Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Syt]

Probably. Vienna "only" has about 23% of Austria's population, 1/3 if you include the immediately adjacent districts.

[celedhring]

A bit of the same (not so extreme) happens in Spain, where overall population density belies the % of Spaniards living in cities. The Barcelona area has some of the most densely populated neighborhoods in Europe.

[Sheilbh]

8900 new cases in Israel yesterday, vs. Austria's ca. 900 - population is about equal in size in both countries, though density is a lot higher in Israel - 400per km² in Israel vs 109 in Austria.

It'd be really interesting to understand what happened with Israel, because they were really successful in the first wave.

[crazy canuck]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

Because they have the most people?

Difference in population doesn't provide a good explanation as to why their infections are going up and modelled to go higher while ours have levelled off and are modelled to go down. explanation.

Besides, Quebec isn't much more populous than BC, it just seems that way because of the glut of Parliamentary seats they are given. 

Quebec is the worst case.  It has 6x more daily infections and doesn't approach 2x our population.  Ontario is a bit better but their trend is the worrying thing.  They are currently at about 6x our number our number of infections with 3x our population but their modelling has them heading to 10x our number of infections (theirs is modelled to go up to 1000 cases a day while ours models cases going back below 100 per day).

I have not seen a good explanation for this divergence.

[DGuller]

8900 new cases in Israel yesterday, vs. Austria's ca. 900 - population is about equal in size in both countries, though density is a lot higher in Israel - 400per km² in Israel vs 109 in Austria.

It'd be really interesting to understand what happened with Israel, because they were really successful in the first wave.

Could be Jewish holidays which are a dime a dozen this time of the year.  In NYC there is a sharp uptick as well, concentrated in Jewish ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods.

[Sheilbh]

8900 new cases in Israel yesterday, vs. Austria's ca. 900 - population is about equal in size in both countries, though density is a lot higher in Israel - 400per km² in Israel vs 109 in Austria.

It'd be really interesting to understand what happened with Israel, because they were really successful in the first wave.

Could be Jewish holidays which are a dime a dozen this time of the year.  In NYC there is a sharp uptick as well, concentrated in Jewish ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods.

I think Israel actually went into national lockdown before the Jewish holidays because I think this wave started kicking off before then. But no doubt that's probably a driver.

[Grey Fox]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

Because they have the most people?

Difference in population doesn't provide a good explanation as to why their infections are going up and modelled to go higher while ours have levelled off and are modelled to go down. explanation.

Besides, Quebec isn't much more populous than BC, it just seems that way because of the glut of Parliamentary seats they are given. 

Quebec is the worst case.  It has 6x more daily infections and doesn't approach 2x our population.  Ontario is a bit better but their trend is the worrying thing.  They are currently at about 6x our number our number of infections with 3x our population but their modelling has them heading to 10x our number of infections (theirs is modelled to go up to 1000 cases a day while ours models cases going back below 100 per day).

I have not seen a good explanation for this divergence.

I don't think there is one. It might be climate related too.

[crazy canuck]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

Because they have the most people?

Difference in population doesn't provide a good explanation as to why their infections are going up and modelled to go higher while ours have levelled off and are modelled to go down. explanation.

Besides, Quebec isn't much more populous than BC, it just seems that way because of the glut of Parliamentary seats they are given. 

Quebec is the worst case.  It has 6x more daily infections and doesn't approach 2x our population.  Ontario is a bit better but their trend is the worrying thing.  They are currently at about 6x our number our number of infections with 3x our population but their modelling has them heading to 10x our number of infections (theirs is modelled to go up to 1000 cases a day while ours models cases going back below 100 per day).

I have not seen a good explanation for this divergence.

I don't think there is one. It might be climate related too.

Could be, it will be interesting to see what conclusions are made about the cause and more importantly how to deal with it.  If it is climate then your spike is a precursor to what we are going to experience in a month or so.

[viper37]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

while the first wave came mostly from outside the province (I think 247 different virus markers were found in a genetic study, or 247 different people introduced the virus- anyway, read below*), this one is entirely on us.

I think my government hasn't had a strong response to delinquants.  I may not entirely be yet convinced by the real life usefulness of the mask, but once the government has decided it's one tool among others to be used, it should be heavily enforced, like all measures. 

They only now started with a 1000$ fine for people who breach the rules on private parties (10 people max before, now in organge (2nd worst alert level behind red) areas 6 from no more than 2 different families (as in "houses"); in red zones it's no visitors except 1 for compassionate care, like delivering groceries for your elederly parent)) and it's too little, too late, the damage is done

It should have been 5-6000$ fine since August.  There would have been non 100 students party then. 

The virus has re-entered the elderly's homes, since we do not have sufficient staff yet (we're still on a shortage of nurses) to avoid moving nurses between places.  It's going to get worst before it gets better.
The ofificial word is that private parties/family gathering are the problems, and it seems people all accross the province aren't disciplined enough.

Aside that, I do not know what is happening.  there were a few cases in a few bars, but nothing that appeared to be major.  But then it suddenly flared up.  Maybe the colder wheater of september is making it worst (it was quite chilly, except for the last week)?  The lack of vitamin D (there was a study on this possibility last spring, I've lost track of these research) due to less hours of daylight?  I guess we are totally blind.  I'm still mad at the fucking idiots who attended a party in my hometown while having symptoms of the disease.  I wish I knew who they were.  I can't say what I'd do to them because we have a crown prosecutor amongst us... 


FFS, we had one death early on, one of my neighbours, an handful of cases.  Now, it's in schools, in workplaces, in hospitals and retirement home.  At least 2 more deceased as of last week, but I've lost track of the count.  There's a rapid increase in patients needing critical care, but hopefully, with better meds, we can avoid the worst

I raged quit FB for a few days before I went in person to knock some sense in some stupid morons.


*Link to study

[viper37]

A must-read for everyone in this thread:
k: the overlooked variable

By now many people have heard about R0—the basic reproductive number of a pathogen, a measure of its contagiousness on average. But unless you've been reading scientific journals, you're less likely to have encountered k, the measure of its dispersion. The definition of k is a mouthful, but it's simply a way of asking whether a virus spreads in a steady manner or in big bursts, whereby one person infects many, all at once. After nine months of collecting epidemiological data, we know that this is an overdispersed pathogen, meaning that it tends to spread in clusters, but this knowledge has not yet fully entered our way of thinking about the pandemic—or our preventive practices.

[...]

This kind of behavior, alternating between being super infectious and fairly noninfectious, is exactly what k captures, and what focusing solely on R hides. Samuel Scarpino, an assistant professor of epidemiology and complex systems at Northeastern, told me that this has been a huge challenge, especially for health authorities in Western societies, where the pandemic playbook was geared toward the flu—and not without reason, because pandemic flu is a genuine threat. However, influenza does not have the same level of clustering behavior.

[PDH]

8900 new cases in Israel yesterday, vs. Austria's ca. 900 - population is about equal in size in both countries, though density is a lot higher in Israel - 400per km² in Israel vs 109 in Austria.

It'd be really interesting to understand what happened with Israel, because they were really successful in the first wave.

Vigilance leads to apathy.

[merithyn]

My friend was exposed to COVID so is now on a 14-day lockdown. She'll be tested on the 14th day, then sent back to work after the results are in, assuming she's clear. Since she has five roommates, three of whom are "essential workers", she's confined to her bedroom for the duration.

She's not best pleased.

[Zanza]

Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!

He has quite a few of the risk factors...

[Syt]

Couldn't have happened to a nicer person.

[Eddie Teach]

Kim Jong Un maybe.