2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Tamas]

I do recall reading a Reddit poster who was an Ohio Republican voting for Harris.  He implored the others on that liberal subreddit to please not argue politics with their Republican friends who may be on the fence, because he saw multiple times how it snaps them back into Trump territory.  There is something to be said about not triggering people's defensiveness and letting them arrive at a conclusion on their own.

I think it would be a mistake (and patronising) to suggest most voters didn't vote based on their own conclusions but simply as they were "triggered."

Yeah, especially as they see themselves the "no nonsense" side, I am not keen to walk on egg shells lest I disturb he delicate mental balance of people voting fascist.

I think it goes back to what I think should be the top question:  do you want to feel superior about yourself or do you want to win elections?

I am pretty sure not telling them they are wrong to vote Trump will not stop them voting Trump.

[DGuller]

I'm calling it, there is just nothing going Kamala's way, nothing at all.  Every update is just an additional nail in her coffin.  The left really needs to get its shit together and decide whether it wants to win elections or signal its virtues.

Well, courting Republicans clearly hasn't worked, so next time maybe try going for more left-wing voters?

I'd say let's try not losing the ones we have. 

Guys, I hate to make it about myself, but I think it's been clear that for a while I've been really annoyed with the left, and how it became incredibly dogmatic on some topics.  If you think that I'm just being a unique snowflake, then you're really in a bubble. 

What's really disheartening to see here is that so many here are doubling down on "fuck, we're just too awesome to win elections against scum, we should commit to more awesomeness".  Hopefully it's just the initial disappointment and not the representative mindset.

[Josquius]

I'm calling it, there is just nothing going Kamala's way, nothing at all.  Every update is just an additional nail in her coffin.  The left really needs to get its shit together and decide whether it wants to win elections or signal its virtues.

Well, courting Republicans clearly hasn't worked, so next time maybe try going for more left-wing voters?

I think any piece of shit left-wing voter who held their nose and withhehld their vote deserves to see the collapse of any of their pet causes. See if those consequences are more to their liking.

They don't care.  They like it that way, theh have a reason to complain about life being miserable.

No doubt this describes some people. But are they really significant enough in number to matter? Do we have data on this?

The far left not voting for a moderate conservative to beat a fascist is indeed dumb. But fairly to be expected I'd say.
As you say lots of kooky accerationist theories.

What's far worse are those who really should know better, who directly stand to be in the firing line, but who have decided the funny racist woman hating crook is a better choice than a serious woman.

[Josquius]

I'm calling it, there is just nothing going Kamala's way, nothing at all.  Every update is just an additional nail in her coffin.  The left really needs to get its shit together and decide whether it wants to win elections or signal its virtues.

Well, courting Republicans clearly hasn't worked, so next time maybe try going for more left-wing voters?

I'd say let's try not losing the ones we have. 

Guys, I hate to make it about myself, but I think it's been clear that for a while I've been really annoyed with the left, and how it became incredibly dogmatic on some topics.  If you think that I'm just being a unique snowflake, then you're really in a bubble. 

What's really disheartening to see here is that so many here are doubling down on "fuck, we're just too awesome to win elections against scum, we should commit to more awesomeness".  Hopefully it's just the initial disappointment and not the representative mindset.

Nobodies venting on a small message board amongst a group you have known years isn't the same thing as actual democrat party strategy in action.
Here it's perfectly fine to say fuck trump voters with a rusty spoon. Obviously not a recommendation for politicians to try and follow through with.

I do recall reading a Reddit poster who was an Ohio Republican voting for Harris.  He implored the others on that liberal subreddit to please not argue politics with their Republican friends who may be on the fence, because he saw multiple times how it snaps them back into Trump territory.  There is something to be said about not triggering people's defensiveness and letting them arrive at a conclusion on their own.

I think it would be a mistake (and patronising) to suggest most voters didn't vote based on their own conclusions but simply as they were "triggered."

It would be a mistake to generalise about millions of people in anyway.
But this definitely does describe a certain group of people in at least part of their thinking. It's fairly basic psychology.

[Tamas]

I'm calling it, there is just nothing going Kamala's way, nothing at all.  Every update is just an additional nail in her coffin.  The left really needs to get its shit together and decide whether it wants to win elections or signal its virtues.

Well, courting Republicans clearly hasn't worked, so next time maybe try going for more left-wing voters?

I'd say let's try not losing the ones we have. 

Guys, I hate to make it about myself, but I think it's been clear that for a while I've been really annoyed with the left, and how it became incredibly dogmatic on some topics.  If you think that I'm just being a unique snowflake, then you're really in a bubble. 

What's really disheartening to see here is that so many here are doubling down on "fuck, we're just too awesome to win elections against scum, we should commit to more awesomeness".  Hopefully it's just the initial disappointment and not the representative mindset.

Why don't we turn that around? Was the Right's answer to losing twice to Obama was to say "ok let's step back, listen to why the other half of the country was an N word who wants to ruin the country, and tone down the arrogance" or did they go full speed on the "other side is scum and enemies" bit?


But, you do have a point however what you are ignoring is that the wokeism you hate is a made-up issue. Not in the sense that it doesn't exist at all, but in the sense of practical impact on people's lives.

Let me confirm, as someone who has closely followed Hungarian politics which frankly is turning out to be the pioneer of the same dynamics playing out with some delay in the US, you absolutely do NOT need real issues to whip up fear when you have a dominating hold on your target demographics' media.

You walk back on trans rights, you kick out immigrants etc. and you will find yourself fighting again for gay rights and women's rights and who knows what else.

[DGuller]

But, you do have a point however what you are ignoring is that the wokeism you hate is a made-up issue. Not in the sense that it doesn't exist at all, but in the sense of practical impact on people's lives.

This is bubble thinking.  The left really needs to understand just how much resentment on the very fucking left their woke dogma is causing.  Doesn't mean that everyone on the left with resentment stops voting left, but to me all you people who minimize the impact of wokedom just seem to live in a different reality.  I understand why, the left does its best to shut off critical discussions of wokedom at the root, but please stop that minimization.

[frunk]

Not to mention there's strong indications that a lot of the lost votes were on the far left side of the party, not the right.

I mean the Harris campaign got the endorsement of prominent Republicans, that doesn't strike me as being too far to the left.

You can't control what everyone says on social media that might be associated with your side, and to hope that somehow the other side won't find (or make up) a soundbite to exploit and whip up fears is pointless.

[Josquius]

But, you do have a point however what you are ignoring is that the wokeism you hate is a made-up issue. Not in the sense that it doesn't exist at all, but in the sense of practical impact on people's lives.

This is bubble thinking.  The left really needs to understand just how much resentment on the very fucking left their woke dogma is causing.  Doesn't mean that everyone on the left with resentment stops voting left, but to me all you people who minimize the impact of wokedom just seem to live in a different reality.  I understand why, the left does its best to shut off critical discussions of wokedom at the root, but please stop that minimization.

You still don't get it.
The main source of woke dogma is from the right.
As Tamas said all it took was one ugly boxer and they were off. Zero regard for facts. Just... Red mist and concern trolling for "female" rights.

"Woke" absolutely is a real issue. But it's not the issue the right pretend it is. The centre and even much of the left generally have too many actual concerns to worry about fine tuning minority rights or somehow completely flipping the current zeitgeist and massively pushing forward trans rights.

The true issue of woke is social media and this distorted idea that somebody else having rights means you have less rights.
It's just an echo of the same zero sum shit too many believe about economics.

Fair enough the approach of ignoring it that Harris followed was wrong. But even more wrong would be just surrendering and going "Facebook says criminals posing as trans people are going to women's loos just to rape real women? OK. Trans people are banned."

A better approach was seen in Walz I think. He put it very neatly in a relatable working class way. It's about freedom. Mind your business and let others mind theirs.
Get it mentioned and out of the way then say more important than policing whether MLK is somebody whose work kids should be exposed to is the actual issues in the here and now.

Far left people who are really really obsessed with infeasible expansions to minority rights will always be a thing. They're not going anywhere. It needs to be stressed that's not what the centre is thinking about at all.

[Caliga]

It'll take a while to process this all, but my initial thoughts are:

1. The entire DNC leadership should resign.  They have completely lost touch with the American people.

OR

2. America just hates it leadership so much that the 'incumbent' will always be blamed for its problems, no matter what.

I hope 2 is true, and if so I predict the Democrats and likely Tim Walz will win the 2028 election.

[Josquius]

It'll take a while to process this all, but my initial thoughts are:

1. The entire DNC leadership should resign.  They have completely lost touch with the American people.

OR

2. America just hates it leadership so much that the 'incumbent' will always be blamed for its problems, no matter what.

I hope 2 is true, and if so I predict the Democrats and likely Tim Walz will win the 2028 election.

Is walz a serious prospect?
I do like what I've seen from him. He seems to hit the right chords and imagine he does well with the groups they need to win.
But I was thinking someone like him rather than he himself.

The worry with 2 is the American economy is the envy of the world. It just takes time to trickle down. Trump might take credit for Bidens good work.

[Grey Fox]

That's naive of you, Cal. Elections are a thing of the past.

[Oexmelin]

1. Is pretty apt, I think. My sense is that the DNC headquarters are chasing trends and hunting for tiny slivers of the electorate. I don't think it's a winning strategy: I still think they haven't figured out what to do when confronted with proto fascists (or they just don't really care that much).

[Syt]

Voter shift per NYT. Longer arrows = bigger shift:

[Caliga]

Trump might take credit for Bidens good work.

Nah, Trump would never take credit for someone else's work.

[Legbiter]

It'll take a while to process this all, but my initial thoughts are:

1. The entire DNC leadership should resign.  They have completely lost touch with the American people.

OR

2. America just hates it leadership so much that the 'incumbent' will always be blamed for its problems, no matter what.

I hope 2 is true, and if so I predict the Democrats and likely Tim Walz will win the 2028 election.

Maybe finally clear out the geriatric dross.