Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

Yes. It's quite good. Less good is the Belgorod is Ukraine stuff. It's not always obvious it's meantironically.

I think it's meant to show that Ukraine has as much claim to Belgorod/Bilhorod as Russia does to various Ukrainian territories - which is to a say a tiny amount, but not really.

[Tamas]

The exiled Russian Youtuber I listen to thinks the Belgorod incident (which can still be ongoing as far they know) is an important one, for exposing the weakness of the Russian military (this chaos happens because of a raid across the border, what will happen once the Western-armed and trained Ukrainian main forces come through?) as well as showcasing the dysfunctionality of Russian propaganda and how the system works. First silence, then continued versions of BS, which ultimately just make the event worse for the regime because the lack of information is being filled by rumours and people's fears.

He also highlighted how Russians have heard nothing the past 15 months than a string of victories. First a victory in Kiev in March last year, then Kharkov in September (the always planned and very well executed withdrawal), then the great success of the Kherson withdrawal, and then the 4 separate victories so far in Bahkmut. And now the latest victory welcomed: the well-planned trapping of Ukrainians in Belgorod, Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOpxPsF3Aa8

[Iormlund]

There's also action in other sectors of the border (Kursk). Russian officials are saying there are artillery exchanges that locals have mistaken for gunfire.

[Sheilbh]

In addition to Kursk, Strelkov is saying there's incursions into two other villages in Belgorod. It doesn't sound like the Russians have destroyed any force, but rather that they're playing whackamole.

If Russia feels like they need to have troops on their border with Ukraine then, from what I've read, the front line (for Russia) has effectively doubled.

[Barrister]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1660918473914982400

Interview of representative of the Freedom for Russia Legion, saying they were invited in by residents of Belgorod in order to provide peacekeeping.



It's pure trolling and I love it!

[DGuller]

Maybe this is HOI4 player in me talking, but sometimes I do wonder why China wouldn't consider stabbing Russia in the back.  Sure, Russia is a nuclear power, but so is the West, and yet they're still gearing up for potential war with the West after an attack on Taiwan.  Wouldn't it be easier to pick on a barely living corpse of Russia instead?  You don't need to make a naval landing, clearly you don't have much to be scared of when it comes to conventional forces, and your enemy is an outcast on the world stage.

[Jacob]

Xi gets more victory points from taking Taiwan than from grabbing assorted Central Asian resource centres.

[Barrister]

Maybe this is HOI4 player in me talking, but sometimes I do wonder why China wouldn't consider stabbing Russia in the back.  Sure, Russia is a nuclear power, but so is the West, and yet they're still gearing up for potential war with the West after an attack on Taiwan.  Wouldn't it be easier to pick on a barely living corpse of Russia instead?  You don't need to make a naval landing, clearly you don't have much to be scared of when it comes to conventional forces, and your enemy is an outcast on the world stage.

No CB - the badboy points would be too damaging. (to mix my Paradox metaphors)

[HVC]

Why take by force what he can have effective control of at a discount (At least for the next few decades)

[Sheilbh]

Xi gets more victory points from taking Taiwan than from grabbing assorted Central Asian resource centres.

Also Xi hosted Central Asian leaders at a Tang dynasty themed receptions in Xi'an (start of the silk road):


I'm not sure China can't walk and chew gum at the same time. Russia's invaded a country and is failing so Central Asian states can't play the game of trying to balance between China and Russia - and Chinia knows it.

[The Minsky Moment]

Why take by force what he can have effective control of at a discount (At least for the next few decades)

This

[Josquius]

Maybe this is HOI4 player in me talking, but sometimes I do wonder why China wouldn't consider stabbing Russia in the back.  Sure, Russia is a nuclear power, but so is the West, and yet they're still gearing up for potential war with the West after an attack on Taiwan.  Wouldn't it be easier to pick on a barely living corpse of Russia instead?  You don't need to make a naval landing, clearly you don't have much to be scared of when it comes to conventional forces, and your enemy is an outcast on the world stage.

In the real world power and wealth doesn't come in painting the map your colour.
They figure they can dominate and exploit Asian Russia without having to spend anything in conquering or governing it.

[DGuller]

Alliances can end rather abruptly.  Facts on the ground in the form of ownership of territory can take generations to change. 

[Josquius]

Alliances can end rather abruptly.  Facts on the ground in the form of ownership of territory can take generations to change. 

Sure. And if Russia decides to nationalise all these chinese owned businesses then that gives China the CB it hopes it never needs but will use if pushed to it.

Though I will say there's a bit more to it when it comes to the south eastern lands formerly owned by China. I'd imagine there's more interest from China in grabbing those. Much like Taiwan less for practical reasons than dick waving.

[viper37]

Putin claimed a 400-year-old map proved Ukraine isn't a real country, not noticing it has 'Ukraine' written on it

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said an old map proves Ukraine isn't a real country. 
• But the document in fact shows the area near Kyiv labeled as "Ukraine."
• Putin has cited his much-criticized belief Ukraine isn't a real country in justifying Russia's invasion. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin Tuesday cited a 17th-Century map of Europe to back his discredited thesis that Ukraine isn't a real country, a claim that he's used to justify Russia's unprovoked invasion.
But, even on the terms of Putin's thesis, there was a problem: the document clearly marks part of the territory as being "Ukraine."

In a meeting with the chairman of Russia's constitutional court, Valery Zorkin, the two pored over a map made by a 17th century cartographer for France's King Louis XIV.

The Kremlin published a video of the encounter, in which Putin and Zorkin hold the map up as proof that a Ukrainian nation is a historical fiction.
[...]