How large will Clinton win over Trump in the popular vote?

Started by mongers, October 20, 2016, 08:56:18 PM

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What will Clinton's victory be over Trump  in the popular vote, as a percentage?

15% or more
4 (7.8%)
12 - 14.99%
3 (5.9%)
10 - 11.99%
8 (15.7%)
8 - 9.99%
4 (7.8%)
6 - 7.99%
10 (19.6%)
5 - 5.99%
5 (9.8%)
4 - 4.99%
3 (5.9%)
3 - 3.99%
1 (2%)
2 - 2.99%
3 (5.9%)
1 - 1.99%
0 (0%)
0.01 - 0.99%
0 (0%)
Deadheat,  say +0.0099 - -0.0099
0 (0%)
Trump wins a Plurality  (Jaron option?)
10 (19.6%)

Total Members Voted: 50

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Fate

#15
October 21, 2016, 09:18:24 AM Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 09:29:47 AM by Fate
I think she'll make it to 50-51%. Obama did it twice before and there are plenty of more Democrat leaning voters this year.

I'm not sure how low Trump will go. I could see Trump at 38% with Johnson getting 8% and Stein/misc getting 2-3%.

She definitely won't have a Reagan/Nixon/Johnson level electoral college landslide. Her high water mark is in the mid 300s if all of the swing states fall into her camp. The Mormon will pick up Utah.

Valmy

#16
October 21, 2016, 09:30:24 AM
There would need to be some sort of major political shift to get those kinds of landslides again. The Blue State/Red State phenomenon, which started in 1992 (1988?) I think, makes it highly unlikely a Democrat or Republican will get nearly shut out anymore.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Fate

#17
October 21, 2016, 09:37:32 AM Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 09:40:35 AM by Fate
I think a landslide like that could happen again if it someone like a 1992/1996 Bill Clinton ran against an anathema like The Donald. However there's no one on the current Democratic bench who would be able to win over Appalachian whites like ole Bill.

Although a Bill Clinton in his 30-40s today would most certainly have several of his dick pictures posted on TMZ and the NYDaily News.  :hmm:

The Minsky Moment

#18
October 21, 2016, 11:12:58 AM
Quote from: derspiess on October 20, 2016, 09:14:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 20, 2016, 09:05:19 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 20, 2016, 09:04:35 PM
I'd guess as much as 8%.  Languish will bitch that it's not enough.

That's not nearly enough.

And there we go.

Trumps got what?  A couple dozen immediate family?  Plus his campaign people and their immediate families.  That makes a few hundred people with a reasonable excuse for voting for him.  Add in voter error and confusion, and people in a big rush who quickly pull (r) and don't have time to undo the top one, and I would say about 10% vote for Donald would be acceptable.

Anything over that?  DEPLORABULL
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

derspiess

#19
October 21, 2016, 01:13:02 PM
:D
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Tonitrus

#20
October 21, 2016, 09:21:30 PM
Ivanka 2020.

Vote for the HOTTer blonde.  :P

mongers

#21
October 22, 2016, 01:47:19 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 21, 2016, 09:21:30 PM
Ivanka 2020.

Vote for the HOTTer blonde.  :P

Don't you think the Trump brand has been rather tarnished during the campaign?
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

jimmy olsen

#22
October 24, 2016, 09:29:49 PM
This is my map prediction for the election

375 Clinton, 157 Trump, 6 McMullin
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

CountDeMoney

#23
October 24, 2016, 09:37:18 PM
That's a stupid map.  And terribly, absolutely appallingly tainting.

jimmy olsen

#24
October 24, 2016, 10:03:35 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2016, 09:37:18 PM
That's a stupid map.  And terribly, absolutely appallingly tainting.
Post your own map then.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Ed Anger

#25
October 24, 2016, 10:05:10 PM
I'll disown Seedy if he posts a map.  :mad:
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Ed Anger

#27
October 24, 2016, 10:15:00 PM
Go to your room.
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Ed Anger

#29
October 24, 2016, 10:17:50 PM
I'M GETTING MY BELT
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive
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