The EU thread

[Duque de Bragança]

That reminds me, did France ever get rid of that disjointed government debuff?

Seems to have transferred to the US somehow.

Sadly, no.  Trump controls all three branches of government, and the possibility of collapse is small.  Though some people seem to be happy we now have the spirit of political violence.

The French government didn't really collapse anymore after the 1936 election, though they shuffled around a bit. I guess I missed the collapse of France prior to military defeat.

The Franco-British Union did fail before being implemented so not a collapse, technically .  

[Jacob]

Could the EU + CPTPP be an effective trade block? Could it potentially serve as a trade dispute resolution mechanism as an alternative to the WTO?

In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a bold counter. The proposal would mean uniting the EU's 27 countries with the 12-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which includes the UK, to launch a new trade alliance without the United States, according to Politico.

https://www.latintimes.com/world-leaders-conspire-form-trade-org-without-us-trump-keeps-threatening-countries-tariffs-585755

As an aside, the phrasing of the headline is pretty funny: "World Leaders Conspire to Form Trade Org Without US As Trump Keeps Threatening Countries With Tariffs".

[HVC]

Would that work as a counterbalance to America though? Trades already pretty open between those countries as is, isn't it? Where blocks like that have power is in the whole "tariff one of us and we all tariff you" doesn't work when the idiot in charge is already tariffing everyone. But you know, with my usual caveat of I know nothing

[Legbiter]

Could the EU + CPTPP be an effective trade block? Could it potentially serve as a trade dispute resolution mechanism as an alternative to the WTO?

In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a bold counter. The proposal would mean uniting the EU's 27 countries with the 12-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which includes the UK, to launch a new trade alliance without the United States, according to Politico.

https://www.latintimes.com/world-leaders-conspire-form-trade-org-without-us-trump-keeps-threatening-countries-tariffs-585755

As an aside, the phrasing of the headline is pretty funny: "World Leaders Conspire to Form Trade Org Without US As Trump Keeps Threatening Countries With Tariffs".

Yeah I dunno.

The only configuration I see that can harmoniously tie together peace, trade, strategic resources, Holy Roman Empire hyper-specialized firms, etc is the Euro-American alliance.

The world is rapidly moving into a DragonBear bifurcated Cold War. The worst thing that could happen is if the Europeans learn nothing from being dependent on Russia for energy and move on to being totally dependent on China. 

[Jacob]

Yeah I don't think Europe should dependent on China - but a Europe + friendly pacific nations (incl. Canada) having a good and functional free trade relationship, that'd be great.

By the way, China is not part of the CPTPP.

[Jacob]

Relatedly, apparently Merz is committing Germany to have the largest armed forces in Europe:

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/28/g-s1-74591/germany-military-nato

[Legbiter]

Yeah I don't think Europe should dependent on China - but a Europe + friendly pacific nations (incl. Canada) having a good and functional free trade relationship, that'd be great.

By the way, China is not part of the CPTPP.

We'd still need the Americans. Sorry, no matter how annoying Trump and any subsequent Republican Presidents will be, (Democrats currently worship electoral losers and dead-end ideologies), Americans are indispensable for their "get stuff done" when it comes to childless Star Wars fandom Europe. 

[Sheilbh]

Relatedly, apparently Merz is committing Germany to have the largest armed forces in Europe:

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/28/g-s1-74591/germany-military-nato

I think if Merz is able to follow through and deliver he has the potential to be a transformative leader for Europe. €500 billion on infrastructure improvements in Germany (key for supply but also for investment driven demand within Europe's economy rather than Germany's mini-China export based economy as the model), a similar amount on re-arming and significant ambition on the size of the armed forces.

There's lots of ifs and buts and challenges on that but what he's been speaking about is potentially huge.

Especially as I'd add to that Poland's goal of an army of 500,000 and the general European move to increase spending. I'm not overly confident but I think Merz is the new element that might change things/unlock the situation.

Could the EU + CPTPP be an effective trade block? Could it potentially serve as a trade dispute resolution mechanism as an alternative to the WTO?

The WTO as a dispute resolution mechanism has been broken for a while because of US and China. This isn't just a Trump thing either. Obama started vetoing appointments to the relevant bodies. I think Trump and Biden escalated by vetoing all appointments to those bodies so it's no longer quorate. There have been proposals to reform it all of which have been vetoed by the US (under Biden).

I'd add that the Commission has already walked back the "replace the WTO" line.

The EU has proposed an alternative which I think has a few members, including China, Brazil and Canada. I think that might be more valuable than an alternative because China's in it - on the other hand I suppose it depends how much you think China abides by multi-lateral dispute resolution proceedings.

Having said all that I don't see why not and I think it's good to be creative. I would slightly caveat that at the minute trade deals with the EU normally take well over a decade to negotiate - so Japan took about 15 years, Mercosur negotiations started in the 90s had ups and downs before being finalised in 2019 and signed in December 2024 and now pending ratification. So I'd suggest it might need a bit more urgency or not normal process to be worth doing.

[Jacob]

Americans are indispensable for their "get stuff done" when it comes to childless Star Wars fandom Europe. 

I can't say I disagree, but mostly because I'm not sure I understand what you mean here.

Where specifically do you see America being indispensable for their "get stuff done"?

[Razgovory]

Americans are indispensable for their "get stuff done" when it comes to childless Star Wars fandom Europe. 

I can't say I disagree, but mostly because I'm not sure I understand what you mean here.

Where specifically do you see America being indispensable for their "get stuff done"?

I don't understand half of what he writes.  I may agree, I may not.  I just don't know.