9fef81e1d29b12f524574b2aa56a95e960b)
A rising Clinton tide could very well lift Democratic boats downballot, and even if there are still many split-ticket Clinton voters who favor congressional Republicans, a wave could nonetheless wash away vulnerable Republican incumbents.

At present, Democrats lead by 5.5 percent (http://'http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-house-race') in the generic congressional ballot polling average. Thanks largely to gerrymandering, Democrats might need something closer to an 8 percent lead (http://'http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/08/16/1549316/-Here-s-why-Democrats-might-need-a-7-or-8-point-popular-vote-margin-to-take-back-the-House-this-fall') in the nationwide popular vote to win a majority, and many entrenched Republican incumbents likely poll better when named than a more abstract "generic Republican" would. That means Democrats still have a ways to go in the generic ballot polls before they're positioned to win the House.

And it's still possible Trump will fare better than Todd Akin, since he is after all running in a more polarized political environment where most Republican elites haven't yet denounced him despite many high-profile defections (http://'https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15MudzswjU45efqvus21goEqtknbsfy9w2CLaWvOa_z0/edit?usp=sharing'). However, it's plausible that Trump continues to trend downward—particularly as allegations of actual sexual assault continue to mount (http://'http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/12/all-of-donald-trump-s-accusers-a-timeline-of-every-alleged-grope-and-assault.html')—and underperforms his polling thanks in part to lower turnout. If Trump does decline, downballot Democrats' 5.5 percent congressional polling lead could plausibly grow wide enough that they could take the House (http://'http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/14/1581898/-Trump-could-cost-Republicans-the-House-Here-s-what-Democrats-path-to-a-majority-might-look-like'). We'll know soon enough.

I predict McMuffin will win Utah

I am guessing a 9 or so point win for Hillary.

Quote from: FunkMonk on October 20, 2016, 09:55:53 PM
I predict McMuffin will win Utah

With cheese

Kaine will win by 10 points after Hillary collapses or something and has to drop out but Trump gloats so much and continues to act like his usual enormous dickhead self about it that people still won't vote for him. 

Quote from: Ed Anger on October 20, 2016, 09:57:38 PM

Quote from: FunkMonk on October 20, 2016, 09:55:53 PM
I predict McMuffin will win Utah

With cheese

Delicious

Around 6%, she'll have an Electoral College landslide, but won't win the popular vote.

Quote from: Savonarola on October 21, 2016, 08:17:12 AM
Around 6%, she'll have an Electoral College landslide, but won't win the popular vote.

Her husband never won it either. Family tradition.

I think she'll make it to 50-51%. Obama did it twice before and there are plenty of more Democrat leaning voters this year.

I'm not sure how low Trump will go. I could see Trump at 38% with Johnson getting 8% and Stein/misc getting 2-3%.

She definitely won't have a Reagan/Nixon/Johnson level electoral college landslide. Her high water mark is in the mid 300s if all of the swing states fall into her camp. The Mormon will pick up Utah.

There would need to be some sort of major political shift to get those kinds of landslides again. The Blue State/Red State phenomenon, which started in 1992 (1988?) I think, makes it highly unlikely a Democrat or Republican will get nearly shut out anymore.

I think a landslide like that could happen again if it someone like a 1992/1996 Bill Clinton ran against an anathema like The Donald. However there's no one on the current Democratic bench who would be able to win over Appalachian whites like ole Bill.

Although a Bill Clinton in his 30-40s today would most certainly have several of his dick pictures posted on TMZ and the NYDaily News.  :hmm:

Quote from: derspiess on October 20, 2016, 09:14:22 PM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 20, 2016, 09:05:19 PM

Quote from: derspiess on October 20, 2016, 09:04:35 PM
I'd guess as much as 8%.  Languish will bitch that it's not enough.

That's not nearly enough.

And there we go.

Trumps got what?  A couple dozen immediate family?  Plus his campaign people and their immediate families.  That makes a few hundred people with a reasonable excuse for voting for him.  Add in voter error and confusion, and people in a big rush who quickly pull (r) and don't have time to undo the top one, and I would say about 10% vote for Donald would be acceptable.

Anything over that?  DEPLORABULL

:D

Ivanka 2020.

Vote for the HOTTer blonde.  :P

Quote from: Tonitrus on October 21, 2016, 09:21:30 PM
Ivanka 2020.

Vote for the HOTTer blonde.  :P

Don't you think the Trump brand has been rather tarnished during the campaign?

This is my map prediction for the election

375 Clinton, 157 Trump, 6 McMullin
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.270towin.com%2Fpresidential_map_new%2Fmaps%2FJlKmO.png&hash=fe6e08a58767f8c5559e88ea4c4c22c71bab01a7)

That's a stupid map.  And terribly, absolutely appallingly tainting.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2016, 09:37:18 PM
That's a stupid map.  And terribly, absolutely appallingly tainting.

Post your own map then.

I'll disown Seedy if he posts a map.  :mad:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thecinetourist.net%2Fuploads%2F7%2F0%2F9%2F9%2F7099213%2F8712351_orig.jpg&hash=393e63b48874aa282800493907eaaae470d080e2)

Go to your room.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/T7fU0RWWhWpYk/giphy.gif)

I'M GETTING MY BELT

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nationalmemo.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F12%2Fgene-hackman-luthor-west-coast-california-costa-del-lex-superman-otisburg-853.jpg&hash=43390a37e42516b54bfdfb480cf39064ad4853ff)

TWO WEEKS GROUNDED

Quote from: mongers on October 25, 2016, 06:36:29 AM

Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 24, 2016, 10:03:35 PM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2016, 09:37:18 PM
That's a stupid map.  And terribly, absolutely appallingly tainting.

Post your own map then.

I think you know what reply you're going to get.

It has been far too long! :punk:

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/blogs/laughlines/sodapop.jpg)

(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/63/36/6f/63366f6b2f922ea445647904b7c79942.jpg)

Polemarch Anger is a force to be reckoned with in the Cleveland-Akron Commonwealth of course.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2016, 09:37:18 PM
That's a stupid map.  And terribly, absolutely appallingly tainting.

I like that pretty blue color in Georgia.

Trump is 100% toxic. If he was just 75% toxic, almost all of us would be voting for him because of annoying Tim has been. One of the worst parts of the election is having to endure all of Tim's posts, and then still go vote the way Tim wants.

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on October 25, 2016, 07:03:06 AM
Polemarch Anger is a force to be reckoned with in the Cleveland-Akron Commonwealth of course.

I would blow my brains out living up there.

Quote from: alfred russel on October 25, 2016, 07:42:05 AM
Trump is 100% toxic. If he was just 75% toxic, almost all of us would be voting for him because of annoying Tim has been. One of the worst parts of the election is having to endure all of Tim's posts, and then still go vote the way Tim wants.

I don't get why people ever let trolls or puppy dogs decide how they'll vote.

I say Trump will win once the curtain is pulled off this whole rigged election and his supporters storm the government and the Reichstag i sset on fire by radical feminists.

How confident are we in our various predictions now?

Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2016, 08:30:33 PM
How confident are we in our various predictions now?

Less.

More.

About the same. 4-5% for Clinton.

It is quite disturbing that so many voters are willing to vote for Trump.  This election should not be close.

Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2016, 08:30:33 PM
How confident are we in our various predictions now?

I had apparently picked 8-9.99%, which I don't expect to happen anymore. It will be much closer, but I still expect Clinton to win both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Quote from: mongers on October 20, 2016, 08:56:18 PM
Less than 3 weeks to go, most here and many political commentators are saying Clinton has won the race, saving some tragedy overtaking her or America, what eventual victory will she have over Trump in terms of share of the vote?

I'm not asking about your opinion of the electoral college vote, that could be another poll* or even who will eventually become president, but merely by how many percentage points will Clinton's share of the vote be greater than Trumps.

Feel free to ponder situations and scenarios that explain your choice, hell speculate about the success of 3rd party candidates, but it's time to put up or shut up, now's your opportunity to call this election.

Someone like Yi will probably want to have a bet with you over you respective choices.  :P






* done by someone other than me ie a person with some in depth knowledge of the US political system.

All those polical commentariat you mention are left wing hacks opinion makers, not real analysts.

I say Trump wins with a Reagan like plurality and the world doesn't end.

Quote from: Monoriu on November 06, 2016, 12:06:11 AM
It is quite disturbing that so many voters are willing to vote for Trump.  This election should not be close.

Mono, what you think of Trump is shaped by the mainstream media who hates trump.
He is nowhere near as bad as they paint him, and definitely not a racisss homophobic whatever etc etc.

Quote from: Siege on November 06, 2016, 10:31:39 AM

Quote from: Monoriu on November 06, 2016, 12:06:11 AM
It is quite disturbing that so many voters are willing to vote for Trump.  This election should not be close.

Mono, what you think of Trump is shaped by the mainstream media who hates trump.
He is nowhere near as bad as they paint him, and definitely not a racisss homophobic whatever etc etc.

No, he is actually worse than the media paints him, they have been treating him with kid gloves the entire time in a vain effort to appear "balanced".

Him whining like a bitch about the media is just part and parcel with his weak, loser mentality that only the simple minded and sycophants would find appealing.

Quote from: Zanza on November 06, 2016, 06:49:04 AM

Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2016, 08:30:33 PM
How confident are we in our various predictions now?

I had apparently picked 8-9.99%, which I don't expect to happen anymore. It will be much closer, but I still expect Clinton to win both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Keep dreaming.

This election is in the bag for the Trumpminator.
The American people are waking up at last.

Quote from: Siege on November 06, 2016, 10:37:04 AM

Quote from: Zanza on November 06, 2016, 06:49:04 AM

Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2016, 08:30:33 PM
How confident are we in our various predictions now?

I had apparently picked 8-9.99%, which I don't expect to happen anymore. It will be much closer, but I still expect Clinton to win both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Keep dreaming.

This election is in the bag for the Trumpminator.
The American people are waking up at last.

yes, the election is in the bag for trump. in the imaginary alt-right world where women and hispanics don't vote...

Quote from: Siege on November 06, 2016, 10:37:04 AM

Quote from: Zanza on November 06, 2016, 06:49:04 AM

Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2016, 08:30:33 PM
How confident are we in our various predictions now?

I had apparently picked 8-9.99%, which I don't expect to happen anymore. It will be much closer, but I still expect Clinton to win both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Keep dreaming.

This election is in the bag for the Trumpminator.
The American people are waking up at last.

I doubt the KKK and asorted retards like jews very much

Quote from: Siege on November 06, 2016, 10:31:39 AM
Mono, what you think of Trump is shaped by the mainstream media who hates trump.

They hate him for the same reason the rest of us do, for the things he says and does.

Interesting that since I bumped this thread today, two of the four new votes have been for a trump victory, whereas previously just five out of the forty had gone for that prediction.

Quote from: mongers on November 06, 2016, 12:48:05 PM
Interesting that since I bumped this thread today, two of the four new votes have been for a trump victory, whereas previously just five out of the forty had gone for that prediction.

I live in a state where the registered Democrats outnumber the registered Republicans by a margin surpassed only by Massachusetts, and we have a Republican governor.  Why?  Because Republicans were energized with anti-Malleyism, and Democrats stayed home because Brown was as inspiring as a can of paint.
Same thing will happen on Tuesday in just enough states for Trump to win. 
Pure hatred for Clinton and the pure hatred for the accelerating progressiveness of American society will ensure that, yes, someone like Donald J. Trump will occupy the same office of Washington, Lincoln, FDR, Kennedy, Reagan.  Horrifying, dumbfounding, and sad.

"Weak" prediction from me because there's so much variance in this year's polls, but I think she wins by 6% or so. Aggregate polling underestimated Obama in 2012, and I think based on the "fuzzy data" we're seeing so far there's more reason to expect Hillary is being underestimated than overestimated, and thus a few points higher than she's actually polling, seems reasonable to me.

In 2012 I'd probably have predicted Obama largely won by the margin of his current aggregate polling, because all the poll aggregators/modelers had a much higher confidence level in that election than this one (due to much less variance in the polls); albeit several of them this year are pretty confident on Hillary (Silver is one of the outliers in showing a closer race.)

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 06, 2016, 01:19:01 PM

Quote from: mongers on November 06, 2016, 12:48:05 PM
Interesting that since I bumped this thread today, two of the four new votes have been for a trump victory, whereas previously just five out of the forty had gone for that prediction.

I live in a state where the registered Democrats outnumber the registered Republicans by a margin surpassed only by Massachusetts, and we have a Republican governor.  Why?  Because Republicans were energized with anti-Malleyism, and Democrats stayed home because Brown was as inspiring as a can of paint.
Same thing will happen on Tuesday in just enough states for Trump to win. 
Pure hatred for Clinton and the pure hatred for the accelerating progressiveness of American society will ensure that, yes, someone like Donald J. Trump will occupy the same office of Washington, Lincoln, FDR, Kennedy, Reagan.  Horrifying, dumbfounding, and sad.

if people can't be bothered to elect a can of paint over one of the incarnations of the devil, then they deserve what they get.

I was prompted by Seeb's posts to wrack my brain to see if I could come up with a person who disagreed with or criticized Trump who Trump in turn did not insult, mock, or ridicule.

I did manage to come up with one: Mike Pence.  :D

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2016, 02:08:35 PM
I was prompted by Seeb's posts to wrack my brain to see if I could come up with a person who disagreed with or criticized Trump who Trump in turn did not insult, mock, or ridicule.

I did manage to come up with one: Mike Pence.  :D

What amazes me is how the worst of his bullying is constantly reinforced.  Look at Cruz;  primary opponents, Trump goes after him at such a personal level, from accusing his father of being involved in the JFK assassination to posting my-wife-is-hotter-than-yours Twitter posts.

You're punk ass little bitch, and I can treat you like a little bitch, but you'll support me in the end.  Because you're my bitch.   And he's right.

From the Chris Christie hostage video to Cruz, to the rest of his GOP prison bitches in betweeen, it's amazing how the shittiest aspects of his personality are constantly reinforced, which in turn makes him justified to be even shittier.

I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 06, 2016, 01:39:14 PM
if people can't be bothered to elect a can of paint over one of the incarnations of the devil, then they deserve what they get.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwhPz5JUoAASUno.jpg)

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2016, 02:53:59 PM
I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

I'm assuming a typical yokel Canuck pollster just drives by the local lumber mill and hollers "Who ya votin for eh?" and vaguely judges a response before driving on. Here in America we kinda know what we're doing with polls.

Hacksaw in the crotch looks unpleasant.  Never noticed it before.

Otto's method discounts the vital maple syrup farmer vote.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2016, 03:18:32 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2016, 02:53:59 PM
I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

I'm assuming a typical yokel Canuck pollster just drives by the local lumber mill and hollers "Who ya votin for eh?" and vaguely judges a response before driving on. Here in America we kinda know what we're doing with polls.

Nate Silver constantly underrated Trump during the Republican primaries. You also have a lot of partisan polling research, which seems pretty illogical.

Your polling's not all that.

Speaking of polling, has that dude with the Arab name gone out of business?  Don't think I can remember his company being mentioned this election.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 06, 2016, 03:17:18 PM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 06, 2016, 01:39:14 PM
if people can't be bothered to elect a can of paint over one of the incarnations of the devil, then they deserve what they get.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwhPz5JUoAASUno.jpg)

hah, Bosch would have approved I guess :D

Quote from: Zoupa on November 06, 2016, 03:39:20 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2016, 03:18:32 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2016, 02:53:59 PM
I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

I'm assuming a typical yokel Canuck pollster just drives by the local lumber mill and hollers "Who ya votin for eh?" and vaguely judges a response before driving on. Here in America we kinda know what we're doing with polls.

Nate Silver constantly underrated Trump during the Republican primaries. You also have a lot of partisan polling research, which seems pretty illogical.

Your polling's not all that.

Silver underestimated Trump in his editorials/prognostications about the "race at large", he has issued a mea culpa for that. But when it came to his state-by-state projections for both primaries, 538 got the vast majority right, or rather the candidates who had a "high probability" of victory in the primary states in the last 538 rating before the elections, generally won. The GOP I think they missed a few, and the Dems I think they only missed 1 or 2.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2016, 03:41:02 PM
Speaking of polling, has that dude with the Arab name gone out of business?  Don't think I can remember his company being mentioned this election.

Zogby?

Quote from: Fate on November 06, 2016, 04:50:36 PM
Zogby?

Yup.

Looks like Zogby is still around, but reduced immensely. Sold off most (all?) of his old polling firm and his role appears to be to give numbers to outfits like the Washington Examiner and Newsmax. I remember him being a lot bigger the last couple elections, I guess he was simply far too wrong far too often to keep himself relevant.

How the fuck is "Zogby" an Arab name?  :D

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2016, 03:18:32 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2016, 02:53:59 PM
I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

I'm assuming a typical yokel Canuck pollster just drives by the local lumber mill and hollers "Who ya votin for eh?" and vaguely judges a response before driving on. Here in America we kinda know what we're doing with polls.

One more thing I don't understand about Americans.

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2016, 09:18:53 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2016, 03:18:32 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2016, 02:53:59 PM
I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

I'm assuming a typical yokel Canuck pollster just drives by the local lumber mill and hollers "Who ya votin for eh?" and vaguely judges a response before driving on. Here in America we kinda know what we're doing with polls.

One more thing I don't understand about Americans.

That post was literally designed to draw you out.

Quote from: Martinus on November 06, 2016, 05:34:15 PM
How the fuck is "Zogby" an Arab name?  :D

Sounds Albanian to me. :hmm:

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2016, 10:10:11 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2016, 09:18:53 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2016, 03:18:32 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2016, 02:53:59 PM
I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

I'm assuming a typical yokel Canuck pollster just drives by the local lumber mill and hollers "Who ya votin for eh?" and vaguely judges a response before driving on. Here in America we kinda know what we're doing with polls.

One more thing I don't understand about Americans.

That post was literally designed to draw you out.

I know, that is the thing I don't understand, its like you have all become Grumbler.

Quote from: Zoupa on November 06, 2016, 03:39:20 PM

Nate Silver constantly underrated Trump during the Republican primaries. You also have a lot of partisan polling research, which seems pretty illogical.

Your polling's not all that.

Nate Silver isn't a pollster. During the primaries he consistently discounted Trump's odds despite Trump polling in the lead. That isn't an indictment of US polling--if anything that works in its defense.

Note that Silver was actually going off the numbers in the primaries, too. Up to the point he was making his editorial prognostications, he was going off the fact that Trump had been sitting in the low 30s and hadn't realized gains even as the primary field narrowed. His belief was there was a "ceiling" of support for the Republican candidate, and that as the other candidates were winnowed out one of them would eventually have a larger vote share and knock him out of the race.

It wasn't a baseless thought, he was just wrong--there wasn't really a ceiling. Too many people also stayed in too long. By the time it was only Cruz, Kasich, and Trump the math on any of them beating Trump was very bad. There was a chance late that Cruz could've finished strong and denied Trump the nomination, but there appeared (at least to me) to be a significant backlash from Republican voters when the Cruz and Kasich campaigns started colluding not to try and win a delegate majority of their own but simply to work together to deny Trump one. He ended up winning Indiana and a few other states by absolute majorities and was then on track to win an outright majority.

Before that, the projections based on state polling suggested Trump would finish with a plurality of the votes but had little chance of the majority.

According to CNN Trump announces Brady AND Bellicheat endorsing him.   :yuk:

Quote from: Alcibiades on November 08, 2016, 12:19:42 AM
According to CNN Trump announces Brady AND Bellicheat endorsing him.   :yuk:

Hopefully that loses Pennsylvania and Ohio for Trump :P

So there was nothing to these last minute allegations about emails coming from the New-York FBI office after all... 

I recently saw a Youtube clip where one guy, who used to work for the Clintons since the Arkensas days, said this would turn out exactly like that.  He said the whole thing was organized to make Hillary look like the underdog and bolster support for her.

Whatever comes tonight the aftermath should be interesting.


G.

Quote from: Grallon on November 08, 2016, 09:21:15 AM
So there was nothing to these last minute allegations about emails coming from the New-York FBI office after all... 

I recently saw a Youtube clip where one guy, who used to work for the Clintons since the Arkensas days, said this would turn out exactly like that.  He said the whole thing was organized to make Hillary look like the underdog and bolster support for her.

Whatever comes tonight the aftermath should be interesting.


G.

The claim this guy made is that the Clinton strategy was to blow a large lead just before the election so that she could look like an underdog?  I think we can understand whey he no longer works for the Clintons - assuming he ever did.

I think it would be good is someone with a lot more knowledge of US politics than me, constructed a prediction poll/thread for electoral college and congressional results.

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 08, 2016, 09:54:25 AM
The claim this guy made is that the Clinton strategy was to blow a large lead just before the election so that she could look like an underdog?  I think we can understand whey he no longer works for the Clintons - assuming he ever did.

:lol:  It's so crazy it just might work!

So who here got it right?

Looks like we will be building a wall.  :homestar:

Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2016, 11:36:36 PM
So who here got it right?

I refrained from voting...

Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2016, 02:53:59 PM
I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

:whistle:

I voted this : Trump wins a Plurality  (Jaron option?)
- 8 (16.3%)

I'm glad I didn't make any predictions this time around.  :lol:

Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2016, 11:36:36 PM
So who here got it right?

I was one of the 8 people who picked the Jaron option.  :showoff:

Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 20, 2016, 09:17:26 PM
Trump will pull it out, the sea will overtake Miami, and most ominously of all, the Cubs will win the World Series.  :ph34r:

2 of 3 have already happened, look out Miami.  :sleep:

PA called for Trump.

Quote from: Martinus on November 09, 2016, 01:36:33 AM

Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2016, 11:36:36 PM
So who here got it right?

I was one of the 8 people who picked the Jaron option.  :showoff:

Big deal, so did I.

Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2016, 11:36:36 PM
So who here got it right?

From the posts, Siege got it 100% right.

And got ignored by people who kept saying that Clinton was going to win handily.  :D

Quote from: Savonarola on October 21, 2016, 08:17:12 AM
Around 6%, she'll have an Electoral College landslide, but won't win the popular vote.

Well, I was right about the not winning the popular vote.   :(

(I had meant majority of the popular vote, it looks like she will win the plurality of the popular vote.)

Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2016, 11:36:36 PM
So who here got it right?

As of right now "Dead heat" is the correct answer; Hil is up by about .1% of the popular vote.  No one picked that (as of right now  ;).)

Edit:  Misread that the correct answer should have been 0.01 - 0.99% - which no one has picked (as of right now.)

I don't remember my vote or even if I voted.

I didn't vote, but I thought she'd win by a convincing 5%.

The Huffington Puffington Post gave Hillary a 98.0% chance of winning last night.  Just 1.7% for Trump

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president

Their model was kinda crap, BUT to be fair, lots and lots of polls were off by around 5%, sometimes more. I guess the shy Trump voter was a thing.

Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2016, 01:24:43 PM
Their model was kinda crap, BUT to be fair, lots and lots of polls were off by around 5%, sometimes more. I guess the shy Trump voter was a thing.

Polling is tough when people aren't honest about their answers.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 09, 2016, 01:29:39 PM

Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2016, 01:24:43 PM
Their model was kinda crap, BUT to be fair, lots and lots of polls were off by around 5%, sometimes more. I guess the shy Trump voter was a thing.

Polling is tough when people aren't honest about their answers.

and here I thought US pollsters were the Thing, compared Yuros&Canuckistanis pollsters who keep getting it wrong...

*paging OvB, paging Dr OttoVonBismarck*

Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 24, 2016, 09:29:49 PM
This is my map prediction for the election

375 Clinton, 157 Trump, 6 McMullin
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.270towin.com%2Fpresidential_map_new%2Fmaps%2FJlKmO.png&hash=fe6e08a58767f8c5559e88ea4c4c22c71bab01a7)

For the record.

Quote from: Ed Anger on October 20, 2016, 09:01:28 PM
I already bet my old man a hundred that Hillary is gonna win. So no Yi bets for me.

10%. I guess.

WHOOPS

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 06, 2016, 01:19:01 PM

Quote from: mongers on November 06, 2016, 12:48:05 PM
Interesting that since I bumped this thread today, two of the four new votes have been for a trump victory, whereas previously just five out of the forty had gone for that prediction.

I live in a state where the registered Democrats outnumber the registered Republicans by a margin surpassed only by Massachusetts, and we have a Republican governor.  Why?  Because Republicans were energized with anti-Malleyism, and Democrats stayed home because Brown was as inspiring as a can of paint.
Same thing will happen on Tuesday in just enough states for Trump to win. 
Pure hatred for Clinton and the pure hatred for the accelerating progressiveness of American society will ensure that, yes, someone like Donald J. Trump will occupy the same office of Washington, Lincoln, FDR, Kennedy, Reagan.  Horrifying, dumbfounding, and sad.

Also for the record.

It's kinda fucked up if we can't rely on polls so much to shape policy and impact. Maybe the Scots go for a second referendum thinking they're at 60+ and end up getting a cold shower again for example. Bleh.

Quote from: Zoupa on November 10, 2016, 12:27:17 AM
It's kinda fucked up if we can't rely on polls so much to shape policy and impact. Maybe the Scots go for a second referendum thinking they're at 60+ and end up getting a cold shower again for example. Bleh.

Brain chips.

Quote from: mongers on November 09, 2016, 07:46:55 PM
For the record.

I'd like to point out that Tim wasn't the only one who thought Trump would lose Utah. :jaron:

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 09, 2016, 01:29:39 PM

Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2016, 01:24:43 PM
Their model was kinda crap, BUT to be fair, lots and lots of polls were off by around 5%, sometimes more. I guess the shy Trump voter was a thing.

Polling is tough when people aren't honest about their answers.

I think it's less about people not being honest as people just telling pollsters to fuck off.

Quote from: Fate on November 06, 2016, 10:38:48 AM

Quote from: Siege on November 06, 2016, 10:37:04 AM

Quote from: Zanza on November 06, 2016, 06:49:04 AM

Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2016, 08:30:33 PM
How confident are we in our various predictions now?

I had apparently picked 8-9.99%, which I don't expect to happen anymore. It will be much closer, but I still expect Clinton to win both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Keep dreaming.

This election is in the bag for the Trumpminator.
The American people are waking up at last.

yes, the election is in the bag for trump. in the imaginary alt-right world where women and hispanics don't vote...

:lol:

Quote from: derspiess on November 09, 2016, 10:12:44 AM
The Huffington Puffington Post gave Hillary a 98.0% chance of winning last night.  Just 1.7% for Trump

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president

With a diverse editorial board like this, how could they got it so wrong?  :hmm:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aim.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F05%2Fliz-heron-huffpo-feminism-pic.png&hash=b362d0059af76fad5cc6dcc0ca2c8d2eadda6e36)

Yes Mart. Let's fire a couple of those qualified people that just happen to have a vagina to put Johnny Reb from Methtown, Oklahoma instead. To get a pulse of what the "real" America is thinking.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwz43-8WIAAFTc5.jpg)

Ooops.

Quote from: Zoupa on November 10, 2016, 03:06:44 AM
Yes Mart. Let's fire a couple of those qualified people that just happen to have a vagina to put Johnny Reb from Methtown, Oklahoma instead. To get a pulse of what the "real" America is thinking.

Relax, man. You always read everything in the worst possible way. This photo made rounds few months ago because the author of the photo was actually using it to brag about the composition of the editorial board - at that time people thought it was funny and/or outrageous (I thought the former). I was just reusing the old meme.

HuffPo has a shitload of male editors, moreover, it has a shitload of editors - a laughable amount for a single media outlet actually. They just probably sat several of the females together for the photo.

Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2016, 01:24:43 PM
I guess the shy Trump voter was a thing.

Not really, he got less votes than Romney. Democratic turnout collapsed, and outside North Carolina, it can't in any significant way be blamed on Republican suppression.

Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 10, 2016, 04:04:40 AM
Not really, he got less votes than Romney.

What a horrible thing to say.

Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 10, 2016, 04:04:40 AMNot really, he got less votes than Romney. Democratic turnout collapsed, and outside North Carolina, it can't in any significant way be blamed on Republican suppression.

Trump's gambit paid off, his vote totals dropped in secure red states but he compensated for it in the swing states.

So what's the big plan going forward, fellas?  Now that the campaign trolling phase is over, what's your plans for the transition troll phase?

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2016, 06:27:43 AM
So what's the big plan going forward, fellas?  Now that the campaign trolling phase is over, what's your plans for the transition troll phase?

Yeah, good question; Legbiter seems to be showing some humility, however Marty is cranking up insufferable, what to do?  :ph34r:

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2016, 06:27:43 AM
So what's the big plan going forward, fellas?  Now that the campaign trolling phase is over, what's your plans for the transition troll phase?

At a glance, extraction and consumption of butthurt.

Quote from: mongers on November 10, 2016, 07:14:39 AM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2016, 06:27:43 AM
So what's the big plan going forward, fellas?  Now that the campaign trolling phase is over, what's your plans for the transition troll phase?

Yeah, good question; Legbiter seems to be showing some humility, however Marty is cranking up insufferable, what to do?  :ph34r:

Oh come on now. How I really been so?  :hug:

Quote from: Martinus on November 10, 2016, 07:35:05 AM

Quote from: mongers on November 10, 2016, 07:14:39 AM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2016, 06:27:43 AM
So what's the big plan going forward, fellas?  Now that the campaign trolling phase is over, what's your plans for the transition troll phase?

Yeah, good question; Legbiter seems to be showing some humility, however Marty is cranking up insufferable, what to do?  :ph34r:

Oh come on now. How I really been so?  :hug:

Well if you dial it down a notch I'll overlook it. :hug:

Quote from: Legbiter on November 10, 2016, 07:33:40 AM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2016, 06:27:43 AM
So what's the big plan going forward, fellas?  Now that the campaign trolling phase is over, what's your plans for the transition troll phase?

At a glance, extraction and consumption of butthurt.

The number of American flags being burned by protesters in American cities today is directly proportional to said butt hurt. Enjoy it son.

Re-try. :D

What will be Clinton's final lead in the popular vote?  She is currently ahead by ~230,000 votes.  Absentee and provisional ballots still coming.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Quote from: FunkMonk on November 10, 2016, 08:19:44 AM

Quote from: Legbiter on November 10, 2016, 07:33:40 AM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2016, 06:27:43 AM
So what's the big plan going forward, fellas?  Now that the campaign trolling phase is over, what's your plans for the transition troll phase?

At a glance, extraction and consumption of butthurt.

The number of American flags being burned by protesters in American cities today is directly proportional to said butt hurt. Enjoy it son.

It's those people making asses of themselves.  Why should it bother him?

Quote from: derspiess on November 10, 2016, 09:43:23 AM

Quote from: FunkMonk on November 10, 2016, 08:19:44 AM

Quote from: Legbiter on November 10, 2016, 07:33:40 AM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2016, 06:27:43 AM
So what's the big plan going forward, fellas?  Now that the campaign trolling phase is over, what's your plans for the transition troll phase?

At a glance, extraction and consumption of butthurt.

The number of American flags being burned by protesters in American cities today is directly proportional to said butt hurt. Enjoy it son.

It's those people making asses of themselves.  Why should it bother him?

Not saying it should bother him. Rather, it is good for his consumption of butt hurt.

Quote from: derspiess on November 10, 2016, 09:43:23 AM
It's those people making asses of themselves.  Why should it bother him?

Because Legbiter finds shit like that funny? LOLZ and stuff.

Quote from: Martinus on November 10, 2016, 01:56:04 AM
HuffPo Editors

They have a bunch of cheap folding tables pushed together instead of a real conference table.  :hmm:

Quote from: Habbaku on November 10, 2016, 10:23:53 AM

Quote from: Martinus on November 10, 2016, 01:56:04 AM
HuffPo Editors

They have a bunch of cheap folding tables pushed together instead of a real conference table.  :hmm:

Ah the glamour of a net-based click-bait pseudo-news organization.