[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

The "Open Government" reforms proposed today by the Liberals, and particularly the proportional voting proposal, seem like gimmicks to me.  But I am not really the target audience.  This election has really become a battle for voters who consider themselves "progressives".  So what is the reaction of our more progressively inclined Languishites?

[Josephus]

Hold me, I'm afraid.

The Cons have themselves to blame for being so stupid.  They brought us there, to the brink of the Abyss.

I think it makes more sense to blame the Liberals. No Canadian political party can maintain itself indefinitely in power (though they can and do last a long time) - they get tired, they get complacent, they get corrupt and dictatorial. However, in the past at least, it could be assumed that the Libs and Cons would replace each other - after the previous loser has served its necessary time in the wilderness, recharging its energies, purging itself, etc.

The problem here is that the Libs have failed to come through on this agenda - they have been in the wilderness and, intead of gaining wisdom and energy, they have allowed themselves to be distracted by their endless inability to discover a credible leader.

Thus, when the Cons collapse on cue - tired, worn out, corrupt and dictatorial like all Canadian political parties who have been too long in power - voters find they have no choice but to vote NDP.

But will they? That is the question.

[crazy canuck]

But will they? That is the question.

Survey says.... Yes.

At least for now.  If it gets tight again non Con voters may flock back to the familiar Liberals despite Justin.  But if the NDP play their cards right that won't happen.  And for what it is worth I think the NDP are doing just that. The NDP are sounding more and more like the home of the progressive vote while trying to sound as middle of the road as possible. The Liberals are sounding more and more like they are trying to convince voters they are a viable alternative.  Almost a complete role reversal between the NDP and Liberals.

[Malthus]

The "Open Government" reforms proposed today by the Liberals, and particularly the proportional voting proposal, seem like gimmicks to me.  But I am not really the target audience.  This election has really become a battle for voters who consider themselves "progressives".  So what is the reaction of our more progressively inclined Languishites?

It's the Lib problem in a nutshell - reliance on gimmicks to look attractive and relevant. The NDP are eating their lunch, and Mulcair is looking like the leader the Liberals needed. 

[Barrister]

I keep hearing a whole series of really quite biting Conservative ads against Justin Trudeau on the radio.

Seems as if the Conservatives better retrain their guns a little further to the left though...

[Valmy]

Wow. I am having a hard time getting my head around 'progressives' being an important demographic in a political campaign.

[Barrister]

Wow. I am having a hard time getting my head around 'progressives' being an important demographic in a political campaign.

The Progressives

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_of_Canada

[crazy canuck]

I keep hearing a whole series of really quite biting Conservative ads against Justin Trudeau on the radio.

Seems as if the Conservatives better retrain their guns a little further to the left though...

Yep, they are essentially doing the NDP's job for them.

[Josephus]

My fear is still that the Libs and NDP battle for the anti-harper vote and cancel each other out, giving harper another majority. The Libs and NDP exchanging voters will not be enough.
I find it interesting that both the NDP and now the Liberals are championing election reform

[Barrister]

My fear is still that the Libs and NDP battle for the anti-harper vote and cancel each other out, giving harper another majority. The Libs and NDP exchanging voters will not be enough.
I find it interesting that both the NDP and now the Liberals are championing election reform

Analysts often talk about races in that kind of manner, but really, that isn't how it works.

Take Alberta - the NDP didn't win by "uniting progressives", or "uniting the anti-PC forces".  People who had consistently voted PC switched their vote to NDP.  Hell my inlaws, fairly conservative rural people, voted NDP to my shock.

[Josephus]

Yes. I understand that. But so far I see little of the Cons switching to either the Libs or the NDP...so far the NDP gain has been at Lib losses, which means little to harper.

[Grey Fox]

However, Harper's base is not enough to re-elect him a majority. He needs Liberal voters to flock to him, like they did last time. Will they do it again? Or will they, this time, flock to the NDP?

[crazy canuck]

Yes. I understand that. But so far I see little of the Cons switching to either the Libs or the NDP...so far the NDP gain has been at Lib losses, which means little to harper.

It means everything to Harper.  The Conservative rationale for attacking the Libs is because they reasoned that most of those Liberal voters would go to the Cons.  That is historically what has occurred with the Cons and Liberals swapping voters and the NDP being held to only its core vote.

But what we are seeing as a significant shift.  Rather than the Liberal voters turning to the Conservatives they are moving in large numbers to the NDP.  The most significant number we have seen in recent polls is the very small percentage of voters who consider the Conservatives as their second choice.  When you consider in the context of the low number of committed Conservative voters it looks very grim for the Conservatives.

In short, the battle between the Liberals and NDP has historically been over a small percentage of vote on the left. What is now fundamentally different is they are also fighting over the large mass of Canadian voters in the middle.  And, significantly, the Conservatives don't seem to appeal to those voters.  I think it is going to take a very big misstep by Mulcair during the election for the NDP to lose this election. 

[Valmy]

I don't think that is that significant of a shift. It just means the Conservatives have been in power too long and the Liberals are screwing up their chance.

[Barrister]

Yes. I understand that. But so far I see little of the Cons switching to either the Libs or the NDP...so far the NDP gain has been at Lib losses, which means little to harper.

It means everything to Harper.  The Conservative rationale for attacking the Libs is because they reasoned that most of those Liberal voters would go to the Cons.  That is historically what has occurred with the Cons and Liberals swapping voters and the NDP being held to only its core vote.

But what we are seeing as a significant shift.  Rather than the Liberal voters turning to the Conservatives they are moving in large numbers to the NDP.  The most significant number we have seen in recent polls is the very small percentage of voters who consider the Conservatives as their second choice.  When you consider in the context of the low number of committed Conservative voters it looks very grim for the Conservatives.

In short, the battle between the Liberals and NDP has historically been over a small percentage of vote on the left. What is now fundamentally different is they are also fighting over the large mass of Canadian voters in the middle.  And, significantly, the Conservatives don't seem to appeal to those voters.  I think it is going to take a very big misstep by Mulcair during the election for the NDP to lose this election.

Oh this election is far from being over.

The thing about Mulcair is he hasn't exactly been impressive as opposition leader either.  He's been fairly invisible in fact.  What we're seeing right now is that with the luser off of Justin Trudeau, Mulcair is benefitting from a rejection of Harper and Trudeau, not any positive support for him (beyond the usual NDP base).  Once he's in the lead in the polls though he's going to be in the spotlight a great deal more.  We'll see how he handles it.