Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Indeed on both above

[Josquius]

As I gather its.

USA- Official end to the war ASAP. On what  terms are unimportant. It just needs to hold long enough to get Trump his Nobel Peace Prize.


Russia- Official stance is Ukraine hands over all of the oblasts Russia has claimed and completely neuters itself so its evil Nazis (just meaning anti-Russian) can never threaten Russia again... Said more publicly than many get, its also understood that this is intended to be just a temporary pause with Russia to grab more of Ukraine in a few years.
In practice.... Russia are hurting. If Harris had won it would have collapsed within a year or two. Big debate over whether Putin is in full on Hitler in the bunker mode about this or is aware. They might well accept a temporary pause with battle lines as they are and maybe minimal exchanges of held territory to give more defensible positions for them and worse ones for Ukraine.

Ukraine- Official stance is Russia fuck off out of the whole country and let Ukraine be Ukraine.
In practice... I do think they've recognised Crimea is as good as gone without a complete and total collapse into anarchy of Russia.  A reset to 2022 lines is their realistic extremely best-case extreme. Which they know isn't going to happen.
They were against a temporary peace as they saw how the war was hurting Russia far more than it was hurting Ukraine with its flow of foreign aid. With that in doubt....
I do think Ukraine could actually accept a pause.  Though I also believe they've got a lot of thinking going on that you can't trust Russia (duh) and if/when Russia break the peace that makes the Ukrainian case for American aid even more obvious. Also as things are going now a pause for rearming is a lot more in Ukraine/Europe's favour than Russia's.
What is off the table though is a full peace treaty and recognising Russia's gains rather than just holding the border where it is and stopping the fighting.

Also key will be sanctions. Russia knows it is screwed if they stay as they are, even without the military draining them. Ukraine and the west know this too. If we could get a cease fire whilst sanctions continue... this would be in Ukraine's favour.

[Jacob]

My understanding is that the "pause" originated as a Ukrainian or Ukrainian-European proposal.

My expectation is that Russia will reject it. The question is whether they'll reject it by manipulating their assets inside the Trump administration to pivot on a dime; whether they'll reject it by giving a ridiculous counter proposal, and then whether the Trumpists take it at face value or not; or whether they'll pretend to accept it but just ignore it in practice.

[Legbiter]

They'll have to finesse it a bit, not seem to outright reject it.

[Legbiter]

Russia is ready to agree to the U.S.-proposed ceasefire in Ukraine but demands guarantees that Kyiv will not mobilize or train troops, nor receive military aid during it, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on March 13.

Speaking at a press conference with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Putin said that the end of hostilities should "address the original causes of the crisis," parroting the Kremlin's long-standing narrative about its all-out war against Ukraine.

BREAKING: Putin ready for ceasefire but demands 'guarantees' depriving Ukraine of aid

Yeah right on schedule.

[PJL]

It's less of a ceasefire and more of a demand for unconditional surrender to Ukraine.

[Legbiter]

Yeah let's hope Ukraine has bought a lot of Trumps' shitcoin. 

[Josquius]

I'm disappointed in the lack of snark in the reply. "I would love it if the underlying causes of the war were to be tackled- that being Russian soldiers entering Ukraine".
But diplomacy be diplomacy.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

maybe Z should have played it as an operation to remove bigly amounts of illegal immigrants and then asked Trump to have him build a wall, payed for by UA

[Tamas]

So are the Ukrainians in the Kursk region ARE surrounded and Trump was messaging about that because he knows from his own intelligence sources, or he heard from Putin and took it at face value, being the great negotiator that he is?

[Josquius]

So are the Ukrainians in the Kursk region ARE surrounded and Trump was messaging about that because he knows from his own intelligence sources, or he heard from Putin and took it at face value, being the great negotiator that he is?

It's possible. Not sure on thousands though.
From what I've heard they've withdrew a lot and most of their heavy weapons but now only have one road, under Russian fire, to get others out.

It does seem the potential to counter attack the Russian encirclment is large but... Ukraine never seems to do that. And they know better than me.

[Zoupa]

So are the Ukrainians in the Kursk region ARE surrounded and Trump was messaging about that because he knows from his own intelligence sources, or he heard from Putin and took it at face value, being the great negotiator that he is?

They've withdrawn in good order, no encirclement. Russians were pissed they couldn't manage their pincer move, so now they're claiming they let the Ukrainians withdraw as a gesture of goodwill lol. They're doing the usual flooding of the info zone with bullshit and feeding Trump whatever. He is of course lapping it up.

I still think the Kursk operation was worth it, despite the losses. I'm no military man but wars are more than military matters.

[Josquius]

Yeah, the name of the game is making sure the manpower and equipment  loss ratio is massively tilted against Russia. Kursk seems to have broadly done that. Plus the blow to putins prestige was nice.

Territory is just a tool to achieve that - one Ukraine has plenty of.
Often forgotten by less invested light analyses of the situation.


My usual "I don't think he's who he claims he is but he's broadly right anyway and looks into this stuff so I don't have to" guy had a good piece on Kursk. He was against it

https://themilitaryanalyst.com/2025/03/12/the-end-of-the-kursk-adventure/

[The Minsky Moment]

So are the Ukrainians in the Kursk region ARE surrounded and Trump was messaging about that because he knows from his own intelligence sources, or he heard from Putin and took it at face value, being the great negotiator that he is?

Rhetorical question I presumed.  I doubt Tulsi Gabbard took the trouble of drawing a picture of surrounded Ukranian soldiers, which is the only way intelligence information could find its way to Trump.  Unless some genius managed to sneak a mini-briefing into a Mike Lindell mypillow ad on Fox and Friends.

[mongers]

Well this is an interesting 'slip of the tongue' if true:

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Europe and Ukraine will be "done for" if Russia comes to an agreement with the US on a ceasefire. Lukashenko said Moscow and Washington would hold Europe's fate "in their hands".

I'll try to find a better source.

edit:
It's on AP and several news websites, maybe it's a mistranslation or I'm not reading it right?