Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Short term economic pain will not make the Republic give up its long term ambition to have an open border with the North. This is one of the big misconceptions of Ireland and the EU in the British public debate. They, like the Tories, are willing to endure economic pain for political goals.

I mean there's no party in Ireland that isn't nationalist and there's a few Republicans left. They want a united Ireland, but it's been polite not to say it since the Good Friday Agreement. Failing that an open border will do.

The other side, though, is that I've already seen Republicans in the south accusing Varadkar and the rest of the Dail re-partitioning Ireland. Realistically I don't know what else they were supposed to do, but it's a hell of a claim.

But there is increased dissident Republican threat in the North (and potentially the South if they really go into the re-partitioning line) and there's apparently increased recruitment and activity in dissident Unionist groups too over the past year. I hope peace is entrenched enough for the communities to not come apart regardless of what happens, but I'm not entirely confident.

[The Minsky Moment]

Only two borders?  Why stop there?  Why not 4 or 5?  Why not grab a bunch of Sptifires from museums and send them to patrol the Channel Islands.  Put a border post at Carlisle to slow the flow of haggis into England.  Put a border around Bono and slap a 10% tariff per unit of glasses shading.

[The Minsky Moment]

So there will be customs border between Ireland and NI, but no customs controls.  Goods can be imported by a "transit mechanism."  I.e. by moving them.  Customs checks will occur in unspecified locations based on "risk assessments".  Compliance with the regime is the honor system.  Traders moving goods via the "transit mechanism" are on their honor to declare them.  If they fail to do so,



This is what Johnson's people spent the last month putting together?

[The Minsky Moment]

This is basically the old proposal of solving the need for customs control but without any infrastructure by "Technology" except without the technology.

[frunk]

So there will be customs border between Ireland and NI, but no customs controls.  Goods can be imported by a "transit mechanism."  I.e. by moving them.  Customs checks will occur in unspecified locations based on "risk assessments".  Compliance with the regime is the honor system.  Traders moving goods via the "transit mechanism" are on their honor to declare them.  If they fail to do so,



This is what Johnson's people spent the last month putting together?

Translation: We want all of our trade with the EU to go through Ireland.

[The Minsky Moment]

Meanwhile Northern Ireland will send MPs to Westminster to help decide the regulatory regime that will apply to England, Scotland and Wales, but NOT Northern Ireland.  The NI regime will be decided in Brussels with no input from NI. 

[Sheilbh]

Not quite no say. The Northern Irish Assembly will decide in four years time if they want to continue regulatory alignment with the EU in four years time (and then every four years), in accordance with the rules of Stormont.

The rules of Stormont are power sharing and consensus so both communities would need to approve continuing regulatory alignment with the EU. So in four years time the DUP would have a veto and Northern Ireland would return to regulatory alignment with the UK.

Technically it's a unionist veto - one of the sub-plots of Brexit in Northern Ireland has been unionists complaining about "majoritarianism" because, in large part, unionist majoritarianism is what caused the Troubles. But now they are very keen on the principle of consent and resisting majoritarianism in Northern Ireland because a majority (but not in both communities) is pro-Europe.

But I do think even if the backstop is in place (and I have issues with it) that there does need to be some democratic say for the people of Northern Ireland.

Incidentally excellent contribution in the Commons by Lady Sylvia Hermon (very moderate unionist formerly of the UUP and widow of a former Chief Constable of the RUC) - who was fuming about this proposal.

[dps]

So there will be customs border between Ireland and NI, but no customs controls.  Goods can be imported by a "transit mechanism."  I.e. by moving them.  Customs checks will occur in unspecified locations based on "risk assessments".  Compliance with the regime is the honor system.  Traders moving goods via the "transit mechanism" are on their honor to declare them.  If they fail to do so,



This is what Johnson's people spent the last month putting together?

Translation: We want all of our trade with the EU to go through Ireland.

Sounds like kind of a good deal for Ireland.

[The Minsky Moment]

In theory it would kind of a good deal in the sense that large-scale smuggling and tax evasion has some tendency to increase local employment but it's not an ideal development policy. More to the point the EU won't accept such a state of affairs.

The customs proposal in the letter is pathetically inadequate.

[dps]

In theory it would kind of a good deal in the sense that large-scale smuggling and tax evasion has some tendency to increase local employment but it's not an ideal development policy. More to the point the EU won't accept such a state of affairs.

The customs proposal in the letter is pathetically inadequate.

Is it really smuggling if import controls are just enforced on the honor system?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think the proposals would either enable vast amounts of smuggling, thus compromising the integrity of the single market, or there would be customs officials continually snooping on people and their businesses throughout Ireland. Neither of these is attractive; I would say they are actually worse than a border.

[Zanza]

The Tories are the Anti-Trumps: They claim not to want a hard border with their Southern neighbour, but their policies will lead to the neighbour building and paying for a "wall".

[Sheilbh]

Interesting benefit from that Scottish case. Government has now stated in court the PM will send the letter by or before 19 October and will not try to frustrate the act

[Josquius]

The Tories are the Anti-Trumps: They claim not to want a hard border with their Southern neighbour, but their policies will lead to the neighbour building and paying for a "wall".

:LOL:

[Tamas]

It's funny how people point to Johnson's "rather die in a ditch" comment as a lie. Well, no shit? It's incredible how after a well-documented lifetime of lies and deceit, people still take what he says at face value.