Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Minsky Moment]

The other piece in the puzzle is that the very first actions the Trump administration made was to replace the US Attorneys for DC and Manhattan.  In the US, the Attorney General supervises but does not direct prosecutions; the US Attorney Offices do.  The DC office acting head is a far right activist from Missouri who boasts about his personal loyalty to Trump.  In NY, Trump's people put in an experienced prosecutor with impeccable right wing credentials (including a Scalia clerkship).  When she balked at carrying out the Eric Adams extortion scheme, she was dumped, followed by a purge of the entire office.   

DC is important because it any crime concerning political corruption in the federal government is likely to be handled there.  Manhattan because most financial crimes go there and because Trump still has substantial business assets there.

A lot of these executive orders relate to stuff Trump campaigned for, like brutalizing asylum seekers, dehumanizing trans men and women, and maximizing pollution output.  But no one was voting for Trump because they wanted more foreign corruption and money laundering.  There was no advocacy by anyone for such measures, at least not publicly.  Trump did not campaign on any of that. The systematic unravelling of anti-corruption enforcement is not about politics, it is about clearing the field so that everything can be sold, Crazy Eddie-style.  As long as it is done under the cover of "official acts", there is no risk

Trump likes to talk about how everything his administration does is the most or best in all of history.  It's never true.  But it could be true for the level of corruption. We could be in line for Orbanist levels of corruption but supersized to American levels of resources.   The business sector clearly thinks so, they are rallying to Trump not just because of fear, but because they don't want to be frozen out from the graft line.

[The Brain]

Lots of morons in the West love Putin and Russia. Trump is a moron in the West. As has been said, Putin doesn't need anything on Trump.

[Jacob]

Latvian paper on the perspective inside Russia:

The U.S. turning toward Russia, halting arms deliveries to Ukraine, and rumors of preparations for a possible sanctions rollback benefit the Kremlin. According to a "Delfi" source in Moscow, Russia is preparing its version of a peace treaty, but there is still no unified stance within the Russian elite regarding an agreement with the U.S. Oligarchs support the agreement, while the power faction is determined to continue the war.

Despite Donald Trump's statements, Russia and the U.S. have not yet made serious progress in negotiations. Russian and U.S. diplomats are expected to meet next week. On February 22, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov announced that the talks would focus on eliminating "irritants" in bilateral relations. The meeting will take place at the department head level. So far, during a meeting in Istanbul on February 27, Russian and U.S. representatives were only able to agree on the appointment of new ambassadors.

"Delfi" spoke with several informed sources in Moscow. They all requested anonymity due to concerns for their safety.

According to a representative from Russia's academic circles, the negotiations are primarily taking place between Russian and U.S. intelligence officials. The "Delfi" interlocutor claims that intelligence officers are the ones preparing the draft agreement. According to him, the Kremlin's list of demands aligns with its public stance. Russia plans to demand Ukraine's neutral status, Volodymyr Zelensky's resignation and new elections, retention of all occupied territories, and the lifting of sanctions. He claims that a draft agreement is currently being prepared.

According to other "Delfi" contacts, the situation within Russia's leadership is complex, and the draft agreement could merely be part of the Kremlin's game.

A "Delfi" interlocutor with extensive connections among Russian economic experts close to Putin's administration claims that the Kremlin's willingness to negotiate is influenced by the stance of Russian oligarchs close to Putin. They are primarily interested in reaching an agreement and lifting economic sanctions. "The economic situation in Russia is deteriorating by the day, and this worries Russian capitalists," he says.

Other "Delfi" sources confirm this information. According to them, the stance of the oligarchs is opposed by the heads of Russia's law enforcement agencies—special services. They are not interested in making agreements with the U.S. also because they believe Russia is winning in Ukraine and can achieve its goals by force.

At the same time, as a "Delfi" source from Russia's economic expert circles points out, the Kremlin does not trust Trump and worries that he may act solely in his own interests. According to him, Putin is not ready to make any deals and does not intend to back down from his demands: "He wants all of Ukraine and NATO's retreat to the 1997 borders." In his view, Putin and the security forces do not care about Russia's economic situation.

A source in Russia's academic circles recalls that a few years ago, during a private meeting in the Kremlin, Putin claimed that Europe is still occupied by U.S. troops. "For him, the withdrawal of U.S. troops not only from Eastern Europe but also from Western Europe will be the main symbolic event. Putin will see himself as the liberator of Europe," he assesses.

"Delfi" interlocutors also claim that Putin is negotiating with Trump as part of his game to influence both factions of Russian power. "Today, he concedes to the oligarchs, but that does not mean he will not change his position tomorrow," explains one of them. An analyst connected to Russia's diplomatic circles tells "Delfi" that despite the propaganda's enthusiastic response to Trump's actions, Moscow is taking a wait-and-see approach. "The Kremlin has already invested in negotiations with the U.S., so it will not abandon the deal now. They understand that the West is weakened, so they are not giving up on their demands. For now, Trump is doing everything the Kremlin needs. However, they understand that his current pro-Russian stance is part of his anti-China orientation. The Kremlin is not ready to break ties with Beijing, and Trump's desire to separate Russia from China is an additional reason for caution," the "Delfi" interlocutor notes. "The Kremlin does not really understand where Trump's policy will lead—to a confrontation between Russia and Europe or China."

However, according to sources, the Kremlin understands that without peace in Ukraine, Russia will not be able to withstand a direct confrontation with Europe backed by the U.S. "It must secure its rear, as Germany did in 1939. Trump is playing Stalin's role for Russia in 1939," he says, "but the situation is complicated by the fact that Russia is not ready to maintain this role permanently. At present, it can only move along the path set by either China or the U.S."

"Trump's conflict with Zelensky, the suspension of U.S. military aid, and talks about preparing to lift sanctions, in turn, play into the hands of those in power who want the conflict to continue," he says.

Original in Latvian:
https://www.delfi.lv/51042943/arzemes/120063699/delfi-avoti-maskava-netic-trampam-baidas-no-kinas-un-joprojam-cer-ar-speku-paklaut-ukrainu

[Tamas]

I was just thinking that the de facto but unofficial removal of the US nuclear umbrella from over NATO is a terrible risk. Russia might actually think they can get away with nuclear escalation, but they might not. It's a situation ripe for a ww1-like crisis where most actors thought they shouldn't or couldn't shy away from war in large part because they falsely assumed escalation would be contained.

[Jacob]

I was just thinking that the de facto but unofficial removal of the US nuclear umbrella from over NATO is a terrible risk. Russia might actually think they can get away with nuclear escalation, but they might not. It's a situation ripe for a ww1-like crisis where most actors thought they shouldn't or couldn't shy away from war in large part because they falsely assumed escalation would be contained.

Two questions:

• Are the French and British nuclear weapons sufficient to obliterate Russia?
• In a theoretical Russian first strike, what would their target be? Kyiev? Ukrainian army formations? Other European capitals?

Also, I expect the Chinese would be very uninterested in Russia using nukes.

[Syt]

Speech of Sen. Claude Malhuret in French parliament. Unfortunately the only English subbed version of his speech I found.

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1j46edt/we_are_fighting_against_a_dictator_backed_by_a/

Not sure if he's a loon, but I found his speech very poignant and on point. :pickelhaube:

Video in French pour les francophones:

[mongers]

I was just thinking that the de facto but unofficial removal of the US nuclear umbrella from over NATO is a terrible risk. Russia might actually think they can get away with nuclear escalation, but they might not. It's a situation ripe for a ww1-like crisis where most actors thought they shouldn't or couldn't shy away from war in large part because they falsely assumed escalation would be contained.

Two questions:

• • Are the French and British nuclear weapons sufficient to obliterate Russia?
• • In a theoretical Russian first strike, what would their target be? Kyiev? Ukrainian army formations? Other European capitals?

Also, I expect the Chinese would be very uninterested in Russia using nukes.[/list]

It depends how much Trumpian intelligence services give to Purin and if the US navy is ordered to interfere with Fr/UK SLBMs operations.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Speech of Sen. Claude Malhuret in French parliament. Unfortunately the only English subbed version of his speech I found.

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1j46edt/we_are_fighting_against_a_dictator_backed_by_a/

Not sure if he's a loon, but I found his speech very poignant and on point. :pickelhaube:

Video in French pour les francophones:

This is France's hour. Viva la France! 

[Zoupa]

Macron just said he's ready to extend the French nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe and discussions are underway.

[mongers]

Speech of Sen. Claude Malhuret in French parliament. Unfortunately the only English subbed version of his speech I found.

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1j46edt/we_are_fighting_against_a_dictator_backed_by_a/

Not sure if he's a loon, but I found his speech very poignant and on point. :pickelhaube:

Video in French pour les francophones:

..snip..

Most excellent.

[Grey Fox]

Macron just said he's ready to extend the French nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe and discussions are underway.

That was a very good speech. I am really impressed by it.

Canada's future is, now, really bad. Maybe we'll get a chance to immigrate to France.

[Zoupa]

I think there's a better chance of the US disintegrating than them invading.

[Jacob]

I think there's a better chance of the US disintegrating than them invading.

I'll certainly be watching developments with great interest.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

that speech didn't hold back. But we'll need accompanying action.
Proof of the pudding is in the eating, and all that.

edit: good thing in calling the trumpists and useful idiots a bunch of surrendermonkeying-Pétain-fanboys.

[Tamas]

Speech of Sen. Claude Malhuret in French parliament. Unfortunately the only English subbed version of his speech I found.

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1j46edt/we_are_fighting_against_a_dictator_backed_by_a/

Not sure if he's a loon, but I found his speech very poignant and on point. :pickelhaube:

Video in French pour les francophones:

Excellent speech.