[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

Glad we settled that then.

Well then explain why what I said resulted in you claiming my analysis didn't work.

If I was saying the same thing as you were does that not damn yourself?

I am not sure what you are not understanding.  You said, "Or it just could be everybody moving over from the Liberals to the NDP a la everybody going from the Liberals to Labour in the UK. Same basic people, different name." 

I have tried to point out it is not the same at all because it is not just people moving over "from the LIberals".  The significant point you are missing is that it is people moving over from the Conservatives to the NDP.  If you look at the amount the NDP has gone up on the polls that is not accounted for by just the amount the Liberals have lost.  People who used to vote Conservative are obviously prepared to try the NDP rather than go with Justin.

That is a seismic shift in our politics.

As I tried to explain to you earlier, historically all those disaffected Conservative voters would have simply voted Liberal without giving the NDP a thought.

You seemed to understand the importance of that point when you said "Conservative numbers are dropping because they have been in power too long and are becoming corrupt. Before all these people would turn around and vote Liberal but that party is imploding so they are going to the new one."



But apparently you don't understand the full impact of what you wrote.

[crazy canuck]

Another differenceit seems is that Canadian voters identify their personal position much less strongly with a political party than US voters do. While some folks hate (HATE) certain political figures, there is much less of this notion that people are either Republicans or Democrats and never the twain shall meet - lots of people bounce around with the greatest of ease between voting for various parties.

That's not the impression I get from this thread.

Really? In my time, I've considered voting for all three parties in various elections. I know I'm not totally unusual in this.

I expect you are an outlier.  Or perhaps it is an Ontario thing. 

[Malthus]

Another differenceit seems is that Canadian voters identify their personal position much less strongly with a political party than US voters do. While some folks hate (HATE) certain political figures, there is much less of this notion that people are either Republicans or Democrats and never the twain shall meet - lots of people bounce around with the greatest of ease between voting for various parties.

That's not the impression I get from this thread.

Really? In my time, I've considered voting for all three parties in various elections. I know I'm not totally unusual in this.

I expect you are an outlier.  Or perhaps it is an Ontario thing.

What about you?

[crazy canuck]

Another differenceit seems is that Canadian voters identify their personal position much less strongly with a political party than US voters do. While some folks hate (HATE) certain political figures, there is much less of this notion that people are either Republicans or Democrats and never the twain shall meet - lots of people bounce around with the greatest of ease between voting for various parties.

That's not the impression I get from this thread.

Really? In my time, I've considered voting for all three parties in various elections. I know I'm not totally unusual in this.

I expect you are an outlier.  Or perhaps it is an Ontario thing.

What about you?

It would be very rare for anyone in the West and particularly here in BC where our politics are very polarized for a Conservative supporter to ever vote NDP.  Liberals maybe but not NDP.  I would say the same is true of the Maritime Provinces.  I can't speak for Quebec but I am not sure how many Conservative voters there are there in any event.

The big shocker was that the NDP made such huge gains in Alberta.  BB was prepared to bet the house that the NDP wouldn't win for a reason.

[Malthus]

Another differenceit seems is that Canadian voters identify their personal position much less strongly with a political party than US voters do. While some folks hate (HATE) certain political figures, there is much less of this notion that people are either Republicans or Democrats and never the twain shall meet - lots of people bounce around with the greatest of ease between voting for various parties.

That's not the impression I get from this thread.

Really? In my time, I've considered voting for all three parties in various elections. I know I'm not totally unusual in this.

I expect you are an outlier.  Or perhaps it is an Ontario thing.

What about you?

It would be very rare for anyone in the West and particularly here in BC where our politics are very polarized for a Conservative supporter to ever vote NDP.  Liberals maybe but not NDP.  I would say the same is true of the Maritime Provinces.  I can't speak for Quebec but I am not sure how many Conservative voters there are there in any event.

The big shocker was that the NDP made such huge gains in Alberta.  BB was prepared to bet the house that the NDP wouldn't win for a reason.

I mean, I get the impression from recent posts you would at least consider doing just that - switching from Conservative to NDP. Though I may be totally wrong on that!

Which is admittedly a big swing - but you have to admit, switching from Con to Lib isn't nearly as big a deal here in Canada as switching from R. to Dem. In Canada, such switches happen a lot.

[crazy canuck]

I mean, I get the impression from recent posts you would at least consider doing just that - switching from Conservative to NDP. Though I may be totally wrong on that!

Which is admittedly a big swing - but you have to admit, switching from Con to Lib isn't nearly as big a deal here in Canada as switching from R. to Dem. In Canada, such switches happen a lot.

And it is very painful for me.  Sorry Josephus 

In part I think about my own very difficult decision and the fact I am considering this as a possibility as part of the fundamental shift which is now occurring.  I am one of those who would have voted Liberal if they had a half decent leader.  But I cannot bring myself to vote for Justin under any circumstances.

I agree with you entirely that switching from Dem to Rep is not the same at all as switching from Lib to Con or the reverse.  Switching from Rep to Dem is more like switching from Con to NDP which is I think what we might be seeing.

[Malthus]

I mean, I get the impression from recent posts you would at least consider doing just that - switching from Conservative to NDP. Though I may be totally wrong on that!

Which is admittedly a big swing - but you have to admit, switching from Con to Lib isn't nearly as big a deal here in Canada as switching from R. to Dem. In Canada, such switches happen a lot.

And it is very painful for me.  Sorry Josephus 

I know exactly what you mean. 

For me personally, I gotta weigh personal well-being against good of the country as a whole. Also, foreign policy considerations.

It will be a difficult decision either way.

However, my point is this: if I am an "outlier", I'm not alone here in this thread - I know you have voted, or would seriously consider voting, for all three parties as well.

And I know several other people in the same boat - indeed, it may almost be characteristic of a certain type (urban, professional).

In part I think about my own very difficult decision and the fact I am considering this as a possibility as part of the fundamental shift which is now occurring.  I am one of those who would have voted Liberal if they had a half decent leader.  But I cannot bring myself to vote for Justin under any circumstances.

Yeah, I'm with you on that - or rather, the circumstances would have to be pretty extreme. I don't hate Justin, I just think he's a man badly out of his depth.

He's like the political version of the old joke: "how do you make a small fortune? Well, start by inheriting a big fortune ... "

I agree with you entirely that switching from Dem to Rep is not the same at all as switching from Lib to Con or the reverse.  Switching from Rep to Dem is more like switching from Con to NDP which is I think what we might be seeing.

Yep.

[Barrister]

Glad we settled that then.

Well then explain why what I said resulted in you claiming my analysis didn't work.

If I was saying the same thing as you were does that not damn yourself?

I am not sure what you are not understanding.  You said, "Or it just could be everybody moving over from the Liberals to the NDP a la everybody going from the Liberals to Labour in the UK. Same basic people, different name." 

I have tried to point out it is not the same at all because it is not just people moving over "from the LIberals".  The significant point you are missing is that it is people moving over from the Conservatives to the NDP.  If you look at the amount the NDP has gone up on the polls that is not accounted for by just the amount the Liberals have lost.  People who used to vote Conservative are obviously prepared to try the NDP rather than go with Justin.

That is a seismic shift in our politics.

As I tried to explain to you earlier, historically all those disaffected Conservative voters would have simply voted Liberal without giving the NDP a thought.

You seemed to understand the importance of that point when you said "Conservative numbers are dropping because they have been in power too long and are becoming corrupt. Before all these people would turn around and vote Liberal but that party is imploding so they are going to the new one."



But apparently you don't understand the full impact of what you wrote.

Conservative voters aren't leaving though.  Conservative support has been where it has been for the last few years - around 33%.

[crazy canuck]

Conservative voters aren't leaving though.  Conservative support has been where it has been for the last few years - around 33%.

Oh, I am probably leaving....

[Josephus]

I've switched between Libs and NDP depending on circumstance, riding and opportunity. At first, when Justin became leader, I was kind of enthusiastic, but that's faded pretty quickly. Once again, looks like I'll be voting orange.

[Barrister]

I've voted for many, many different parties over the years.  I've voted for the Reform Party, Canadian Alliance, Conservative Party, Manitoba PC Party, Manitoba Libertarian Party (the only vote I truly regret), Wildrose Party, Alberta PCs, Yukon Party...

As you can see I'm a very flexible voter.

[crazy canuck]

I've voted for many, many different parties over the years.  I've voted for the Reform Party, Canadian Alliance, Conservative Party, Manitoba PC Party, Manitoba Libertarian Party (the only vote I truly regret), Wildrose Party, Alberta PCs, Yukon Party...

As you can see I'm a very flexible voter.

[crazy canuck]

More on the NDP tax policy.

I listened to the Mulcair interview on the CBC.  He said two things that caught my attention.  First he said the NDP would not change personal income tax rates. 
The second is that he said the NDP would gradually increase corporate rates to the G7 average but would reduce income tax for small corporations.

The great irony is that I will probably get a tax break under the NDP plan. 

The other thing is he misquoted the current corporate tax rate.  he said it was about 12% when it is actually around 15%.  I read that the Conservatives are all over him because of this misstep.  But actually since he only proposes to increase the corporate tax rate to the average level, doesn't that mean the NDP will raise taxes less than was at first implied in the interview....

[Josephus]

The first time I voted I was 18. Voting day was the first day back to school, so I guess the Tuesday after Labour Day. I met up with some friends I hadn't seen in a while. We smoked pot. then I voted. I voted for the Communist party candidate.

[Valmy]

The Communists: If you vote for them you must be high.