Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Sadiq is doing us very proud

Dear God man. Threatening secession isn't just for South Carolinians anymore.

I meant Sadiq's response, not change.org petitions.

[Valmy]

I meant Sadiq's response, not change.org petitions.

Whoops

What did he say?

[Agelastus]

I doubt Article 50 will be activated for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if we have an election to get a mandate for negotiating withdrawal. If we don't know what we want yet, and so much of this is unthinkable, there's no reason to start the timer.

What if a general election is won by someone who promises not to Leave? 

Parliamentary supremacy could apply, I suppose, given that the elected person/party would have the newer Mandate.

I wouldn't like to be the man defending that position on the political shows, though, given the current climate.

Anyway, I was right about one thing; I said that a close result would be politically disastrous for the country. I was just wrong in my assessment of which side of 50% the close result would fall.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I actually do not believe a union of states retaining some sovereignty is possible long term if 50+1 votes on stay/leave are permitted, especially all the time/any time. That applies to both the EU and the UK, and was why I was so against the Scottish even being permitted a vote.

In America we staked out an incredibly strong position on it being an irrevocable, permanent union. When 11 states disagreed we went to war over ir, and it transformed us from a collection of states to a nation. This was even true culturally--the very way people spoke about state and country changed fundamentally after the civil war.

The way Europeans/Brits have gone about it these unions face the risk of permanent severing anytime passions briefly turn against said union.

Building a European Empire with blood and iron doesn't seem to be the way forward. So I prefer our wussy, peaceful Union and if that means it is threatened by passions and populism, so be it. It's better than the alternative.

No-I don't think the American approach is suitable for a union of historically true independent countries like Europe, but it makes sense for the UK, or Spain for that matter. I think the EU has to make some tough decisions. I could see a point far in the future where it is decided it will become a true Federal state, and members will have to sign on for that or leave.

[Zanza]

I mean there is a lot of dissatisfaction with the EU across Europe, why not spend some years trying to reform it rather than leave? Basically I don't agree with the timing. I think the UK's position in the EU was untenable long term (but I mean like in terms of multiple decades), but was a fine framework for trying to be part of EU reform. If at some future date it became obvious the EU and Brussels were not going to make meaningful reforms then you could hold the referendum.

They would probably argue that's what they did. Euroscepticism really started in the early 1990s in Britain and they opted out of various EU programs they disagreed with. They did push some stuff like service market liberalization. However, them having any constructive role certainly ended with the Tories in 2010. After that, their only goal was to not participate in anything anymore.

[Zanza]

I don't think there will be "massive trade restrictions" in terms of goods. The key thing is the easy free flow of people and capital will be gone, as will a unified regulatory framework. But in terms of say traditional tariffs being levied against British imports to the EU, I don't think that's the major concern.

Average tariffs betwen the EU and America are only 3%, which is why the TTIP was more focused on other trade barriers.

Britain will get very low tariffs from the EU and perhaps even free trade, but it won't get the vast benefits of being part of the EEA unless it agrees to the free movement of people like Norway has---a position Brexiteerd wouldn't accept and which would make the whole exercise stupid.

Yes. Non-tariff barriers will go up though and they can forget about liberalization of the service market. I wonder if stuff like the liberalization of the airline market will be kept. Or the Bosman ruling in football.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I actually do not believe a union of states retaining some sovereignty is possible long term if 50+1 votes on stay/leave are permitted, especially all the time/any time. That applies to both the EU and the UK, and was why I was so against the Scottish even being permitted a vote.

In America we staked out an incredibly strong position on it being an irrevocable, permanent union. When 11 states disagreed we went to war over ir, and it transformed us from a collection of states to a nation. This was even true culturally--the very way people spoke about state and country changed fundamentally after the civil war.

The way Europeans/Brits have gone about it these unions face the risk of permanent severing anytime passions briefly turn against said union.

I don't think the building of the states/nations in north-america is really comparable to what happened in Europe. The way the especially the US came into being is radically different from anything that happened over here. The absence of grievances towards overlords of any kind (other than the Brits, but even that faded quite fast) is a massive bonus.

[Zanza]

Under the concept of self determination Euros seem obsessed with London has a valid argument to secede as well.

Wasn't Woodrow Wilson an American? He introduced the concept to Imperialist Europe...

[Maladict]

I for one welcome my new Franco-German overlords.

[Zanza]

I don't think anyone would/could campaign on that pledge. But in theory this is non-binding and the only thing Parliament cannot do is bind future Parliaments so why not...

Why wouldn't you campaign on that pledge? I totally would. Almost half of all Britons voted for Remain and I predict the Leave coalition will badly splinter now. They had one thing in common and that's gone now.

[Valmy]

Wasn't Woodrow Wilson an American? He introduced the concept to Imperialist Europe...

Wilson had many terrible ideas. This was the worst one. But he was a racist so of course he favored collective identities and tyranny of the majority over individual rights.

[Sheilbh]

I meant Sadiq's response, not change.org petitions.

Whoops

What did he say?

"I believe that Britain is better off within the European Union, but the British people have clearly spoken today, and their democratic will must now be fulfilled.

"I would like to praise David Cameron for the dignified way he has reacted to the message sent by the British people in his words at Downing Street today. I agree with the Prime Minister that Britain can survive and prosper outside the European Union.

"I want to send a clear message to the British people and to businesses and investors around the world this morning - there is no need to panic.

"I still believe that our country is better off within the European Union, but there is no doubt that London will continue to be the successful city it is today. Our city and our country will continue to be the best place in the world to do business. And we will continue to look outwards and trade and engage with the entire world - including the European Union.

"Although we will be outside the EU, it is crucial that we remain part of the single market. Leaving the single market of 500 million people - with its free-trade benefits - would be a mistake. I will be pushing the Government to ensure this is the cornerstone of the negotiations with the EU. It is crucial that London has a voice at the table during those renegotiations, alongside Scotland and Northern Ireland.

"We all have a responsibility to now seek to heal the divisions that have emerged throughout this campaign - and to focus on that which unites us, rather than that which divides us."

"I want to send a particular message to the almost one million Europeans living in London, who make a huge contribution to our city - working hard, paying taxes and contributing to our civic and cultural life. You are welcome here. We value the enormous contribution you make to our city and that will not change as a result of this referendum."

[Zanza]

So your constitutional crisis is not just that you have a severely limited freedom of action for the government and parliament but also that all of a sudden your regions claim to have a say in foreign policy? What is this nonsense?

[Valmy]

Nice sentiments certainly.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Under the concept of self determination Euros seem obsessed with London has a valid argument to secede as well.

Wasn't Woodrow Wilson an American? He introduced the concept to Imperialist Europe...

Woodrow Wilson was a racist who lead us into a disastrous war that killed over a hundred thousand Americans, oversaw wartime sedition laws and then had a stroke and his wife and cabinet covertly ran the country for the last two years of his Presidency. The less said about him the better.