Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

I don't have the required mastery of EU process to know whether this is accurate or not, but I've seen someone claim that the only reason Hungary isn't sanctioned and has their vote removed (and thus unable to block the support for Ukraine) is because Poland is protecting them.  Furthermore, the argument went, that means it is Poland and Hungary who are responsible for this blockage because Poland is enabling Hungary.

[Sheilbh]

I don't have the required mastery of EU process to know whether this is accurate or not, but I've seen someone claim that the only reason Hungary isn't sanctioned and has their vote removed (and thus unable to block the support for Ukraine) is because Poland is protecting them.  Furthermore, the argument went, that means it is Poland and Hungary who are responsible for this blockage because Poland is enabling Hungary.

I always think there's a little bit of scapegoating/covering for a strategic error by the EU there.

To suspend a member state there's three stages and one of the requires unanimity in the European Council - but because it is a Council decision we have no idea what's going on. I don't know if the war has changed the situation but pre-war no CEE state was indicating support and France and Germany were also proposing many legally unnecessary stages. As ever with the Council there's a bit of reading the tea leaves and I think it's probably fair that you've got the Dutch on one side who want to push ahead and the Poles on the other who don't - and both say so publicly. But there's a lot of member states who either don't say anything or propose new stages of negotiations instead.

Strategically I think, assuming there was ever an intention to actually suspend Hungary, the EU made a huge mistake in pairing Hungary and Poland. It requires unanimity, so if you put them as a pair  and positioning them as two parts of the same issue you're never going to get unanimity. If I was being cynical I would say that pairing them is maybe a way of making a show of caring about the rule of law issues without actually creating the risk of having to suspend a member state. More generously it was maybe seen as more politically palatable to not be seen to single out a member state - of course any suspension is, by definition, going to single out a member state.

I think together those suggest to me a bit of a general institutional reluctance to actually cross the rubicon of suspending a member state (but perhaps also a desire to blame someone else ). In a way it reminds me of Greece in the Eurozone crisis. There's lots of frustration (but not much light) in the Council and a general view that things would be a lot easier if they weren't in the club, combined with a general unwillingness to actually force anyone out against their will.

[Legbiter]

I mean, why? At this point, the only thing they're achieveing is pissing off Poland, who's their major ally inside the EU (yes, I'm aware that push comes to shove, they'll still support each other). Unless Putin has Kompromat on Orbán, all of this seems pointless self-defeating posturing.

They're choosing to stay locked into a 15 year old energy contract plus there is a lot of murky dealings between the two countries.

Still they're not exactly on Putin's side, even Hitler had more allies back in the day. The Russians are kinda like Napoleon against the Sixth Coalition. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

Some of the countries that would be allies of Putin in this are kept away because they view it as just a colossal fuckup.

Belarus is basically a vassal state and even they have resisted being fully drawn into it. China clearly is torn between wanting to help its little buddy against the West, but also the fact China's own narratives around Taiwan are somewhat undermined by what Putin is trying to do, and China also recognizes this is as big clusterfuck very stupid decision by Putin to get into this mess.

[Habbaku]

Hungary has also repeatedly criticised EU sanctions against Russia, which all 27 EU countries must also unanimously approve...

Love that if we just wait long enough, Europe will reinvent Liberum Veto.

[Hamilcar]

Some of the countries that would be allies of Putin in this are kept away because they view it as just a colossal fuckup.

Belarus is basically a vassal state and even they have resisted being fully drawn into it. China clearly is torn between wanting to help its little buddy against the West, but also the fact China's own narratives around Taiwan are somewhat undermined by what Putin is trying to do, and China also recognizes this is as big clusterfuck very stupid decision by Putin to get into this mess.

You have to give Mr Potato some credit for playing Putin this long. Even with his country semi occupied, he kept finding reasons not to join Putin's idiotic war.

[The Minsky Moment]

I've said it before but I think France might be the most under-rated/under the radar supporter of Ukraine. Given the equipment we know and the way Ukrainian officials talk about it I think they're a very significant backer, but they don't make almost any of it public. Not fully sure why.

Because even though they support Ukraine in the war, they want to retain some optionality and at least the perception of flexibility with Russia.  Partially because of the instinctual reflex to keep the Russian pieces on the European board for diplomatic advantage, partially to position themselves to do business there once the sanctions regime relaxes.

[OttoVonBismarck]

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-743216

Russian T-72 will split US-made Abrams 'like nuts' entering Kyiv - Kadyrov
Russian Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said that the Abrams was like a children's pedal car, and that the improved version of the T-72 was "real power."

By MICHAEL STARR Published: MAY 16, 2023 14:36

Russian Chechen Republic leader Ramzan Kadyrov asserted the superiority of upgraded Russian T-72 main battle tanks (MBT) to the US M1 Abrams on Tuesday, after a Monday announcement that Ukrainian soldiers were to soon train on the American MBT.

Kadyrov said that the Abrams was like a children's pedal car, and that the improved version of the T-72 was "real power."

The T-72 "surpasses foreign equipment in combat power, control, protection and ease of use. With it, any attack is like fishing on a yacht – a pleasure!" Kadyrov wrote on Telegram, alongside a video of him riding in the armored vehicle's turret.

"On such a tank we will enter Kyiv and carry out denazification, simultaneously splitting the Abrams like nuts! "

Ukrainian troops training on tanks
Pentagon Press Secretary Brig.-Gen. Pat Ryder announced in a briefing on Monday that Ukrainian soldiers were to begin training on 31 tanks in Germany. 

"I can confirm that the 31 M1 Abrams training tanks have arrived at Grafenwoehr, Germany in preparation for subsequent training of Ukrainian tank crews," said Ryder.

"Those crews are expected to arrive and begin training within the next couple of weeks. As we've discussed previously, this extensive training program for Ukrainian crews and maintainers is intended to prepare them for their critical roles ahead in effectively operating the M1 tank and defending Ukrainian people."

[Josquius]

31

More abrams donations planned?

[Hamilcar]

Russian T-72 will split US-made Abrams 'like nuts' entering Kyiv - Kadyrov

I look forward to the evidence on Tiktok.

[Hamilcar]

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1659251593890365474?s=20

The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that an embezzlement investigation concerning the installation of software for ballistic missile and cruise missile detection radars has spawned another major investigation relating to corruption in the construction of the NDCC.

tl;dr Russia is exploring new depths of corruption.

[Jacob]

It continues to amaze how corruption and embezzlement is such a problem in a power structure built entirely on corruption and embezzlement 

[Hamilcar]

It continues to amaze how corruption and embezzlement is such a problem in a power structure built entirely on corruption and embezzlement 

I remember when the Ukrainians shot down some super modern Sukhoi jet, they found a commercial satnav system. The cream of the Russian air force had to use a car GPS to find their targets.

[Sheilbh]

Isn't that how they were able to so effectively target soldiers in the early days - none of their comms equipment worked so they were just getting a new sim on the frontline?

[DGuller]

I wonder if these corruption investigations will finally spur everyone under Putin to coup him.  It's one thing for corruption investigations to be targeted, everyone knows what it takes to avoid being targeted.  It's another thing when investigators are legitimately trying to uncover corruption, no one in Russian government is safe from that.