Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

The Russians won't have to invade Belarus to occupy it, they're already in it, they'll just have to order 66 it.  It would be more like Crimea, where the Russian military was already stationed on its territory, and so it could establish fait accompli before anyone had time to react.

[grumbler]

It would be interesting to see the reaction of Ukraine's closest supporting countries if Belarus, essentially, declared war on Ukraine.  Why would Poland, for instance, not send troops to support Ukraine just as Belarus was doing for Russia? 

Involving Belarus would seem to create more problems for Russia than it would solve.

[Razgovory]

The Russians won't have to invade Belarus to occupy it, they're already in it, they'll just have to order 66 it.  It would be more like Crimea, where the Russian military was already stationed on its territory, and so it could establish fait accompli before anyone had time to react.

Hmm, I found an NPR report that says 10,000 Russian troops in Belarus now.  Belarus has 48,000 soldiers and 12,000 border guard.  That could be enough to seize the country if the Belarussians do nothing.  On the other hand, I doubt the Belarussians trust Putin and probably keep an eye on the Russians.  Seems like the Russians could take over if there is enough support in the Belarussian military.

Taking over Belarus would only be a good idea in case the regime was collapsing, even then it would be risky.  Putin doesn't need another front.

[Jacob]

Yeah that was their play in Ukraine too, wasn't it? Assuming that the power structures would just come over to Russia once the troops rolled in.

If it wasn't so tragic in terms of human lives and misery it would be funny if Putin tried the same thing in Belarus and got the same result.

[Josquius]

Belarus though seems more akin to Ukraine several years before euromaiden.

[Admiral Yi]

Belarus though seems more akin to Ukraine several years before euromaiden.

That's stretching things.  Before the Maiden Ukraine cycled through presidents that tilted Russian and presidents that tilted West.

[Legbiter]

The Russians won't have to invade Belarus to occupy it, they're already in it, they'll just have to order 66 it.  It would be more like Crimea, where the Russian military was already stationed on its territory, and so it could establish fait accompli before anyone had time to react.

Putin is dumb and hapless enough to try it, yeah. But holding down Belarus would require combat power I'm not sure he has available right now.

Poles and the Balts would fund an insurgency inside the country...

[Tamas]

Do we even know if the Belarus military isn't pro-Russian? Decades of Russian influence and vassalage is more than enough. Plus the leadership there must be all Lukashenka appointments, they may not like their survival odds if there's a proper regime change.  In 1956 the Hungarian army remained neutral, effectively - they stood aside in many cases and let the rebels rob weapon stockpiles etc but they remained in their barracks while the Soviets crushed the revolution.

[Josquius]

Do we even know if the Belarus military isn't pro-Russian? Decades of Russian influence and vassalage is more than enough. Plus the leadership there must be all Lukashenka appointments, they may not like their survival odds if there's a proper regime change.  In 1956 the Hungarian army remained neutral, effectively - they stood aside in many cases and let the rebels rob weapon stockpiles etc but they remained in their barracks while the Soviets crushed the revolution.

Pretty sure I do remember some rumblings months ago when it was talked about Belarus joining the war that they said they wouldn't fight the Ukrainians.

[Tonitrus]

Indeed...the KGB/security apparatus at least was all-in in repressing the demonstrations after the last election.  Holding up the current state of affairs (even if that means putting in Lukashenko's son or some other patsy), or inviting the Russians, would almost be essential to self preservation.

Not sure how much the military was involved in holding down the demonstrators...but Belarus military is relatively small...and as said, the leadership is likely mostly aligned with the security services.

But then, as is almost always the case with revolutions or extreme changes in government...very hard to foresee what will actually happen.

[Legbiter]

Do we even know if the Belarus military isn't pro-Russian? Decades of Russian influence and vassalage is more than enough. Plus the leadership there must be all Lukashenka appointments, they may not like their survival odds if there's a proper regime change.  In 1956 the Hungarian army remained neutral, effectively - they stood aside in many cases and let the rebels rob weapon stockpiles etc but they remained in their barracks while the Soviets crushed the revolution.

Yeah if Putin can spare 17 divisions to hold down Belarus if it tries to defect then it's not an issue for Russia. They'll get the 1956 treatment. 

[grumbler]

Even if the Belarus military is aligned with the security services, they know the risk of calling on soldiers to fire on their own people.  If the soldiers decide they don't want to kill their own families, they will be guilty of mutiny... unless they really mutiny and turn on their own officers and commanders.

Before an officer corps orders its soldiers to shoot, it has to know that the order will be obeyed, and I don't see how that is possible in this case.

[Tonitrus]

The security services already did just fine with clubbing/arresting.  A Russian takeover may be on a different level, but perhaps not much of one.  It will perhaps depend on whether a local leader comes out as a viable successor to Lukashenko, that Putin is acceptable with (the most likely scenario), or if Putin decides that will be him.

[Legbiter]

Ukrainians seem to continue chewing up the vatnik flanks around Bakhmut. Gaining in days what took the Russians months of grinding human waves to capture. Plus, it forces the vatniks to throw in their reserves to try and stabilize the situation. Reserves that will be badly missed elsewhere on the front.

[Hamilcar]

The psyops are getting spicy. Now there are reports that Prigozhin offered to give Ukraine the locations of Russian troops.