Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Eddie Teach]

I will keep ignoring the Cycling lover hatred for motorsports. I will keep ignoring the Cycling lover hatred for motorsports.I will keep ignoring the Cycling lover hatred for motorsports.I will keep ignoring the Cycling lover hatred for motorsports.I will keep ignoring the Cycling lover hatred for motorsports.

Both are boring AF.

[crazy canuck]

I've played poker with DGuller. Trust me, you don't want to play poker with DGuller.

He's a crier, huh?

It is hard to play poker solo.

[crazy canuck]

You people are either degenerates or monsters. I can't decide.

Why not both?

[Sheilbh]

Really interesting ONS survey data on the second wave (they randomly test thousands to form an assessment of the prevalence and the survey is, like their other work, designed to be representative).

People who went overseas for holiday seem to be experiencing a large increase (and already had a higher infection rate):


This also seems to show up in the deprivation profile - basically it's the least deprived driving this wave


I feel the people who've had 21+ contacts need to take a long hard look at themselves


Surprisingly, working location doesn't seem like a big issue:

[Tamas]

I'd wager that those who opted for  foreign holiday in the midst of a global pandemic were not too concerned to distance themselves from possible infection, so hopefully a dirty foreigners infecting Brits narrative will not emerge.


In other news, Boris Johnson could not clarify his government's new NE England lockdown rules when asked, had to clarify later via Twitter. Basically he was asked if people can meet in pub gardens. The actual answer is that yes but actually no. It is not against the law to meet in a pub garden (although it IS to meet indoors in the pub) but it is requested that people do not do so. Clear as mud.

[Sheilbh]

In other news, Boris Johnson could not clarify his government's new NE England lockdown rules when asked, had to clarify later via Twitter. Basically he was asked if people can meet in pub gardens. The actual answer is that yes but actually no. It is not against the law to meet in a pub garden (although it IS to meet indoors in the pub) but it is requested that people do not do so. Clear as mud.

His style does not work for public health messages where you need absolute clarity, it's ridiculous. They have now clarified:

Boris Johnson
@BorisJohnson
In the North East, new rules mean you cannot meet people from different households in social settings indoors, including in pubs, restaurants and your home. You should also avoid socialising with other households outside. (1/2)
This is vital to control the spread of coronavirus and keep everyone safe. If you are in a high risk area, please continue to follow the guidelines from local authorities. (2/2)

And again they're just not involving local authorities nearly enough and they could help a lot more

Edit: Incidentally given the combiined deprivation and travel number I'm 100% certain this is being driven by poshoes who just couldn't bear to not have a holiday overseas this year

[Tonitrus]

Cycling is also boring except the mountain climbing and the time trials.

Motorsports are nearly always boring. 

Cycling is great. I hate motor sports (with the minor exception of the Isle of Man TT)

I can see an argument for chess but I think there's got to be some sort of physical skill - now that can be minor (controlling a dart) but while all sports have mental stress, if it's all mental then I don't think it's a sport. Which isn't to take away from chess as its own (genuinely terrifying) thing.

Motor sports might get more appeal if races were like something from Dukes of Hazzard, Smokey and the Bandit, or Mad Max. 

That being said...of any of the motor sports that even got a slight interest from me, it would invariably be rally competitions...usually if it were in some H0d-forbidden wasteland.

[Sheilbh]

That being said...of any of the motor sports that even got a slight interest from me, it would invariably be rally competitions...usually if it were in some H0d-forbidden wasteland.

Yeah. I mean that's why I like the Isle of Man TT

[mongers]

In other news, Boris Johnson could not clarify his government's new NE England lockdown rules when asked, had to clarify later via Twitter. Basically he was asked if people can meet in pub gardens. The actual answer is that yes but actually no. It is not against the law to meet in a pub garden (although it IS to meet indoors in the pub) but it is requested that people do not do so. Clear as mud.

His style does not work for public health messages where you need absolute clarity, it's ridiculous. They have now clarified:

Boris Johnson
@BorisJohnson
In the North East, new rules mean you cannot meet people from different households in social settings indoors, including in pubs, restaurants and your home. You should also avoid socialising with other households outside. (1/2)
This is vital to control the spread of coronavirus and keep everyone safe. If you are in a high risk area, please continue to follow the guidelines from local authorities. (2/2)

And again they're just not involving local authorities nearly enough and they could help a lot more

Edit: Incidentally given the combiined deprivation and travel number I'm 100% certain this is being driven by poshoes who just couldn't bear to not have a holiday overseas this year

That's my reasoning in the late Winter for avoiding going into any Waitrose for the duration of the pandemic.

[The Larch]

Rather pathetic situation in Madrid at the moment.

Madrid in standoff with government over Covid-19 lockdown
Health minister urges regional authorities to 'listen to the science' as infections soar

And the patheticness has continued to the point of the national and regional governments being in full confrontation mode. It seems likely that the national government will overrule the regional one and establish lockdowns in Madrid and several surrounding cities. It might get to the point of the national government having to apply the same legislation that was applied back in the day in Catalonia to suspend parts of its regional autonomy.

Government intervention of Madrid looms as region refuses to adopt stricter coronavirus measures
The Socialist Party administration of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is seeking a way to intervene in the region, which has the worst infection rates in Europe

The Spanish government and the Madrid regional administration are currently engaged in last-minute negotiations in a bid to avoid the former from intervening in the latter, given the resistance of the region's premier, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, to implement stricter coronavirus measures despite having the worst infection rates in Europe.

The government of Socialist Party (PSOE) Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been preparing a way to strengthen the restrictions across Madrid, after it emerged on Friday that the regional government – run by the conservative Popular Party (PP) in coalition with center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) and propped up by far-right Vox – had rejected the recommendations of the Health Ministry to combat the spread of the coronavirus in the region, and was limiting itself to rolling out existing restrictions in 37 basic healthcare areas to a handful of other zones.

Ciudadanos is playing a key role in the current attempts to reach a deal, with the deputy regional premier, Ignacio Aguado of Ciudadanos, negotiating a way out of the impasse on Sunday with Health Minister Salvador Illa. If there is no deal over the next few days, the central government will intervene.

Sources from La Moncloa prime ministerial palace, the seat of government in Spain, have conveyed over the weekend that it is prepared to intervene in Madrid if there is an "urgent need." It is likely to do this under the so-called "new normality" decree, which was passed by the government at the end of the state of alarm implemented earlier this year, and which saw Spain subject to one of the world's strictest coronavirus lockdowns. The legislation permits the government to go over the head of a regional government and take decisions that will later be communicated to the local authorities.

The government has been ramping up the pressure on Madrid to change course and to implement stricter measures in a bid to get the pandemic under control. The Madrid region is divided into 286 basic healthcare zones. The central government is proposing the confinement of all of those where the cumulative incidence of coronavirus infections over 14 days exceeds 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. This would, in effect, mean the restrictions being implemented in 200 of these 286 zones, given the current figures from the region, and would affect 4.7 million people – three out of every four Madrileños. The restrictions are currently only in place in 45 healthcare zones.

For now, there is no guarantee that Ayuso is willing to change course, but Ciudadanos – via Aguado – took the first step after contacting the health minister and Carolina Darias, the central government's minister for territorial policy.

The public messages changed notably on Sunday after Aguado and Illa spoke. On Saturday, the central health chief had voiced a clear ultimatum, stating that intervention was imminent. But by Sunday he had softened his tone, albeit making it clear that Madrid would have to make a decision in the coming hours or La Moncloa would intervene.

"We have had communications with the Madrid region," said Illa. "With the utmost institutional loyalty, we have called on them to revise the announced measures and to follow the recommendations of the scientists and health experts."

"A political ceasefire is urgent," said Aguado. "Madrileños deserve for us to jointly agree on measures to protect their health. We are up to the task."

But speaking last night on Spanish television channel Antena 3, Ayuso made clear she had no intention of toughening up the coronavirus restrictions. "We are being devastated," she said in reference to the damage to the economy. "We can't close down everything. We have to opt for intermediate proposals," she added, after accusing the central government of changing the criteria at the last minute "for political reasons" after having supported Madrid's measures.

When the central government implemented the state of alarm in March in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus, it took control of many of the regions' powers. While opposition parties such as the PP initially supported the move, protests grew as the situation progressed, with regional chiefs – including Ayuso – calling for an end to the emergency situation, on the basis that the regions would be able to handle the pandemic better alone. As the situation worsened over the summer, however, and a second wave of the coronavirus started to take hold, Ayuso did an about turn and began to criticize the central government for inaction. Aguado went further, recently stating that it is "impossible to end an epidemic of these characteristics from the regional government alone."

The intervention of the central government in Madrid will have clear legal and political difficulties and is not the best option for the prime minister. The use of the new normality decree is the lightest touch available to the administration, allowing for the widening of the partial confinement currently in place in limited areas to all of the biggest neighborhoods. This would not involve a lockdown like that of March, but simply limit movements between neighborhoods and within the region as much as possible. That said, implementing this measure would be highly problematic without the cooperation of the regional government.

Sources from the Madrid government said that they believed that La Moncloa would not dare to intervene given the problems that this would involved. Sources from La Moncloa, meanwhile, admit that intervention is not their preferred option but warn that the decision is inevitable if the data continues to get worse.

Aguado's maneuver was key to unblocking the negotiations, but from the central government there have been warnings that there has been no commitment to toughen up the measures and that Ayuso is still in charge, with the premier insisting that her position is the correct one and that a general confinement is not the solution. Sources close to the regional premier went as far as to say that if the Health Ministry wants to confine all the areas in Madrid that have infection rates above 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, they will have to do so in all of Spain.

[crazy canuck]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

[Valmy]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

Because they have the most people?

[DGuller]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

Because they have the most people?

Not for long at this rate.

[Syt]

8900 new cases in Israel yesterday, vs. Austria's ca. 900 - population is about equal in size in both countries, though density is a lot higher in Israel - 400per km² in Israel vs 109 in Austria.

[celedhring]

8900 new cases in Israel yesterday, vs. Austria's ca. 900 - population is about equal in size in both countries, though density is a lot higher in Israel - 400per km² in Israel vs 109 in Austria.

IIRC about half the population of Israel lives in Tel-Aviv. The "on the ground" population density is probably much higher.