The Paris Attack Debate Thread

[Valmy]

Is it possible to do a Turkish breakup like Czechs and Slovaks did in 1993?

Probably not. The Czechs and Slovaks had mostly been partners and were on decent terms. About as much as two east European ethnic groups can be in those sorts of situations anyway.

[viper37]

Just out of curiosity what does the "State of Emergency" that's been declared in France mean in practical terms?  Hollande wants to extend it for three months, is that likely to happen?

Oh yes, it is likely to happen. Hollande is now steering the ship all starboard, ahoy.

Among the propositions on the table, bi-nationals "born-French" will be dispossessed of their citizenship in case of terrorism, foreign borns who present a threat to national security quickly deported, and a "National Guard" made of reservists of the Armed Forces will be mobilized. Also, constitutional changes will be proposed, which will have to be ratified either by a session of congress or a referendum, but the tenants of this reform haven't been made public yet.

Very strong moves, but smart moves, given the enormity of the problem in France. I'm seeing reports of large numbers of extremists in Paris that the intel agencies are just now realizing. Any truth to that or is it over the top reporting?

There are 11 000 people with a profile S in all of France, meaning they are under watch by the French intelligence agencies.  Out of these, 3850 are supposed to be muslim radicals.  They may be people supporting ISIS morally or physically.  They are not all criminals, but some of them may seek to leave the country for Jihad in Syria.  Some others may be weapons merchants who count terrorists or criminal groups in their client lists, it is hard to say.

But they are not "just realizing".  They had them under watch, but were often refused a warrant because the evidence was too thin.
Now with Hollande's state of emergency, they can investigate a bit further and search for evidence legally, without the need for a search warrant.

[Jacob]

There are 11 000 people with a code S in all of France, meaning they are under watch by the French intelligence agencies.  Out of these, 3850 are supposed to be muslim radicals.  They may be people supporting ISIS morally or physically.  They are not all criminals, but some of them may seek to leave the country for Jihad in Syria.  Some others may be weapons merchants who count terrorists or criminal groups in their client lists, it is hard to say.

Interesting.

Do you have any idea about the affiliations of the 7150 code S people who are not muslim radicals?

[Valmy]

Separatists and political radicals I would guess. Lots of crazy political ideas float around France.

[viper37]

There are 11 000 people with a code S in all of France, meaning they are under watch by the French intelligence agencies.  Out of these, 3850 are supposed to be muslim radicals.  They may be people supporting ISIS morally or physically.  They are not all criminals, but some of them may seek to leave the country for Jihad in Syria.  Some others may be weapons merchants who count terrorists or criminal groups in their client lists, it is hard to say.

Interesting.

Do you have any idea about the affiliations of the 7150 code S people who are not muslim radicals?

no, that wasn't explained to me.  They could be drug trafficker or weapons merchants who never directly interacted with ISIS or another terror group.  They could be criminal bands from Marseilles where they frequently solve their dispute with an AK-47.  All I know is they aren't supposed to have ties to muslim extremists.  Doesn't mean they are innocent, just they have other criminal or borderline criminal activities.

Separatists and political radicals I would guess. Lots of crazy political ideas float around France.

that and eco terrorists too, Peta types willing to put a bomb somewhere.  People for whom there is no direct evidence of criminal activities but who are suspected to be in contact with criminals, helping them or committing future reprehensible acts.
That just means they are under surveillance by the authorities, like the Liberals spying on Parti Québécois members in the 70s.

[Jacob]

no, that wasn't explained to me.  They could be drug trafficker or weapons merchants who never directly interacted with ISIS or another terror group.  They could be criminal bands from Marseilles where they frequently solve their dispute with an AK-47.  All I know is they aren't supposed to have ties to muslim extremists.  Doesn't mean they are innocent, just they have other criminal or borderline criminal activities.

Okay thanks

[lustindarkness]

No nukes form orbit yet?

[garbon]

No nukes form orbit yet?

That's a bit rude to do to Paris.

[crazy canuck]

No nukes form orbit yet?

That's a bit rude to do to Paris.

The Nazi's didn't even shell the place.  Lusti worse than Hitler!

[lustindarkness]

No nukes form orbit yet?

That's a bit rude to do to Paris.

The Nazi's didn't even shell the place.  Lusti worse than Hitler!

I did not mean Paris, but yes, yes I am.

[Malthus]

No nukes form orbit yet?

That's a bit rude to do to Paris.

The Nazi's didn't even shell the place.  Lusti worse than Hitler!

I did not mean Paris, but yes, yes I am.

Well, of higher rank, anyway. Hitler never got beyond Corporal. 

[jimmy olsen]

The Post is going all in.


http://nypost.com/2015/11/16/obamas-patience-merely-gave-isis-time-to-grow/

...

Our military has the resources to shatter ISIS, but political correctness has penetrated so deep into the Pentagon that, even should a president issue the one-word order, "Win!," our initial actions would be cautious and halting. We've bred a generation of military leaders afraid of being prosecuted by their own government for the kind of errors inevitable in wartime. Instead of "leaning forward in the foxhole," our leaders lean on lawyers.

If lawyers had had to approve our World War II target lists, we couldn't have won. War is never clean or easy, and the strictures imposed on our military today just protect our enemies. Collateral damage and civilian casualties are part of combat and always will be. The most humane approach is to pile on fast and win decisively — which results in far less suffering than the sort of protracted agony we see in Syria.

The generals who won World War II would start by leveling Raqqa, the ISIS caliphate's capital. Civilians would die, but those remaining in Raqqa have embraced ISIS, as Germans did Hitler. The jihadis must be crushed. Start with their "Berlin."

Kill ten thousand, save a million.

Unthinkable? Fine. We lose.

And the jihadis? They'll always have Paris.

[mongers]

The Post is going all in.


http://nypost.com/2015/11/16/obamas-patience-merely-gave-isis-time-to-grow/

...

Our military has the resources to shatter ISIS, but political correctness has penetrated so deep into the Pentagon that, even should a president issue the one-word order, "Win!," our initial actions would be cautious and halting. We've bred a generation of military leaders afraid of being prosecuted by their own government for the kind of errors inevitable in wartime. Instead of "leaning forward in the foxhole," our leaders lean on lawyers.

If lawyers had had to approve our World War II target lists, we couldn't have won. War is never clean or easy, and the strictures imposed on our military today just protect our enemies. Collateral damage and civilian casualties are part of combat and always will be. The most humane approach is to pile on fast and win decisively — which results in far less suffering than the sort of protracted agony we see in Syria.

The generals who won World War II would start by leveling Raqqa, the ISIS caliphate's capital. Civilians would die, but those remaining in Raqqa have embraced ISIS, as Germans did Hitler. The jihadis must be crushed. Start with their "Berlin."

Kill ten thousand, save a million.

Unthinkable? Fine. We lose.

And the jihadis? They'll always have Paris.
[/QUOTE

Tim have you accidentally quoted from the dailymail style comments section or is that really the OpEd?

[jimmy olsen]

The Post is going all in.

Our military has the resources to shatter ISIS, but political correctness has penetrated so deep into the Pentagon that, even should a president issue the one-word order, "Win!," our initial actions would be cautious and halting. We've bred a generation of military leaders afraid of being prosecuted by their own government for the kind of errors inevitable in wartime. Instead of "leaning forward in the foxhole," our leaders lean on lawyers.

If lawyers had had to approve our World War II target lists, we couldn't have won. War is never clean or easy, and the strictures imposed on our military today just protect our enemies. Collateral damage and civilian casualties are part of combat and always will be. The most humane approach is to pile on fast and win decisively — which results in far less suffering than the sort of protracted agony we see in Syria.

The generals who won World War II would start by leveling Raqqa, the ISIS caliphate's capital. Civilians would die, but those remaining in Raqqa have embraced ISIS, as Germans did Hitler. The jihadis must be crushed. Start with their "Berlin."

Kill ten thousand, save a million.

Unthinkable? Fine. We lose.

And the jihadis? They'll always have Paris.

Tim have you accidentally quoted from the dailymail style comments section or is that really the OpEd?

Real OpEd by a former Lt. Colonel and author of some decent Clancyesque technothriller/war novels.

[Duque de Bragança]

This beats Syt's family connections on FB, fortunately it's not my family.

Dear friends, please, it's time to take down those French flags. I know you meant them as a signal of solidarity and attachment to some humanistic values that, for some historical reasons, Paris still seemed to embody. And while I've personally had ever since I was a kid a strong distaste for blue-white-and-red, I recognized that intention and shut my big mouth.
But president Hollande's speech, last night, sadly confirmed my fears -- I thought I was hearing a French translation of George W. Bush's post 9-11 speech. What the French flag stands for, now, is war, policing, and the state of exception (sic). And there is no reason to believe the results will differ: after Daesh, Bush's unholy child, get ready for Hollande's progeny in 5 or 10 years...
There are in the animal world some parasitic worms who infect the brains of insects to push them to a suicidal behaviour, so that they get eaten and the worm can pursue their lifecycle in their next host. I wish I could believe that such a worm has taken hold of our leaders -- because when I try to think of the possible motivations for their decisions, they seem so mean, cynical and inhumane that the "parasitic worm" hypothesis sounds like the optimistic one.

Bolded parts added and sic for state of exception, whatever that means, probably a reference to the emergency state

Flanby/Hollande worse than Hitler?

In other news, seems the Union nationale is over at the Assemblée Nationale.