BREAKING NEWS - Malaysian airliner crashes on Russian-Ukrainian border

[Maladict]

And a reporter has been kidnapped in Donetsk.

[Tamas]

Meanwhile, UK intelligence officials have evidence that the rebels planned to mess up investigations at the crash site by scattering parts of other airplanes there.

http://news.sky.com/story/1306134/rebels-mh17-site-sabotage-plan-intercepted

[Tamas]

Apparently, two Ukrainian fighter planes have been shot down just now.

not seeing this anywhere

[Maladict]

Apparently, two Ukrainian fighter planes have been shot down just now.

not seeing this anywhere

Try google.

[Josquius]

A Hungarian blogger-turned-journalist whom I like pointed out the utter lack of a unified EU answer to this. He stated, and it is hard to argue with, that the EU does not exist, as far as foreign policy is concerned. Its member states, like the Dutch in this case, are left alone to deal with their foreign problems.

Which is kind of funny considering how the Russian side is so big on talking about eu imperialist policy

[Agelastus]

That still leaves open the question of whether this was a missile captured by the separatists or one provided to the separatists by the Russians.  My guess is the former, but that still leaves open the possibility of Russian technicians operating the thing.

edit: damnit, Malthus.

I must admit that I don't see any difference between the scenarios.

You don't?

If the missile was originally Ukrainian then the Russians have no direct responsibility and increasing sanctions due to the shootdown is unjustified.*

If the missile was originally Russian then they do have direct responsibility and increasing sanctions is justified and neccessary.

Had you asked me yesterday I would have said that the missile was 99% likely to have been one the Rebels siezed from the Ukrainian arsenal. Today, assuming the report alluded to above about Buks being seen crossing the border into Russia is accurate, I'd probably say that it's now 50/50 or worse.**

*In fact in this case there'd be a good argument that the Ukraine owed financial compensation for the deaths of the passengers rather than Russia due to their not adequately securing the weapon used.

**which surprises me assuming the doom-sayers who see Russia's end-game as being direct military intervention are correct. It's one of the stupider things I can imagine doing giving SAMs to amateurs when I expect to be sending my own planes into the area in a few weeks or months time.

[derspiess]

Apparently, two Ukrainian fighter planes have been shot down just now.

not seeing this anywhere

http://abcnews.go.com/International/ukrainian-jets-shot-defense-ministry/story?id=24674661

I've seen a couple other reports, and of course they also refer to the Su-25 as a fighter

[CountDeMoney]

Annoying, isn't it? Like using "clip" for "magazine"

MAH STURMOVIK

[Malthus]

That still leaves open the question of whether this was a missile captured by the separatists or one provided to the separatists by the Russians.  My guess is the former, but that still leaves open the possibility of Russian technicians operating the thing.

edit: damnit, Malthus.

I must admit that I don't see any difference between the scenarios.

There isn't much, but there is some.

We all know the seperatists are basically Russia's creatures. However, if they were handed the missile launcher by Russia directly, that is just one more bit of evidence pointing to Russia's involvement. Ditto if the guy actually firing the missile turns out to have been a Russian tech "volunteering".

[Razgovory]

You don't?

If the missile was originally Ukrainian then the Russians have no direct responsibility and increasing sanctions due to the shootdown is unjustified.*

If the missile was originally Russian then they do have direct responsibility and increasing sanctions is justified and neccessary.

Had you asked me yesterday I would have said that the missile was 99% likely to have been one the Rebels siezed from the Ukrainian arsenal. Today, assuming the report alluded to above about Buks being seen crossing the border into Russia is accurate, I'd probably say that it's now 50/50 or worse.**

*In fact in this case there'd be a good argument that the Ukraine owed financial compensation for the deaths of the passengers rather than Russia due to their not adequately securing the weapon used.

**which surprises me assuming the doom-sayers who see Russia's end-game as being direct military intervention are correct. It's one of the stupider things I can imagine doing giving SAMs to amateurs when I expect to be sending my own planes into the area in a few weeks or months time.

Since Grumbler and I are in agreement here, I don't think he'll object if I answer for him.  These aren't actually amateurs.  They are trained soldiers.  A machine like this is not something a militia man can just find, read the manual and use.  It requires specific training of a team of soldiers.  Ukraine has already repatriate the bodies of dead "rebels" back to Russia.  If a Russian soldiers kills someone with a weapon that was issued to them, one they looted, or one they bought by themselves is immaterial.  The guilt falls on Russia.

[derspiess]

Just playing devil's advocate here, there could theoretically be pro-Russian separatists who had experience with SA-11s during prior service in the Ukrainian army.  Or possibly a private Russian citizen with prior SA-11 experience sneaked across the border on his own accord to help man the captured equipment. 

Now I think we know what most likely happened, but how to prove it?

[Berkut]

FOr that matter, there is even a difference between "Hey, here is a SA-11 system, the people to operate it, and some training in how to use it" and "What's that? You captured a SA-11 from your oppressors? Well done! Here is an instruction manual. Play responsibly!". At least, there is a huge political difference.

[alfred russel]

Apparently, two Ukrainian fighter planes have been shot down just now.

I guess that makes 4 Air Malaysia airliners lost in the past few months. 

[The Minsky Moment]

Agelastus/derspiess/Berkut: distinction without a difference as I see it.

It matters only to the extent one elects to ignore the strings connecting the puppet to the master's hand.

Or as a common law lawyer might say: respondeat superior.

[Jacob]

FOr that matter, there is even a difference between "Hey, here is a SA-11 system, the people to operate it, and some training in how to use it" and "What's that? You captured a SA-11 from your oppressors? Well done! Here is an instruction manual. Play responsibly!". At least, there is a huge political difference.

There are some differences in how the situation came about and a bit in intent, but when considering the magnitude of the consequences, the degree of difference in the two scenarios fade to insignificance to me.

If the neighbour's young kid shot someone, I don't think there's much difference in culpability between the adult who gave them the gun vs. the adult who found them with the gun and then taught them how to turn the safety off, how to grip it, how to aim it, and then left them to have fun with their new toy.