[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

I don't think that is that significant of a shift. It just means the Conservatives have been in power too long and the Liberals are screwing up their chance.

Then a little history lesson is in order.  From the time Canada has been formed the Conservatives and Liberals have traded voters to deal with the "in power too long" problem.  Ever since the NDP have been formed they have only attracted their core vote.  ie the shift of voters from Conservatives to Liberals and back again has not been impacted by the NDP.  For the first time voters are leaving the Conservatives and rather than the Liberal numbers increasing the NDP numbers are increasing.

That is a very fundamental shift in Canadian politics.

[Barrister]

I don't think that is that significant of a shift. It just means the Conservatives have been in power too long and the Liberals are screwing up their chance.

Then a little history lesson is in order.  From the time Canada has been formed the Conservatives and Liberals have traded voters to deal with the "in power too long" problem.  Ever since the NDP have been formed they have only attracted their core vote.  ie the shift of voters from Conservatives to Liberals and back again has not been impacted by the NDP.  For the first time voters are leaving the Conservatives and rather than the Liberal numbers increasing the NDP numbers are increasing.

That is a very fundamental shift in Canadian politics.

The NDP has lead the national polls in the past.

Wait till votes are actually cast before talking about "fundamental shifts".

[Valmy]

That is a very fundamental shift in Canadian politics.

It could be. Or it just could be everybody moving over from the Liberals to the NDP a la everybody going from the Liberals to Labour in the UK. Same basic people, different name.

[crazy canuck]

That is a very fundamental shift in Canadian politics.

It could be. Or it just could be everybody moving over from the Liberals to the NDP a la everybody going from the Liberals to Labour in the UK. Same basic people, different name.

Except the Conservative numbers have dropped.  Not just the liberal numbers so that analysis doesn't work.

@BB, same comment.  In the late 80s, the only other time the NDP have led in the polls, it was entirely at the expense of the Liberals.   So more along the lines of what Valmy is talking about and what Josephus dreads.  The Liberals were able to take back enough of that support from the NDP and the Conservatives numbers remained strong.

[crazy canuck]

Wait till votes are actually cast before talking about "fundamental shifts".

I guess you have already repressed who the governing party in Alberta is. 

[Valmy]

Except the Conservative numbers have dropped.  Not just the liberal numbers so that analysis doesn't work.

Nonsense it is totally expected. Conservative numbers are dropping because they have been in power too long and are becoming corrupt. Before all these people would turn around and vote Liberal but that party is imploding so they are going to the new one.

[crazy canuck]

Except the Conservative numbers have dropped.  Not just the liberal numbers so that analysis doesn't work.

Nonsense it is totally expected. Conservative numbers are dropping because they have been in power too long and are becoming corrupt. Before all these people would turn around and vote Liberal but that party is imploding so they are going to the new one.

Then aren't you just agreeing with me 

[Valmy]

Then aren't you just agreeing with me 

Maybe so

[crazy canuck]

Glad we settled that then.

[Valmy]

Glad we settled that then.

Well then explain why what I said resulted in you claiming my analysis didn't work.

If I was saying the same thing as you were does that not damn yourself?

[Malthus]

Glad we settled that then.

Well then explain why what I said resulted in you claiming my analysis didn't work.

If I was saying the same thing as you were does that not damn yourself?

The issue is whether them all going to the NDP really represents a revolution in politics or not.

Federally, Canadian politics was traditionally a Kang vs. Kodos affair, much like US politics ... the difference being that the NDP was rather more significant than any third party that has existed in the US for decades. This was true even when the ruling party totally imploded, like the cons did last 'cycle'.

Another differenceit seems is that Canadian voters identify their personal position much less strongly with a political party than US voters do. While some folks hate (HATE) certain political figures, there is much less of this notion that people are either Republicans or Democrats and never the twain shall meet - lots of people bounce around with the greatest of ease between voting for various parties.

[Josephus]

It may not be enough for the Libs OR the NDP to form a gov't...BUT it might, hopefully, be enough to stop Harper from getting a majority. In which case, I think, this time the Libs and NDP may form a coalition. And I think the first order of business is to to reform the first-past-the-post system, which could be a doomsday scenario for the Cons moving forward.


But it is early.

[Admiral Yi]

Another differenceit seems is that Canadian voters identify their personal position much less strongly with a political party than US voters do. While some folks hate (HATE) certain political figures, there is much less of this notion that people are either Republicans or Democrats and never the twain shall meet - lots of people bounce around with the greatest of ease between voting for various parties.

That's not the impression I get from this thread.

[viper37]

Except the Conservative numbers have dropped.  Not just the liberal numbers so that analysis doesn't work.

Nonsense it is totally expected. Conservative numbers are dropping because they have been in power too long and are becoming corrupt. Before all these people would turn around and vote Liberal but that party is imploding so they are going to the new one.

they aren't exactly becoming corrupt, but it's like they're trying to please that very tiny minority of Canadians who supports them no matter what, rather than conciliating our differences.

[Malthus]

Another differenceit seems is that Canadian voters identify their personal position much less strongly with a political party than US voters do. While some folks hate (HATE) certain political figures, there is much less of this notion that people are either Republicans or Democrats and never the twain shall meet - lots of people bounce around with the greatest of ease between voting for various parties.

That's not the impression I get from this thread.

Really? In my time, I've considered voting for all three parties in various elections. I know I'm not totally unusual in this.