2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Legbiter]

Looks like she's cooked.

Man, I was good with just one season of the Trump show. 

[DGuller]

I'm calling it, there is just nothing going Kamala's way, nothing at all.  Every update is just an additional nail in her coffin.  The left really needs to get its shit together and decide whether it wants to win elections or signal its virtues.

[HVC]

So, if it does indeed come to fruition, who's gonna get the blame? Biden or Harris?

[DGuller]

So, if it does indeed come to fruition, who's gonna get the blame? Biden or Harris?

Biden should get most of it, first for his reckless policy on choosing his VP, and then for his reckless decision to run again, which then left us with only his reckless choice of a VP as an option.  Harris did better than I expected, but my expectations were pretty low for her.

[Admiral Yi]

If you guys are planning group suicide based on anything other than the NYT needle, I'd sure like to know about it.

I checked the 538 site and apart from the fact that they think Selzer got it disastrously wrong in Iowa, I'm not seeing armaggedon.  Looking at Moldy's 270 site it looks like it'll come down to blue wall, just like it's been the whole campaign.

What do the NYT and y'all know that I don't know?

[HVC]

I did give the possibility of a turn around, but I've been pessimistic from the start.


*edit* just going by the Google election tracker. Seeing a lot of pink and red.

[jimmy olsen]

Yeah... I've come to terms with it. She lost.

Is she somehow pulls out a win, I'll be overjoyed, but I'm not expecting it anymore


As for who's to blame, I think she ran about as good a race as could be expected, certainly better than Hillary. However, the inflation killed her and she or any other candidate, couldn't do much about that.

[Grey Fox]

I'm trying to keep being optimistic but I'm failing.

This is how fascism comes to America. In the end, Putin & Xi won. They can have their Empires back.

Enjoy your deportation camps, dumb Americans.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Two key lessons for Democrats from this:
1. Lie, lie, lie. Tell everyone what they want to hear, even if it's contradictory. Don't bother with honesty.
2. Promise to brutalize others. Americans don't want brotherly love. They want you to hurt the out group, and will pay you for it.

[DGuller]

If you guys are planning group suicide based on anything other than the NYT needle, I'd sure like to know about it.

I checked the 538 site and apart from the fact that they think Selzer got it disastrously wrong in Iowa, I'm not seeing armaggedon.  Looking at Moldy's 270 site it looks like it'll come down to blue wall, just like it's been the whole campaign.

What do the NYT and y'all know that I don't know?

NYT needle seems to be the most sophisticated statistical way to get a live read.  County by county, it checks the emerging results against expectation, and projects accordingly.  I suspect that the sources you're following are just laggier, and as I said, I think even the needle is having a bit too much ballast to swing as rapidly as it should.

I just don't see how you can be so chill with the needle being at 80%+ and the betting markets being at 90%.  I mean, 10% chance is still a chance, it's like pair of deuces against AK, with A on the flop.  You can still find one of the deuces on turn or river, but it's not where you want to be.

[Admiral Yi]

538 has live ABC feed and blue wall looks bad.

[Grey Fox]

Fucking Joe Rogan.

[HVC]

Two key lessons for Democrats from this:
1. Lie, lie, lie. Tell everyone what they want to hear, even if it's contradictory. Don't bother with honesty.
2. Promise to brutalize others. Americans don't want brotherly love. They want you to hurt the out group, and will pay you for it.

It also appears that southerners and fly over staters aren't ready for a woman president

[frunk]

Two key lessons for Democrats from this:
1. Lie, lie, lie. Tell everyone what they want to hear, even if it's contradictory. Don't bother with honesty.
2. Promise to brutalize others. Americans don't want brotherly love. They want you to hurt the out group, and will pay you for it.

Don't forget voter suppression, gerrymandering, fearmongering, billionaires spreading slander and stupidity, book banning and hollowing out of public education to keep people ignorant.

I'm sure there's others.

[Admiral Yi]

NYT needle seems to be the most sophisticated statistical way to get a live read.  County by county, it checks the emerging results against expectation, and projects accordingly.  I suspect that the sources you're following are just laggier, and as I said, I think even the needle is having a bit too much ballast to swing as rapidly as it should.

I just don't see how you can be so chill with the needle being at 80%+ and the betting markets being at 90%.  I mean, 10% chance is still a chance, it's like pair of deuces against AK, with A on the flop.  You can still find one of the deuces on turn or river, but it's not where you want to be.

OK, thanks.