Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Syt]

Not the kind of language I expect from The Times

[Tonitrus]

Also worrying...during the boring phase of this morning's event, the POTUS gave a pretty strong wording about the security of Poland.  When asked about the Baltic states..."they're in a tough neighborhood".

I just hope ya'll over there would be committed to Article 5 in case we falter.

[Valmy]

Also worrying...during the boring phase of this morning's event, the POTUS gave a pretty strong wording about the security of Poland.  When asked about the Baltic states..."they're in a tough neighborhood".

I just hope ya'll over there would be committed to Article 5 in case we falter.

And what country makes it a fucking tough neighborhood? Finland?

[Zoupa]

"In case" lol. NATO is dead my dude. Even if you guys elect a normal president next time who recommits the US to the international order and respects and enforces the documents signed, the damage is done.

Imagine if the russians had really conquered Ukraine in 3 days as they planned, and the US pulls out of NATO as it's doing now. The tens of thousands of russian pieces of equipment destroyed are now heading for the rest of Europe, along with the russian "army" of looters, murderers  and rapists. That's another thing Europeans should be on their knees thanking Ukraine for.

[Jacob]

One of the analysts I sometimes follow said that if Russia attacked NATO, it would likely be in the form of a small "ignorable" attack on a weaker or peripheral member. The idea being that it would be very tempting for most NATO countries to justify not responding.

Basically it would be designed to trigger a response of "why risk WWIII for a few square kilometres in a remote corner of Finland / for a small Baltic country that's not really Western anyhow," from the bigger NATO countries; which in turn would prove NATO useless.

Certainly the political environment is shaping up to be pretty well suited for such an attack.

[Jacob]

Actually, yeah... I think if Putin gets his "truce" now he will absolutely spend the next years up-arming before attacking again. But I expect that unless Europe really steps up, that attack is going to be on a NATO country not Ukraine.

[Sophie Scholl]

"In case" lol. NATO is dead my dude. Even if you guys elect a normal president next time who recommits the US to the international order and respects and enforces the documents signed, the damage is done.

Agreed. The era of long-term international treaties involving the US is dead. With the pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal in his first term, he killed the potential for the US to engage in treaties with enemies, with his second term and parts of his first, he's killed American involvement in economic and defense treaties. He has made the US into a nation like his friends North Korea and Russia: Pariahs on the international scene that no one will willing engage with.

[Valmy]

One of the analysts I sometimes follow said that if Russia attacked NATO, it would likely be in the form of a small "ignorable" attack on a weaker or peripheral member. The idea being that it would be very tempting for most NATO countries to justify not responding.

Basically it would be designed to trigger a response of "why risk WWIII for a few square kilometres in a remote corner of Finland / for a small Baltic country that's not really Western anyhow," from the bigger NATO countries; which in turn would prove NATO useless.

Certainly the political environment is shaping up to be pretty well suited for such an attack.

Which is why there needs to a European Army stationed in the East and backed by nuclear weapons. I don't think that is a some kind of secret.

Do I need to e-mail a few European heads of state of do they already know this?

[viper37]

One of the analysts I sometimes follow said that if Russia attacked NATO, it would likely be in the form of a small "ignorable" attack on a weaker or peripheral member. The idea being that it would be very tempting for most NATO countries to justify not responding.

Basically it would be designed to trigger a response of "why risk WWIII for a few square kilometres in a remote corner of Finland / for a small Baltic country that's not really Western anyhow," from the bigger NATO countries; which in turn would prove NATO useless.

Certainly the political environment is shaping up to be pretty well suited for such an attack.

Which is why there needs to a European Army stationed in the East and backed by nuclear weapons. I don't think that is a some kind of secret.

Do I need to e-mail a few European heads of state of do they already know this?

The heads of state are aware, and have been for a while.

Their population less so.

Everyone has been slow to react to the new-USSR.  Way too slow.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

One of the analysts I sometimes follow said that if Russia attacked NATO, it would likely be in the form of a small "ignorable" attack on a weaker or peripheral member. The idea being that it would be very tempting for most NATO countries to justify not responding.

Basically it would be designed to trigger a response of "why risk WWIII for a few square kilometres in a remote corner of Finland / for a small Baltic country that's not really Western anyhow," from the bigger NATO countries; which in turn would prove NATO useless.

Certainly the political environment is shaping up to be pretty well suited for such an attack.

Which is why there needs to a European Army stationed in the East and backed by nuclear weapons. I don't think that is a some kind of secret.

Do I need to e-mail a few European heads of state of do they already know this?

they know this, they've known this for years. But spines need to be grown and balls need to descend. And that's where the problem lies.

[mongers]

"In case" lol. NATO is dead my dude. Even if you guys elect a normal president next time who recommits the US to the international order and respects and enforces the documents signed, the damage is done.

Imagine if the russians had really conquered Ukraine in 3 days as they planned, and the US pulls out of NATO as it's doing now. The tens of thousands of russian pieces of equipment destroyed are now heading for the rest of Europe, along with the russian "army" of looters, murderers  and rapists. That's another thing Europeans should be on their knees thanking Ukraine for.

Exactly.

[PJL]

Well after this I certainly wouldn't be averse to Britain and France to cover their nuclear umbrella to the whole of European NATO and Ukraine. I agree that Zelensky had to go to the US today if only to go through the motions and at least try to get something out of it.
 
At least he didn't capitulate completely to US demands. If nothing, the whole thing would have helped bolster support to friendly European nations. In the end peace without freedom is no peace at all.

[Syt]

Well, international NATO units are already in the Baltics. Not huge amounts, but also not so few that IMHO those countries could just bail if Russia invades.

[crazy canuck]

European leaders with the exception of Orban react strongly in favour of Ukraine

[Jacob]

As they should.

I think the questions now is two-fold:

1) Can Europe avoid getting compromised by Russian subversion politically? I.e. how many Orbans and LePens will be in power?

2) Can Europe arm quickly and convincingly enough?