Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[crazy canuck]

Ontario and Quebec are starting to race ahead of the rest of the country in number of infections.  Not sure what is causing that.

Because they have the most people?

Difference in population doesn't provide a good explanation as to why their infections are going up and modelled to go higher while ours have levelled off and are modelled to go down. explanation.

Besides, Quebec isn't much more populous than BC, it just seems that way because of the glut of Parliamentary seats they are given. 

Quebec is the worst case.  It has 6x more daily infections and doesn't approach 2x our population.  Ontario is a bit better but their trend is the worrying thing.  They are currently at about 6x our number our number of infections with 3x our population but their modelling has them heading to 10x our number of infections (theirs is modelled to go up to 1000 cases a day while ours models cases going back below 100 per day).

I have not seen a good explanation for this divergence.

I don't think there is one. It might be climate related too.

Well that was sudden, Quebec is already over 1000 daily cases now and BC is now below 100.  Still no idea what the difference is, you guys locked down harder than us.

[Oexmelin]

Well that was sudden, Quebec is already over 1000 daily cases now and BC is now below 100.  Still no idea what the difference is, you guys locked down harder than us.

I don't really know either. The first wave may have been sustained by the specific problems of long-term care facilities in Quebec, but this one isn't really about that. As you note, lockdown was both harsher, and better respected in Quebec during the first wave. My gratuitous, impossible to prove hypothesis, is that Quebecers are perhaps more touchy-feely than elsewhere in Canada? Locking down may have been comparatively easier than keeping 2m distance between family members outside of one's bubble?

I haven't read any convincing explanations (public health officials seem more interested in saving face / controlling the message than making rigorous self-assessment).

[viper37]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2020283
https://www.covid19hg.org/blog/2020-09-24-freeze-3-results/

Neanderthal is to blame.

A chromosome fragment, present in 16% of Europeans and 50% of Asians increases threefold the risk of developing acute symptoms of covid-19.

IIRC, Africans were the pure race, with 0% Neanderthal DNA in them.  Could be why they haven't been that much affected by the disease.

[viper37]

Kim Jong Un maybe.

Trump lover.   

[viper37]

This disease, if it has symptoms, can be pretty bad and drag on even if it doesn't kill somebody.

like, say, difficulty to concentrate?  Incoherent rambling?  Seeing things that aren't there?
just asking, you know... 

[Tamas]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2020283
https://www.covid19hg.org/blog/2020-09-24-freeze-3-results/

Neanderthal is to blame.

A chromosome fragment, present in 16% of Europeans and 50% of Asians increases threefold the risk of developing acute symptoms of covid-19.

IIRC, Africans were the pure race, with 0% Neanderthal DND in them.  Could be why they haven't been that much affected by the disease.

Dude statistically black people are at considerably more risk.

You have few cases in Africa because they lack the means to test. No testing no cases.

[celedhring]

Is that proven or just a product of generally worse living conditions?

[Tamas]

Is that proven or just a product of generally worse living conditions?

The RCA is not in yet and yes I do assume its poverty and living  conditions, but BAME people being at higher risk in Britain is well documented.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The population in Africa is very young. In countries like Kenya the median age is only 20 years. So the death profile will be a lot better than for old countries.

[Josephus]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2020283
https://www.covid19hg.org/blog/2020-09-24-freeze-3-results/

Neanderthal is to blame.

A chromosome fragment, present in 16% of Europeans and 50% of Asians increases threefold the risk of developing acute symptoms of covid-19.

IIRC, Africans were the pure race, with 0% Neanderthal DND in them.  Could be why they haven't been that much affected by the disease.

Aren't black peoples highly susceptible?

[Josquius]

No idea how it's keeping up but it seemed earlier in the year that it was middle Eastern and south Asian people that seemed to be being hit hardest. I believe it is being pretty  bad in India?

[Sheilbh]

The population in Africa is very young. In countries like Kenya the median age is only 20 years. So the death profile will be a lot better than for old countries.

Yeah we'll need to adjust for age profiles, but it does make it a lot better.

From a friend who works for a UN agency in Africa (and who has been tested by the local health ministry) another thing is that dealing with pandemics and infectious disease/public health is something a lot of African countries have a lot of experience with.

[Syt]

Based on this clip in which he doesn't answer a question (when does the testing center in Slough reopen), but instead chides the questioner for "divisive language", it appears this Matt Hancock person is a bit of a twat?

https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1312117010843660289?s=20

[Richard Hakluyt]

He is reckoned to be slightly better than the Johnson cabinet average ........ which shows how shit they are.

We call him Hattie in this house; we are a slightly childish household.

[garbon]

For May, he was the person always put in front of the press to try to defend indefensible policy.