Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Richard Hakluyt]

A must-read for everyone in this thread:
k: the overlooked variable

[...]

Interesting article; I think it is on the right track.........this k variable being an important one for covid might explain a lot of the apparent randomness.

We will need to isolate Kevin Bacon though; otherwise our Hollywood stars will be decimated 


This kind of behavior, alternating between being super infectious and fairly noninfectious, is exactly what k captures, and what focusing solely on R hides. Samuel Scarpino, an assistant professor of epidemiology and complex systems at Northeastern, told me that this has been a huge challenge, especially for health authorities in Western societies, where the pandemic playbook was geared toward the flu—and not without reason, because pandemic flu is a genuine threat. However, influenza does not have the same level of clustering behavior.

[Syt]

In early September, a 13 year old girl collapsed on a German school bus and died. Reason still unknown.

However, Covidiots have claimed that she died from CO2 poisoning because she was wearing a mask. A medical doctor, specialized in ENT (ears, nose, throat), who is one of the more prominent parts of the Covid conspiracy scene, claimed to have heard through private channels that CO2 poisoning is the reason. Since then he has claimed on two occasions that more children have died, one in Schweinfurt in Franconia, one in Aurich in East Frisia, because of CO2 poisoning due to mask wearing. Neither case has been corroborated in any way by anyone. He made the announcement of the third child in a video in which he cried in front of the camera.

What drives such people?

[Tamas]

In early September, a 13 year old girl collapsed on a German school bus and died. Reason still unknown.

However, Covidiots have claimed that she died from CO2 poisoning because she was wearing a mask. A medical doctor, specialized in ENT (ears, nose, throat), who is one of the more prominent parts of the Covid conspiracy scene, claimed to have heard through private channels that CO2 poisoning is the reason. Since then he has claimed on two occasions that more children have died, one in Schweinfurt in Franconia, one in Aurich in East Frisia, because of CO2 poisoning due to mask wearing. Neither case has been corroborated in any way by anyone. He made the announcement of the third child in a video in which he cried in front of the camera.

What drives such people?

Yeah good question. Maybe a drive to return to normality and getting rid of feeling insecure and uncertain of the future? Not that it's any excuse for dangerous BS like that, just thinking.

[Josephus]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

Because they have the most people?

Not for long at this rate.

Nobody's dying. It's just millennials going out for drinks, getting drunk and having sex and ...man I wish I was a millennial.

[HVC]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

Because they have the most people?

Not for long at this rate.

Nobody's dying. It's just millennials going out for drinks, getting drunk and having sex and ...man I wish I was a millennial.

Yeah the mortality rate seems low. but who knows, there might be a longer lag this time because of better testing and earlier diagnosis.

[Sheilbh]

Latest surveillance report in the UK - definitely taking off in the North (and Cornwall - holidays?). As a London person I'm intrigued by the North/South London divide:


Edit: Incidentally given that my elderly family members are generally in Dorset I am very pleased at how low the infection rate is there. Well done Dorset-people (what's the adjective for someone from Dorset? ).

What drives such people?

I've spoken with people about anti-vax before because I always find it crazy that Andrew Wakefield was discredited and struck off in the UK. But then went to the US and France and was able to peddle the same story with the added kudos of being "dangerous". I never know how much is cynicism and seeing panic and fear and an opportunity to raise your profile/create an income stream, how much is just an inability to admit that you're wrong and the majority are right/martyrdom complex, and how much is just true belief. Because if it's not those things I just don't understand it at all - it's mind boggling.

[Syt]

Saw a post this morning that apparently 1/1000 of the population in Mississippi have died of Covid?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Saw a post this morning that apparently 1/1000 of the population in Mississippi have died of Covid?

2979 deaths according to the John Hopkins site. The state's population is just short of 3m so sounds about right.

[alfred russel]

Saw a post this morning that apparently 1/1000 of the population in Mississippi have died of Covid?

Yes--which makes it #7 in deaths per capita in the US. The other 6 are (in order) New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana, and Rhode Island.

[alfred russel]

Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!

He has quite a few of the risk factors...

Even someone as elderly as Trump, and obese, will probably be fine. He is 74. Seems like his risk of death is probably in the 3-3.5% range--probably lower for him because I suspect he is in better than average shape than those that are dying (yes I know he is obese).

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2

[Valmy]

This disease, if it has symptoms, can be pretty bad and drag on even if it doesn't kill somebody.

[alfred russel]

This disease, if it has symptoms, can be pretty bad and drag on even if it doesn't kill somebody.

The best thing that can happen for his campaign is for him to not be campaigning.

You know the remaining life expectancy of someone who is a 74 year old man is 11.8 years? One year is 8.4% of his expected remaining life.

[Sheilbh]

This disease, if it has symptoms, can be pretty bad and drag on even if it doesn't kill somebody.

The best thing that can happen for his campaign is for him to not be campaigning.

You know the remaining life expectancy of someone who is a 74 year old man is 11.8 years? One year is 8.4% of his expected remaining life.

Although - assuming he stays well - he is apparently experiencing mild symptoms and "working" from the residence. It might be good if he isn't campaigning, but I don't know if the campaign is helped by the president rage-tweeting through day after day of watching TV without even the pretence of work

[Josquius]

I eagerly await Syts sister telling us what a hero he is, sacrificing his health to fight for 'Merica

[Valmy]

What I was trying to get at is the only way this matters is if he gets symptoms so serious that he cannot execute any shenanigans after the elections should he lose. If he doesn't have bad symptoms he can tweet and post videos or whatever while he is sick. He can zoom during the debates even. It won't matter.