How large will Clinton win over Trump in the popular vote?

[crazy canuck]

I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

I'm assuming a typical yokel Canuck pollster just drives by the local lumber mill and hollers "Who ya votin for eh?" and vaguely judges a response before driving on. Here in America we kinda know what we're doing with polls.

One more thing I don't understand about Americans.

That post was literally designed to draw you out.

I know, that is the thing I don't understand, its like you have all become Grumbler.

[alfred russel]

Nate Silver constantly underrated Trump during the Republican primaries. You also have a lot of partisan polling research, which seems pretty illogical.

Your polling's not all that.

Nate Silver isn't a pollster. During the primaries he consistently discounted Trump's odds despite Trump polling in the lead. That isn't an indictment of US polling--if anything that works in its defense.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Note that Silver was actually going off the numbers in the primaries, too. Up to the point he was making his editorial prognostications, he was going off the fact that Trump had been sitting in the low 30s and hadn't realized gains even as the primary field narrowed. His belief was there was a "ceiling" of support for the Republican candidate, and that as the other candidates were winnowed out one of them would eventually have a larger vote share and knock him out of the race.

It wasn't a baseless thought, he was just wrong--there wasn't really a ceiling. Too many people also stayed in too long. By the time it was only Cruz, Kasich, and Trump the math on any of them beating Trump was very bad. There was a chance late that Cruz could've finished strong and denied Trump the nomination, but there appeared (at least to me) to be a significant backlash from Republican voters when the Cruz and Kasich campaigns started colluding not to try and win a delegate majority of their own but simply to work together to deny Trump one. He ended up winning Indiana and a few other states by absolute majorities and was then on track to win an outright majority.

Before that, the projections based on state polling suggested Trump would finish with a plurality of the votes but had little chance of the majority.

[Alcibiades]

According to CNN Trump announces Brady AND Bellicheat endorsing him.   

[Valmy]

According to CNN Trump announces Brady AND Bellicheat endorsing him.   

Hopefully that loses Pennsylvania and Ohio for Trump

[Grallon]

So there was nothing to these last minute allegations about emails coming from the New-York FBI office after all... 

I recently saw a Youtube clip where one guy, who used to work for the Clintons since the Arkensas days, said this would turn out exactly like that.  He said the whole thing was organized to make Hillary look like the underdog and bolster support for her.

Whatever comes tonight the aftermath should be interesting.


G.

[crazy canuck]

So there was nothing to these last minute allegations about emails coming from the New-York FBI office after all... 

I recently saw a Youtube clip where one guy, who used to work for the Clintons since the Arkensas days, said this would turn out exactly like that.  He said the whole thing was organized to make Hillary look like the underdog and bolster support for her.

Whatever comes tonight the aftermath should be interesting.


G.

The claim this guy made is that the Clinton strategy was to blow a large lead just before the election so that she could look like an underdog?  I think we can understand whey he no longer works for the Clintons - assuming he ever did.

[mongers]

I think it would be good is someone with a lot more knowledge of US politics than me, constructed a prediction poll/thread for electoral college and congressional results.

[derspiess]

The claim this guy made is that the Clinton strategy was to blow a large lead just before the election so that she could look like an underdog?  I think we can understand whey he no longer works for the Clintons - assuming he ever did.

  It's so crazy it just might work!

[mongers]

So who here got it right?

[Alcibiades]

Looks like we will be building a wall. 

[Jacob]

So who here got it right?

I refrained from voting...

[crazy canuck]

I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.

[Grey Fox]

I voted this : Trump wins a Plurality  (Jaron option?)
- 8 (16.3%)

[MadImmortalMan]

I'm glad I didn't make any predictions this time around.