How large will Clinton win over Trump in the popular vote?

[Zanza]

How confident are we in our various predictions now?

I had apparently picked 8-9.99%, which I don't expect to happen anymore. It will be much closer, but I still expect Clinton to win both the popular vote and the electoral college.

[Siege]

Less than 3 weeks to go, most here and many political commentators are saying Clinton has won the race, saving some tragedy overtaking her or America, what eventual victory will she have over Trump in terms of share of the vote?

I'm not asking about your opinion of the electoral college vote, that could be another poll* or even who will eventually become president, but merely by how many percentage points will Clinton's share of the vote be greater than Trumps.

Feel free to ponder situations and scenarios that explain your choice, hell speculate about the success of 3rd party candidates, but it's time to put up or shut up, now's your opportunity to call this election.

Someone like Yi will probably want to have a bet with you over you respective choices. 






* done by someone other than me ie a person with some in depth knowledge of the US political system.

All those polical commentariat you mention are left wing hacks opinion makers, not real analysts.

I say Trump wins with a Reagan like plurality and the world doesn't end.

[Siege]

It is quite disturbing that so many voters are willing to vote for Trump.  This election should not be close.

Mono, what you think of Trump is shaped by the mainstream media who hates trump.
He is nowhere near as bad as they paint him, and definitely not a racisss homophobic whatever etc etc.

[Berkut]

It is quite disturbing that so many voters are willing to vote for Trump.  This election should not be close.

Mono, what you think of Trump is shaped by the mainstream media who hates trump.
He is nowhere near as bad as they paint him, and definitely not a racisss homophobic whatever etc etc.

No, he is actually worse than the media paints him, they have been treating him with kid gloves the entire time in a vain effort to appear "balanced".

Him whining like a bitch about the media is just part and parcel with his weak, loser mentality that only the simple minded and sycophants would find appealing.

[Siege]

How confident are we in our various predictions now?

I had apparently picked 8-9.99%, which I don't expect to happen anymore. It will be much closer, but I still expect Clinton to win both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Keep dreaming.

This election is in the bag for the Trumpminator.
The American people are waking up at last.

[Fate]

How confident are we in our various predictions now?

I had apparently picked 8-9.99%, which I don't expect to happen anymore. It will be much closer, but I still expect Clinton to win both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Keep dreaming.

This election is in the bag for the Trumpminator.
The American people are waking up at last.

yes, the election is in the bag for trump. in the imaginary alt-right world where women and hispanics don't vote...

[Crazy_Ivan80]

How confident are we in our various predictions now?

I had apparently picked 8-9.99%, which I don't expect to happen anymore. It will be much closer, but I still expect Clinton to win both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Keep dreaming.

This election is in the bag for the Trumpminator.
The American people are waking up at last.

I doubt the KKK and asorted retards like jews very much

[Admiral Yi]

Mono, what you think of Trump is shaped by the mainstream media who hates trump.

They hate him for the same reason the rest of us do, for the things he says and does.

[mongers]

Interesting that since I bumped this thread today, two of the four new votes have been for a trump victory, whereas previously just five out of the forty had gone for that prediction.

[CountDeMoney]

Interesting that since I bumped this thread today, two of the four new votes have been for a trump victory, whereas previously just five out of the forty had gone for that prediction.

I live in a state where the registered Democrats outnumber the registered Republicans by a margin surpassed only by Massachusetts, and we have a Republican governor.  Why?  Because Republicans were energized with anti-Malleyism, and Democrats stayed home because Brown was as inspiring as a can of paint.
Same thing will happen on Tuesday in just enough states for Trump to win. 
Pure hatred for Clinton and the pure hatred for the accelerating progressiveness of American society will ensure that, yes, someone like Donald J. Trump will occupy the same office of Washington, Lincoln, FDR, Kennedy, Reagan.  Horrifying, dumbfounding, and sad.

[OttoVonBismarck]

"Weak" prediction from me because there's so much variance in this year's polls, but I think she wins by 6% or so. Aggregate polling underestimated Obama in 2012, and I think based on the "fuzzy data" we're seeing so far there's more reason to expect Hillary is being underestimated than overestimated, and thus a few points higher than she's actually polling, seems reasonable to me.

In 2012 I'd probably have predicted Obama largely won by the margin of his current aggregate polling, because all the poll aggregators/modelers had a much higher confidence level in that election than this one (due to much less variance in the polls); albeit several of them this year are pretty confident on Hillary (Silver is one of the outliers in showing a closer race.)

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Interesting that since I bumped this thread today, two of the four new votes have been for a trump victory, whereas previously just five out of the forty had gone for that prediction.

I live in a state where the registered Democrats outnumber the registered Republicans by a margin surpassed only by Massachusetts, and we have a Republican governor.  Why?  Because Republicans were energized with anti-Malleyism, and Democrats stayed home because Brown was as inspiring as a can of paint.
Same thing will happen on Tuesday in just enough states for Trump to win. 
Pure hatred for Clinton and the pure hatred for the accelerating progressiveness of American society will ensure that, yes, someone like Donald J. Trump will occupy the same office of Washington, Lincoln, FDR, Kennedy, Reagan.  Horrifying, dumbfounding, and sad.

if people can't be bothered to elect a can of paint over one of the incarnations of the devil, then they deserve what they get.

[Admiral Yi]

I was prompted by Seeb's posts to wrack my brain to see if I could come up with a person who disagreed with or criticized Trump who Trump in turn did not insult, mock, or ridicule.

I did manage to come up with one: Mike Pence. 

[CountDeMoney]

I was prompted by Seeb's posts to wrack my brain to see if I could come up with a person who disagreed with or criticized Trump who Trump in turn did not insult, mock, or ridicule.

I did manage to come up with one: Mike Pence. 

What amazes me is how the worst of his bullying is constantly reinforced.  Look at Cruz;  primary opponents, Trump goes after him at such a personal level, from accusing his father of being involved in the JFK assassination to posting my-wife-is-hotter-than-yours Twitter posts.

You're punk ass little bitch, and I can treat you like a little bitch, but you'll support me in the end.  Because you're my bitch.   And he's right.

From the Chris Christie hostage video to Cruz, to the rest of his GOP prison bitches in betweeen, it's amazing how the shittiest aspects of his personality are constantly reinforced, which in turn makes him justified to be even shittier.

[crazy canuck]

I don't want to tempt fate.  I have experienced a recent Provincial election here that was badly misjudged by the pollsters.