Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

Bizarrely Trump is both celebrating the Brexit vote and blaming Obama for it.

So he is celebrating Obama? Interesting.

No, he's been negative about him. Said Obama's comments were inappropriate.

[Zanza]

TTIP is only estimated to boost EU economies by €120bn and American by €90bn. Not "nothing", but suggests Britain isn't going to be making huge economic improvements by negotiating free trade with North America.

China and India though? I am not sure about their current trade status with them.

Germany is China's 5th biggest trade partner (after USA, Japan, Korea and Taiwan) and India's 6th biggest trade partner (after China, USA, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland  ). So trading with these countries while solidly being part of the European Union is definitely possible.

[Solmyr]

The Isle of Man only abolished corporal punishment in the late 90s due to a European Court of Human Rights ruling. That, and no doubt other factors, turned the Manx off anything European forever.

They dare remove their right to savage beatings? How uncivilized.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sK0lUPsZvXA

[OttoVonBismarck]

Under the concept of self determination Euros seem obsessed with London has a valid argument to secede as well.

[Zanza]

Labour MPs have tabled a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. They want to fight.

Has there ever been a day in British political history where both big parties have had their leader in a motion of non-confidence on the same day?

[Valmy]

Germany is China's 5th biggest trade partner (after USA, Japan, Korea and Taiwan) and India's 6th biggest trade partner (after China, USA, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland  ). So trading with these countries while solidly being part of the European Union is definitely possible.

So there might not really be massive trade restrictions for a non-EU Britain to negotiate. Or maybe Germany is just that good.

[Valmy]

Under the concept of self determination Euros seem obsessed with London has a valid argument to secede as well.

Yes indeed. It justifies any region to break away should they ever lose a vote. Democratic government cannot function with that principle.

[garbon]

Under the concept of self determination Euros seem obsessed with London has a valid argument to secede as well.

https://www.change.org/p/sadiq-khan-declare-london-independent-from-the-uk-and-apply-to-join-the-eu

30k signatures as of just now.

[Zanza]

I doubt Article 50 will be activated for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if we have an election to get a mandate for negotiating withdrawal. If we don't know what we want yet, and so much of this is unthinkable, there's no reason to start the timer.

What if a general election is won by someone who promises not to Leave? 

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't think there will be "massive trade restrictions" in terms of goods. The key thing is the easy free flow of people and capital will be gone, as will a unified regulatory framework. But in terms of say traditional tariffs being levied against British imports to the EU, I don't think that's the major concern.

Average tariffs betwen the EU and America are only 3%, which is why the TTIP was more focused on other trade barriers.

Britain will get very low tariffs from the EU and perhaps even free trade, but it won't get the vast benefits of being part of the EEA unless it agrees to the free movement of people like Norway has---a position Brexiteerd wouldn't accept and which would make the whole exercise stupid.

[Valmy]

I doubt Article 50 will be activated for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if we have an election to get a mandate for negotiating withdrawal. If we don't know what we want yet, and so much of this is unthinkable, there's no reason to start the timer.

What if a general election is won by someone who promises not to Leave? 

That would be a ridiculous farce that would expose British democracy as a bad joke.

So it just might happen

[Sheilbh]

Labour MPs have tabled a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. They want to fight.

Has there ever been a day in British political history where both big parties have had their leader in a motion of non-confidence on the same day?

Can't think of any comparison.

Sadiq is doing us very proud

[Zanza]

I actually do not believe a union of states retaining some sovereignty is possible long term if 50+1 votes on stay/leave are permitted, especially all the time/any time. That applies to both the EU and the UK, and was why I was so against the Scottish even being permitted a vote.

In America we staked out an incredibly strong position on it being an irrevocable, permanent union. When 11 states disagreed we went to war over ir, and it transformed us from a collection of states to a nation. This was even true culturally--the very way people spoke about state and country changed fundamentally after the civil war.

The way Europeans/Brits have gone about it these unions face the risk of permanent severing anytime passions briefly turn against said union.

Building a European Empire with blood and iron doesn't seem to be the way forward. So I prefer our wussy, peaceful Union and if that means it is threatened by passions and populism, so be it. It's better than the alternative.

[Valmy]

Sadiq is doing us very proud

Dear God man. Threatening secession isn't just for South Carolinians anymore.

[Sheilbh]

I doubt Article 50 will be activated for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if we have an election to get a mandate for negotiating withdrawal. If we don't know what we want yet, and so much of this is unthinkable, there's no reason to start the timer.

What if a general election is won by someone who promises not to Leave? 

I don't think anyone would/could campaign on that pledge. But in theory this is non-binding and the only thing Parliament cannot do is bind future Parliaments so why not...