Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

I rather enjoy the "local freedom fighters with combat vehicles from the shed" shtick used against the Russians.

[Josquius]

Yes. It's quite good. Less good is the Belgorod is Ukraine stuff. It's not always obvious it's meantironically.

[Admiral Yi]

Assuming they are Russian citizens it seems pretty irresponsible to me.  Surely anyone captured faces a pretty grim fate, worse than if they were Ukrainian.

[Sheilbh]

Yes. I think it is probably simultaneously a well thought through, and a meme-ish act of military trolling. I think this is part of the information space in the modern world.

But I think that's not the strategic goal (I know nothing) it feels, instead, like everything the Ukrainians are doing right now feels like it's aimed at forcing the Russians to make choices. Which I suspect is the strategic goal.

[Josquius]

It seems a very sensible strategic move to me.
A huge gamble in escalating, potentially pissing off the west, giving Putin's propaganda of Russia under attack some legs, etc...
But making it so that its not just Ukraine having to guard such a huge border and forcing Russia to direct troops up there too- both practically and to show the population that they're there for civilians... Very clever.

Though Belarus would perhaps be better- striking over near Brest would be interesting.

[The Brain]

Demonstrating Russian weakness is generally a good move I think.

[Jacob]

Demonstrating Russian weakness is generally a good move I think.

Yeah I think that's the key part.

[Grey Fox]

Ukraine wins by escalating everything until Russia is face with only 2 choices : Go nuclear or retreat from Ukraine.

[The Brain]

Ukraine wins by escalating everything until Russia is face with only 2 choices : Go nuclear or retreat from Ukraine.

Indeed, if everything goes well the Russian government will be forced to make that choice, regardless of how cautiously you got there. That's the reason I don't think fear of escalation is a very meaningful consideration.

[Legbiter]

I rather enjoy the "local freedom fighters with combat vehicles from the shed" shtick used against the Russians.

Ukraine is so far neutral on the Belgorod republic situation but if the violence continues to escalate a peace keeping mission might be inevitable. 

[PDH]

I saw we call in NATO peacekeepers to the Belgorod.

[DGuller]

All memes aside, from what I'm reading, militarily this could be a disaster.  Russians are claiming that the units inside Russia are encircled.  Of course one should never trust Russia, but given the nature of the raid, this seems like a realistic possibility.  Would it still be a worthwhile stunt if all those taking part in the incursion are wiped out?

[Sheilbh]

All memes aside, from what I'm reading, militarily this could be a disaster.  Russians are claiming that the units inside Russia are encircled.  Of course one should never trust Russia, but given the nature of the raid, this seems like a realistic possibility.  Would it still be a worthwhile stunt if all those taking part in the incursion are wiped out?

I would take that with a large pinch of salt. Yesterday the Russians were denying anything was happening and then said it was an operation to lure Ukrainian forces into a trap - this sounds like a development on that second narrative.

On worth, surely it depends on the purpose and result?

I don't think the goal was to seize or hold territory or provoke some general uprising. My suspicion (again, I know nothing) is that there were two goals.

One was the information war - it was an act of trolling/propaganda/memes but primarily aimed within Russia particularly highlighting vulnerabilities and heightening insecurity. This is obviously part of HUR and Budanov's general approach - there's also been the drone in Moscow, derailment of freight trains and unconfirmed (but presumed Ukrainian) murders/bomb attacks on some figures in Russia, Budanov has owned up to assasinations carried out "by citizens of the Russian Federation".

The second is more basic - if Russia feels a need to send troops to reinforce a quiescent border to prevent re-occurence of this type of situation, those are troops (and logistical support/material etc or even just reconnaissance) that are not on the front line for Ukraine's counter-offensive.

I think there is a question about Budanov and HUR's role (he is said to have political ambitions) as there are a couple of instances where what he's saying contradicts Zelensky's message. Reportedly the Americans talked him down from this sort of attack on 24 February - it may be that he's convinced them. Either way it doesn't seem necessarily great that the Americans are negotiating directly with an intelligence chief in Ukraine (shouldn't an order from Zelensky suffice?). On the other hand this may be part of a general good cop/bad cop routine that's strategic and coordinated with Zelensky. I think that's definitely an act Zelensky's running elsewhere.

I think the information war stuff is difficult to assess what is the cost/benefit of that - as it's probably always been in wars. If it results in Russia having to divert attention, troops, resources to a border that isn't going to be invaded but is at risk of humiliating stunts all over social media then I think there is probably a more direct (and grim) cost benefit of lives that the Ukrainian military can run - again probably always the case in wars. In both cases tougher to assess from the outside from what we know but I think if it results in any movement of forces or resources from the front line within Ukraine to guarding Russian territory, my suspicion is that'll be seen as probably worthwhile (it doesn't look like Ukraine's committed many troops to this).

[Legbiter]

All memes aside, from what I'm reading, militarily this could be a disaster.  Russians are claiming that the units inside Russia are encircled.  Of course one should never trust Russia, but given the nature of the raid, this seems like a realistic possibility.  Would it still be a worthwhile stunt if all those taking part in the incursion are wiped out?

In a raid like this the attacking force retreats back into Ukraine after a couple of days.

[Jacob]

All memes aside, from what I'm reading, militarily this could be a disaster.  Russians are claiming that the units inside Russia are encircled.  Of course one should never trust Russia, but given the nature of the raid, this seems like a realistic possibility.  Would it still be a worthwhile stunt if all those taking part in the incursion are wiped out?

A few different thoughts:

1) Russians claim all sorts of things, for all sorts of reasons. It could be true that the raiders are encircled, but I'd wait for more than Russian claims.

2) Depending on the amount of resources it's taking for the Putinists to (allegedly) encircle the Free Russians, it may still be an advantageous exchange.

3) Encircled != lost. Who knows how long the Free Russians can hold out if they're encircled, and who knows how many resources the Putinists will have to expend in order to win.

4) Even if the Putinists kill, capture, or expel the Free Russians they now have a much larger area of worry. How many other forces do the Free Russians have available? Where else might they strike? What forces will have to be reallocated from the fronts in Ukraine to guard the rear areas against future incursions?

5) A noble defeat can become a rallying cry. Pearse and the Free Irish lost at the Dublin Post Office during the Easter Rising in 1916, but ultimately Ireland got its independence.

6) The attack itself - whatever the outcome - could still chip away at Putin's (already somewhat worn) aura of invincibility. It could be another straw on the camel's back.

I have no particular inisght into the situation in Belgorod, nor do I have any hunch as to whether everyone involved in the action will be wiped out (a possible outcome, but still hypothetical at this point). But even if they are, the larger impact will take some time to discern.