Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51148303?fbclid=IwAR1GIgxHsW_xaFgfd2-ZxzfU4Kr7RdozU7zgIsKL67rk7EFv_oqAsvhVcrM

New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'

The number of people already infected by the mystery virus emerging in China is far greater than official figures suggest, scientists have told the BBC.

There have been nearly 50 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, but UK experts estimate a figure nearer 1,700.

Two people are known to have died from the respiratory illness, which appeared in Wuhan city in December.

"I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago," disease outbreak scientist Prof Neil Ferguson, said.

The work was conducted by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, which advises bodies including the UK government and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Singapore and Hong Kong have been screening air passengers from Wuhan, and US authorities announced similar measures starting on Friday at three major airports in San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.

The crucial clue to the scale of the problem lies in the cases being detected in other countries.

While the outbreak is centred on the central Chinese city of Wuhan, there have been two cases in Thailand and one in Japan.

"That caused me to worry," said Prof Ferguson.

He added: "For Wuhan to have exported three cases to other countries would imply there would have to be many more cases than have been reported."

It is impossible to get the precise number, but outbreak modelling, which is based on the virus, the local population and flight data, can give an idea.

Wuhan International Airport serves a population of 19 million people, but only 3,400 a day travel internationally.

The detailed calculations, which have been posted online ahead of publication in a scientific journal, came up with a figure of 1,700 cases.

Prof Ferguson said it was "too early to be alarmist" but he was "substantially more concerned" than a week ago.

Chinese officials say there have been no cases of the virus spreading from one person to another.

Instead they say the virus has crossed the species barrier and come from infected animals at a seafood and wildlife market in Wuhan.

Prof Ferguson argues: "People should be considering the possibility of substantial human-to-human transmission more seriously than they have so far.

"It would be unlikely in my mind, given what we know about coronaviruses, to have animal exposure, be the principal cause of such a number of human infections."

Understanding how a novel virus is spreading is a crucial part of assessing its threat.

The WHO's China office said the analysis was helpful and would help officials plan the response to the outbreak.

"Much remains to be understood about the new coronavirus," it said. "Not enough is known to draw definitive conclusions about how it is transmitted, the clinical features of the disease, the extent to which it has spread, or its source, which remains unknown."

Viral samples have been taken from patients and analysed in the laboratory.

And officials in China and the World Health Organization have concluded the infection is a coronavirus.

Coronaviruses are a broad family of viruses, but only six (the new one would make it seven) are known to infect people.

At the mild end they cause the common cold, but severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) is a coronavirus that killed 774 of the 8,098 people infected in an outbreak that started in China in 2002.

Analysis of the genetic code of the new virus shows it is more closely related to Sars than any other human coronavirus.

The virus has caused pneumonia in some patients and been fatal in two of them.

Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome medical research charity, said: "There is more to come from this epidemic.

"Uncertainty and gaps remain, but it's clear that there is some level of person-to-person transmission.

"We are starting to hear of more cases in China and other countries and it is likely, as this modelling shows, that there will be many more cases in a number of countries."

Prof Jonathan Ball, from the University of Nottingham, said: "What's really important is until there has been widespread laboratory testing it is very difficult to put a real number on the cases out there.

"But this is a figure we should take seriously until we know otherwise, 41 animal-to-human 'spillovers' is stretching it a bit and there probably is more underlying infection than has been detected so far."

[Josquius]

BRB buying ticket to Greenland

[Zanza]

BRB buying ticket to Greenland Madagascar

FTFY

[Eddie Teach]

Maybe he gets seasick.

[Syt]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-cases-surge-china-virus-spreads-n1118701?cid=ed_npd_bn_tw_bn

Coronavirus cases surge in China as virus spreads

The World Health Organization has warned the virus is a new strain that had not been previously identified in humans.

By Dawn Liu, Eric Baculinao and Isobel van Hagen

BEIJING — The number of people known to have been infected with the coronavirus on Monday jumped to over 200 from 62, with new cases reported in China's capital and other Asian countries.

Over the weekend, a third patient in the region died of pneumonia-like virus, bringing the death toll to three.

Authorities in Wuhan, the where coronavirus appears to have originated, said 136 new cases have been confirmed in the city in central China. As of Monday, there were a total of 198 infected patients in Wuhan and more than 200 worldwide.

Experts say the recent spike in cases is largely due to more testing and looking for cases, not because of faster spread.

The outbreak has coincided with one of the busiest travel periods of the year with millions of people journey inside and outside of China for the Lunar New Year.

The virus has now spread beyond the confines of Wuhan with five people in Beijing, one in Shanghai, and 14 in the Guangdong province being diagnosed, according to health officials. Authorities in Thailand and in Japan have identified at least three cases, all involving recent travel from China.

Meanwhile, South Korea reported its first case — a 35-year-old Chinese woman from Wuhan who tested positive for the disease one day after arriving at an airport in Seoul. The woman is being hospitalized in isolation, according to The Associated Press.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said Monday that it's "extremely crucial" to take every possible measure to combat the virus.

"Party committees, governments and relevant departments at all levels should put people's lives and health first," he said on state broadcaster CCTV.

Initial symptoms of the virus include fever, cough, tightness of the chest and shortness of breath.

The outbreak has put other countries on high alert with at least a half-a-dozen countries in Asia starting screening incoming airline passengers from central China. The United States said Friday that it also would begin screening for sick travelers at three U.S. airports — John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, as well as San Francisco International Airport and Los Angeles International Airport.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned the virus was a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.

It belongs to the large family of coronaviruses that can cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed nearly 800 people globally during a 2002-2003 outbreak that also started in China.

[Josephus]

With any luck, there will be an outbreak in Toronto, like last time, and we'll have another big concert to celebrate, like last time.

[Malthus]

BRB buying ticket to Greenland Madagascar

FTFY

he can't - they closed their ports. 

[HVC]

whats the big deal? 200 people died out of a billion? the regular old flu kills more people. or am I missing something?

[crazy canuck]

Whenever a new virus makes the jump from animals to humans and then mutates so that it is spread by human to human contact it is a big deal.  It is the sort of thing that can potential kill many millions.

[Malthus]

whats the big deal? 200 people died out of a billion? the regular old flu kills more people. or am I missing something?

It's a new deadly disease that can spread by human to human contact, so has the potential to be a new pandemic. Perhaps.

Not a reason to panic yet of course, but definitely something to keep an eye on.

[HVC]

Virus mutate quite often. That's why we need a new flu vaccine every year, for example. I mean I get being conscious, but every year there seems to be a new news cycle about the next big disease that takes out a few dozen people, when virus' that have been with us thousands of years and kills magnitudes or orders more people aren't seen as a big deal.

[crazy canuck]

Virus mutate quite often. That's why we need a new flu vaccine every year, for example. I mean I get being conscious, but every year there seems to be a new news cycle about the next big disease that takes out a few dozen people, when virus' that have been with us thousands of years and kills magnitudes or orders more people aren't seen as a big deal.

I think the thing you might be missing is this is a new virus that has made the very rare jump from animal to human transmission to human to human transmission.

[katmai]

I promise we will put on your tombstone "HVC didn't think it was a big deal"

[crazy canuck]

I promise we will put on your tombstone "HVC didn't think it was a big deal"

[Eddie Teach]

I promise we will put on your tombstone "HVC didn't think it was a big deal"

Well, somebody will.