[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

Yeah, I agree with this. And it is really the ongoing argument BB and I have.  My view is that the Conservatives would have been much better off not catering to the hard right and instead take a page from the Ontario PCs and go for the middle. Their whole strategy was based on the world that existed under Trudeau in which nobody was occupying the middle and so it was safer to cater to the extremes.

But it was inevitable that the Liberals would revert back to their usual ideological space (if not under Carney then another leader) and so the Conservatives ceded all that ground.

BB and others within the Conservative party take a very different view. Their position is that so long as they hold all of the right, they can win.  I think that is also Poilievre's world view given his history. I don't think he can stay in the character we saw in the concession speech for very long.

I think you're mischaracterizing at least my position.

The Conservatives holding their right flank is a necessary precondition to winning, but it by no means guarantees a win.  That's what makes it so difficult.

But if you ignore the PPC (or whomever) in order to only tack to the center you're guaranteed to lose.

[Jacob]

The Conservatives holding their right flank is a necessary precondition to winning, but it by no means guarantees a win.  That's what makes it so difficult.

But if you ignore the PPC (or whomever) in order to only tack to the center you're guaranteed to lose.

Indeed, that is the balancing act for the Conservative Leadership.

How do you shut down the challenge on the right as effectively as possible, while also appealing as much as possible towards people tending towards the centre-right and centre?

What combination of high priority, low priority but explicit, and implicit concession do you give to the various constituencies - especially when desires are mutually exclusive? And then, of course, you have to balance a desire to achieve your own agenda as well, and how are you perceived?

It's an interesting challenge (and something all political parties and politicians have to navigate).

[saskganesh]

If you let them into your house, you have to feed them.

That's the unsolvable problem with the PPC courtship.

On a related side note, in the previous election, a number of Green party supporters flipped to the PPC. Yeah. There's an enduring "none of the above" constituency which is intractable. I do not think they are worth the cost.

Eventually they will eat you. Like we have seen with the Tea Party.

[HVC]

So basically Canada is in an inevitable downwards trajectory to rightwing lunacy? Yay

[Grey Fox]

Up until the Eastern right realises that they need to distance themselves from Reform's control.

[Barrister]

So basically Canada is in an inevitable downwards trajectory to rightwing lunacy? Yay

No, it's not.

This is the frustration I often get arguing Canadian politics on Languish.

People who are otherwise comfortable voting for the Liberals want the Conservatives to just be blue-flavoured Liberals.  Liberals-Lite.  You might even call them "Red Tories".

I don't think Red Tories have ever won an election.  Someone like Robert Stanfield, a good Red Tory, never won an election.  Or Erin O'Toole.

No, who are the right-wing Canadian heroes?  Stephen Harper.  Mulroney is mixed, but he ran as a blue Tory and brought in the hugely controversial free trade.  Diefenbaker was no "Red Tory".

Bringing in PPC voters doesn't mean "feeding them".  You don't give them everything they want.  But you give them enough so they aren't looking elsewhere.  And it doesn't mean those voters are just evil and wrong about everything.  I keep bringing up a certain skepticism about immigration.  You don't need to do some nativist bullshit trying to claim that Canada is only for white people (or even - 'pure laine' people), but being in favour of reduced immigration is actually pretty popular, and certainly goes a long way to brining in the PPC-curious voters.

[PRC]

No, it's not.

This is the frustration I often get arguing Canadian politics on Languish.

People who are otherwise comfortable voting for the Liberals want the Conservatives to just be blue-flavoured Liberals.  Liberals-Lite.  You might even call them "Red Tories".

I don't think Red Tories have ever won an election.  Someone like Robert Stanfield, a good Red Tory, never won an election.  Or Erin O'Toole.

No, who are the right-wing Canadian heroes?  Stephen Harper.  Mulroney is mixed, but he ran as a blue Tory and brought in the hugely controversial free trade.  Diefenbaker was no "Red Tory".

Bringing in PPC voters doesn't mean "feeding them".  You don't give them everything they want.  But you give them enough so they aren't looking elsewhere.  And it doesn't mean those voters are just evil and wrong about everything.  I keep bringing up a certain skepticism about immigration.  You don't need to do some nativist bullshit trying to claim that Canada is only for white people (or even - 'pure laine' people), but being in favour of reduced immigration is actually pretty popular, and certainly goes a long way to brining in the PPC-curious voters.

This is nonsense.  Mark Carney has been described as a Red Tory.  If he was at the head of the Conservative party it would've been a landslide for them. 

O'Toole lacked a personality.  PP's populist messaging and verbal pablum about woke idealogies turned people off... his meaningless verb the noun slogans and his disdain for journalists that weren't hand-picked by his campaign manager cost him. 

Doug Ford at the head of the federal Conservative party would've won the Conservatives the election.  Maybe he'll win the next one for them?

[Jacob]

People who are otherwise comfortable voting for the Liberals want the Conservatives to just be blue-flavoured Liberals.  Liberals-Lite.  You might even call them "Red Tories".

That is the argument of the Reform wing of the party, sure.

I don't think Red Tories have ever won an election.  Someone like Robert Stanfield, a good Red Tory, never won an election.  Or Erin O'Toole.

I guess you mean federally, in terms of getting a government - because Red Tories have won many individual seats, and I'm pretty sure they've won a number of provincial elections as well.

Federally, Joe Clark defeated Trudeau in 1979 - and I'm pretty sure he'd be considered a Red Tory.

No, who are the right-wing Canadian heroes?  Stephen Harper.  Mulroney is mixed, but he ran as a blue Tory and brought in the hugely controversial free trade.  Diefenbaker was no "Red Tory".

I think that Mulroney is a right-wing hero (to the extent that he's seen as a hero) because he won, not because he embraced the Reform party ideals of what being right-wing means. In terms of substance there's at least an argument to be made that he was a Red Tory.

Bringing in PPC voters doesn't mean "feeding them".  You don't give them everything they want.  But you give them enough so they aren't looking elsewhere.

Giving "them enough so they aren't looking elsewhere" is exactly what "feeding them" means. It's the same as "playing footsie", just a different metaphor.

And it doesn't mean those voters are just evil and wrong about everything.  I keep bringing up a certain skepticism about immigration.  You don't need to do some nativist bullshit trying to claim that Canada is only for white people (or even - 'pure laine' people), but being in favour of reduced immigration is actually pretty popular, and certainly goes a long way to brining in the PPC-curious voters.

Being "pretty popular" has nothing to do with whether it's evil and wrong, or even whether it's correct or incorrect.

I agree that it's a winning issue to connect social issues with immigration and therefore advocate for curtailing immigration, so I'm not surprised the Conservatives are going that way. In fact I expect we'll see movement in that direction from the Liberals also (though, of course, in that case the Conservatives will position it as being insufficient).

The trick for the Conservatives is whether they can feed the PPC inclined voters sufficiently with things that are palatable to their other constituencies, and doesn't paint them as being too extreme/ bigoted to the part of the middle they may need to get across the finish line.

Immigration may be a winning issue there, as long as the Liberals don't lean in as well, and as long as the CPC doesn't make missteps like the "barbaric practices hotline" (which I understand Jenni Byrne to have been a big supporter of, if not the originator of the idea).

[Jacob]

Relatedly, I saw some social media guff with Jivani posting memes about Ford really being a Liberal.

[viper37]

Libs lost 1 MP in Terrebonne after a recount.
The Bloc wins by 44 votes after the final recount.

[viper37]

So basically Canada is in an inevitable downwards trajectory to rightwing lunacy? Yay

No, it's not.

This is the frustration I often get arguing Canadian politics on Languish.

People who are otherwise comfortable voting for the Liberals want the Conservatives to just be blue-flavoured Liberals.  Liberals-Lite.  You might even call them "Red Tories".

I don't think Red Tories have ever won an election.  Someone like Robert Stanfield, a good Red Tory, never won an election.  Or Erin O'Toole.

No, who are the right-wing Canadian heroes?  Stephen Harper.  Mulroney is mixed, but he ran as a blue Tory and brought in the hugely controversial free trade.  Diefenbaker was no "Red Tory".

Bringing in PPC voters doesn't mean "feeding them".  You don't give them everything they want.  But you give them enough so they aren't looking elsewhere.  And it doesn't mean those voters are just evil and wrong about everything.  I keep bringing up a certain skepticism about immigration.  You don't need to do some nativist bullshit trying to claim that Canada is only for white people (or even - 'pure laine' people), but being in favour of reduced immigration is actually pretty popular, and certainly goes a long way to brining in the PPC-curious voters.

Harper significantly tone down the right wing rhetoric, kept his most hardcore MPs in line, shutting down every abortion vote that came up from backbenchers instead of voting with them, unlike a certain recent leader.

Only in his last mandate did he came back further right, and he lost faced with Trudeau, who was 3rd in the polls.

I don't think Preston Manning never won anything East of Manitoba with the Reform, but I could be wrong about Ontario.

The Canadian Alliance began to make some grounds, but was still largely associated with its Reform past.

Surprised, it required them moving further toward the center to win.  They moved right, they lost.

They moved further right, they lost again.  This, despite an unprecedented wave of conservative immigration in Ontario that pushed many ridings to the right.  And massive online radicalization.  And a 4th mandate from the Liberal Party.  And a 20 point lead in the polls in January.

But yeah, let's do it, let's move even further right.  Don't stop until it's the Canadian Republican Party for real, not just in appearance.

[HVC]

Relatedly, I saw some social media guff with Jivani posting memes about Ford really being a Liberal.

She probably do something about him. He makes PP look positively anti trump. Start the smear machine... although I guess it's not a smear if it's true.

[saskganesh]

If you give PPC a bone, they will want meat. They will eat you BB.

Big Bubba Doug Ford gives people beer. Free beer, cheap beer, and now beer at 7-11. It's a stupid formula but it has worked out really well for him.

I guess that means you don't need protein, you just need carbs. PP lost his seat marching with the convoy. Ford stayed away, pushed the vax, pushed beer, and got re-elected.

 

[HVC]

Bringing in PPC voters doesn't mean "feeding them".  You don't give them everything they want.  But you give them enough so they aren't looking elsewhere.  And it doesn't mean those voters are just evil and wrong about everything.  I keep bringing up a certain skepticism about immigration.  You don't need to do some nativist bullshit trying to claim that Canada is only for white people (or even - 'pure laine' people), but being in favour of reduced immigration is actually pretty popular, and certainly goes a long way to brining in the PPC-curious voters.

The more you feed them the more they want. They won't be satiated and will demand more or will feel "betrayed" and not vote for you. You become beholden. It's happened time and again and I find the notion that it won't happen here misguided.

[HVC]

If you give PPC a bone, they will want meat. They will eat you BB.

Big Bubba Doug Ford gives people beer. Free beer, cheap beer, and now beer at 7-11. It's a stupid formula but it has worked out really well for him.

I guess that means you don't need protein, you just need carbs. PP lost his seat marching with the convoy. Ford stayed away, pushed the vax, pushed beer, and got re-elected.

 

Man of the people enough not to sicken the left and conservative enough not to lose the right. He ain't perfect but not the dumpster fire I feared.